Knicks vs. Heat Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets For Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 5 – Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Julius Randle and the New York Knicks (47-35) will look to fend off Bam Adebayo’s Miami Heat (44-38) on May 10, 2023. The Knicks are a 3.5-point favorite. The point total for the game is 209.

Knicks vs. Heat Odds

• Knicks odds to win: -158
• Heat odds to win: +135
• Spread: Knicks (-3.5)
• Total: 209

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Game Time and Information

• When: Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
• Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
• TV: TNT

Who Will Win Knicks vs. Heat?

Knicks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Knicks are 15-12 against the spread when favored by 3.5 points or more this season.

In games this year in which they were an underdog by 3.5 points or more, the Heat have a 7-8 record against the spread.

The Knicks and the Heat combine to average 16.5 more points per game than the over/under of 209 set for this game.

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 222.9 points per game, 13.9 more than the over/under for this matchup.

The Knicks’ average point total in outings this season is 229.1, 20.1 points higher than the total in this game.

Miami’s games this year have averaged a total of 219.3 points, 10.3 more than the point total in this matchup.

So far this season, New York has compiled a 45-35-2 record against the spread.

So far this year, the Heat have compiled a 30-48-4 record against the spread.

Knicks Stats & Insights

The Knicks average 116 points per game (11th in the league) while allowing 113.1 per contest (12th in the NBA). They have a +240 scoring differential overall and outscore opponents by 2.9 points per game.

The Knicks come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 4.6 boards. They are recording 46.6 rebounds per game (second in the league) compared to their opponents’ 42 per outing.

New York makes 12.6 three-pointers per game (11th in the league) compared to its opponents’ 13. It shoots 35.4% from deep while its opponents hit 35.7% from long range.

The Knicks’ 114.9 points per 100 possessions on offense rank sixth in the NBA, and the 111.7 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 16th in the league.

In 2022-23, the Knicks’ offense has been better at home, where they average 117.3 points per game, compared to on the road, where they score 114.8 per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been slightly better when playing at home, where they give up 113 points per game, versus on the road, where they allow their opponents to score 113.2 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in league) and giving up 109.8 (second in NBA).

Miami is 27th in the league at 40.6 rebounds per game. That’s 1.3 fewer than the 41.9 its opponents average.

The Heat make 12 three-pointers per game (16th in the league) while shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc (27th in NBA). They are making 1.1 fewer threes than their opponents, who drain 13.1 per game at 36.7%.

The Heat rank 25th in the league averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

In 2022-23 Miami is scoring 3.9 more points per game at home (111.4) than on the road (107.5).

Knicks Key Players to Watch

Randle puts up 25.1 points and 10 rebounds per game, with 4.1 assists.

Jalen Brunson’s averages this season are 24 points, 3.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.

Randle makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Knicks, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.8 per contest.

Josh Hart averages 1.2 takeaways per game, and Mitchell Robinson records 1.8 rejections per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo is at the top of the Heat scoring and rebounding leaderboards with 20.4 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game to go with 3.2 assists per contest this season.

Jimmy Butler’s per-game averages this season are 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds.

Max Strus averages 2.5 made threes per game.

The Heat’s defensive efforts get a lift from Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game.

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Knicks (- 3.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (209)
  

• Prediction:
  Knicks 114 – Heat 109

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