Nuggets vs. Lakers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets For Western Conference Finals Game 1 – Tuesday, May 16, 2023

The Denver Nuggets (53-29) are 6.5-point favorites as they are set to face off against the Los Angeles Lakers (43-39) on May 16, 2023. A 222.5-point total is set for the game.

Nuggets vs. Lakers Odds

• Nuggets odds to win: -268
• Lakers odds to win: +218
• Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
• Total: 222.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
• Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
• TV: ESPN

Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Lakers?

Nuggets and Lakers Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Nuggets have a 15-14-1 record against the spread when favored by 6.5 points or more this season.

In games this year in which they were an underdog by 6.5 points or more, the Lakers have a 5-12-1 record against the spread.

The two teams average a combined 10.5 more points per game (233) than this game’s over/under of 222.5 points.

Denver and Los Angeles have seen its opponents average a combined 6.6 more points per game than the over/under of 222.5 set in this matchup.

The average over/under the Nuggets have had set in games this season is 5.8 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average over/under in Los Angeles’ games this year is 11.3 more points than the point total of 222.5 for this outing.

Denver is 44-36-2 against the spread this season.

So far this season, the Lakers have compiled a 40-39-3 record against the spread.

Nuggets Stats & Insights

The Nuggets outscore opponents by 3.3 points per game (scoring 115.8 points per game to rank 12th in the league while allowing 112.5 per outing to rank eighth in the NBA) and have a +273 scoring differential overall.

The Nuggets win the rebound battle by 2.2 boards on average. They collect 43 rebounds per game, which ranks 18th in the league, while their opponents grab 40.8 per contest.

Denver connects on 11.8 three-pointers per game (18th in the league) compared to its opponents’ 11.4. It shoots 37.9% from deep while its opponents hit 34.4% from long range.

The Nuggets rank second in the NBA with 116.3 points scored per 100 possessions, and 19th in the league defensively with 112.9 points conceded per 100 possessions.

So far in 2022-23, the Nuggets’ offense has been much better at home, where they average 119.4 points per game, compared to on the road, where they average 112.2 per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been much better at home, where they surrender 109.6 points per game, versus on the road, where they allow their opponents to average 115.3 per game.

Lakers Stats & Insights

The Lakers put up 117.2 points per game (sixth in league) while allowing 116.6 per outing (20th in NBA). They have a +47 scoring differential.

Los Angeles is sixth in the league at 45.7 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 44.9 its opponents average.

The Lakers knock down 10.8 three-pointers per game (24th in the league), 1.7 fewer than their opponents. They are shooting 34.6% from beyond the arc (24th in NBA) and opponents are shooting 34.4%.

The Lakers average 111.8 points per 100 possessions on offense (19th in league), and allow 111.5 points per 100 possessions (14th in NBA).

At home, Los Angeles scores 117 points per game. On the road, it averages 117.3.

Nuggets Key Players to Watch

Nikola Jokic puts up 24.5 points and 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game.

The Nuggets get three three-pointers per game out of Michael Porter Jr..

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averages 1.5 steals per game, while Aaron Gordon has 0.8 blocks per contest.

Lakers Key Players to Watch

LeBron James racks up 28.9 points per game. He also contributes 8.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game this season.

Anthony Davis has per-game averages of 25.9 points, 2.6 assists and 12.5 rebounds this season.

Malik Beasley hits 2.9 threes per game.

Jarred Vanderbilt’s 1.1 steals and Davis’ two blocks per game are important to the Lakers’ defensive performance.

Nuggets vs. Lakers Prediction

• Pick ATS: Lakers (+ 6.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (222.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Nuggets 118 – Lakers 112

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