Heat vs. Celtics Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets For Eastern Conference Finals Game 4 – Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics (57-25) have a chance to grab an upset victory when they take the court as only 1.5-point underdogs against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat (44-38) on Tuesday. The game’s over/under is 216.5.

Heat vs. Celtics Odds

• Heat odds to win: -120
• Celtics odds to win: +100
• Spread: Heat (-1.5)
• Total: 216.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Tuesday, May 23, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
• TV: TNT

Who Will Win Heat vs. Celtics?

Heat and Celtics Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season they were favored by 1.5 points or more, the Heat have a 17-35-4 record against the spread.

In games this season in which they were an underdog by 1.5 points or more, the Celtics have a 7-1 record against the spread.

These teams average 227.4 points per game combined, 10.9 more than the total of 216.5.

Miami and Boston have seen its opponents average a combined 4.7 more points per game than the point total of 216.5 set for this outing.

The Heat’s average total in outings this season has been 219.3, 2.8 points higher than the over/under in this particular game.

The average point total for Boston this year is 12.9 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Miami’s ATS record is 30-48-4 this season.

The Celtics are 44-35-3 ATS this season.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a -26 scoring differential, putting up 109.5 points per game (30th in the league) and giving up 109.8 (second in the NBA).

The Heat come up short in the rebound battle by an average of 1.3 boards. They are collecting 40.6 rebounds per game (27th in the league) compared to their opponents’ 41.9 per outing.

Miami makes 12.0 three-pointers per game (16th in the league) while shooting 34.4% from deep (27th in the NBA). It is making 1.1 fewer threes per contest than its opponents, who drain 13.1 per game while shooting 36.7%.

The Heat score 110.4 points per 100 possessions (25th in the league), while allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions (ninth in the NBA).

The Heat have scored at a higher rate at home than on the road in the 2022-23 season (111.4 at home versus 107.5 on the road), but have also surrendered more points in home games than in road games (110.2 opponent points per home game versus 109.3 on the road).

Celtics Stats & Insights

The Celtics have a +535 scoring differential, topping opponents by 6.5 points per game. They’re putting up 117.9 points per game, fourth in the league, and are allowing 111.4 per contest to rank fourth in the NBA.

Boston is seventh in the league at 45.3 rebounds per game. That’s 1.3 more than the 44.0 its opponents average.

The Celtics knock down 16.0 three-pointers per game (second-most in the league) at a 37.6% rate (sixth-best in NBA), compared to the 11.6 per game their opponents make, at a 34.5% rate.

The Celtics put up 115.7 points per 100 possessions (third in league), while conceding 108.8 points per 100 possessions (third in NBA).

In 2022-23 Boston is scoring 5.1 more points per game at home (120.5) than away (115.4).

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo averages 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game.

Jimmy Butler’s averages this season are 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game.

The Heat get 2.5 three-pointers per game out of Max Strus.

Butler averages 1.8 steals per game, while Adebayo has 0.8 blocks per contest.

Celtics Key Players to Watch

Tatum has been among the team’s best in both scoring (30.1 points per game) and rebounding (8.8 rebounds per game) while adding 4.6 assists per contest.

Marcus Smart’s per-game averages this season are 11.5 points, 6.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds.

Tatum averages 3.2 made threes per game.

The Celtics’ defensive effort gets a boost from Smart (1.5 steals per game) and Derrick White (0.9 blocks per game).

Heat vs. Celtics Prediction

• Pick ATS: Celtics (+ 1.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (216.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Celtics 113 – Heat 111

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