Celtics vs. Heat Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets For Eastern Conference Finals Game 3 – Sunday, May 21, 2023

Bam Adebayo’s Miami Heat (44-38) will look to earn an upset of Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics (57-25) on May 21, 2023. The Celtics are a 4.5-point favorite. A 214.5-point total is set for the game.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

• Celtics odds to win: -179
• Heat odds to win: +152
• Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
• Total: 214.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
• TV: TNT

Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

Celtics and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Celtics are 24-28-1 against the spread when favored by 4.5 points or more this season.

In games this season in which they were an underdog by 4.5 points or more, the Heat have a 5-8 record against the spread.

The Celtics and the Heat combine to average 12.9 more points per game than the over/under of 214.5 set for this game.

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 221.2 points per game, 6.7 more than the point total in this matchup.

The average total the Celtics have had in their matchups this year is 14.9 more points than this particular game’s point total.

The average total in Miami’s games this year is 4.8 more points than the point total of 214.5 in this outing.

Boston has a 44-35-3 record against the spread this season.

So far this season, the Heat have compiled a 30-48-4 record against the spread.

Celtics Stats & Insights

The Celtics average 117.9 points per game (fourth in the league) while giving up 111.4 per outing (fourth in the NBA). They have a +535 scoring differential overall and outscore opponents by 6.5 points per game.

The 45.3 rebounds per game the Celtics average rank seventh in the league, and are 1.3 more than the 44 their opponents collect per contest.

Boston connects on 4.4 more threes per game than the opposition, 16 (second-most in the league) compared to its opponents’ 11.6.

The Celtics average 115.7 points per 100 possessions on offense (third in the league), and give up 108.8 points per 100 possessions (third in the NBA).

So far in 2022-23, the Celtics’ offense has been much better at home, where they score 120.5 points per game, compared to road games, where they put up 115.4 per game. Defensively, they have been better at home, where they give up 110.5 points per game, versus on the road, where they allow their opponents to average 112.4 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in league) and giving up 109.8 (second in NBA).

Miami is 27th in the league at 40.6 rebounds per game. That’s 1.3 fewer than the 41.9 its opponents average.

The Heat hit 12 three-pointers per game (16th in the league) while shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc (27th in NBA). They are making 1.1 fewer threes than their opponents, who drain 13.1 per game at 36.7%.

The Heat average 110.4 points per 100 possessions (25th in league), while conceding 110.6 points per 100 possessions (ninth in NBA).

Miami scores 111.4 points per game at home, and 107.5 on the road.

Celtics Key Players to Watch

Tatum averages 30.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, with 4.6 assists.

Marcus Smart’s averages this season are 11.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game.

The Celtics get 3.2 three-pointers per game out of Tatum.

Smart averages 1.5 steals per game, while Derrick White has 0.9 blocks per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo has been among the team’s best in both scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game) while adding 3.2 assists per contest.

Jimmy Butler has per-game averages of 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds this season.

Max Strus knocks down 2.5 threes per game.

The Heat’s defensive effort gets a lift from Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game.

Celtics vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 4.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (214.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Celtics 113 – Heat 111

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