Celtics vs. Heat Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets For Eastern Conference Finals Game 5 – Thursday, May 25, 2023

Boston is an 8.5-point favorite against Miami when the Jayson Tatum-led Celtics (57-25) and Bam Adebayo’s Heat (44-38) square off on May 25, 2023. The game features a point total of 215.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

• Celtics odds to win: -321
• Heat odds to win: +257
• Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
• Total: 215

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Game Time and Information

• When: Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET
• Where: TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts
• TV: TNT

Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

Celtics and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season they were favored by 8.5 points or more, the Celtics have a 14-14-1 record against the spread.

In games they have played as at least 8.5-point underdogs this year, the Heat are 1-1 against the spread.

Between them, these two teams average 12.4 more points per game (227.4) than this matchup’s over/under (215).

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 6.2 more points per game (221.2) than this matchup’s over/under of 215 points.

The average total the Celtics have had in their matchups this season is 14.4 more points than this particular game’s point total.

The average over/under for Miami’s games this season is 4.3 more points than the point total of 215 for this outing.

So far this season, Boston has compiled a 44-35-3 record against the spread.

The Heat have a 30-48-4 record against the spread this season.

Celtics Stats & Insights

The Celtics outscore opponents by 6.5 points per game (scoring 117.9 points per game to rank fourth in the league while giving up 111.4 per contest to rank fourth in the NBA) and have a +535 scoring differential overall.

The Celtics rank seventh in the league at 45.3 rebounds per game. That’s 1.3 more than the 44 their opponents average.

Boston connects on 16 three-pointers per game (second-most in the league) at a 37.6% rate (sixth-best in the NBA), compared to the 11.6 per game its opponents make at a 34.5% rate.

The Celtics record 115.7 points per 100 possessions (third in the league), while allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions (third in the NBA).

In 2022-23, the Celtics’ offense has been significantly better at home, where they average 120.5 points per game, compared to road games, where they record 115.4 per game. On defense, they have been better at home, where they allow 110.5 points per game, versus on the road, where they allow opponents to score 112.4 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat score 109.5 points per game (30th in NBA) and concede 109.8 (second in league) for a -26 scoring differential overall.

The 40.6 rebounds per game Miami accumulates rank 27th in the league, 1.3 fewer than the 41.9 its opponents collect.

The Heat hit 12 three-pointers per game (16th in the league) while shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc (27th in NBA). They are making 1.1 fewer threes than their opponents, who drain 13.1 per game at 36.7%.

The Heat rank 25th in the league averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

At home Miami is scoring 111.4 points per game, 3.9 more than it is averaging on the road (107.5).

Celtics Key Players to Watch

The Celtics get 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists from Tatum.

Marcus Smart’s averages this season are 11.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game.

The Celtics get 3.2 three-pointers per game out of Tatum.

Smart averages 1.5 steals per game, while Derrick White has 0.9 blocks per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo is at the top of the Heat scoring and rebounding leaderboards with 20.4 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game to go with 3.2 assists per contest this season.

The Heat have gotten 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds out of Jimmy Butler this season.

Max Strus cashes in on 2.5 treys per game.

Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game are vital to the Heat’s defensive performance.

Celtics vs. Heat Prediction

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 8.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (215)
  

• Prediction:
  Celtics 116 – Heat 108

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