NEWSLETTER
Place your bets. Nascar is in the sports gambling mecca Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 and the first of two races in Sin City this year. The green flag is scheduled to drop at 3:30 PM est for 267 laps at this high-speed 1.5-mile long track. Practice and qualifying are complete, and when you’re in Vegas you go big or go home. Here are my Pennzoil 400 Picks and Best Bets.
Before diving into the card, there was some pretty major news in Nascar this week. This is the announcement that Chase Elliott will miss an unspecified amount of time after sustaining a broken leg while snowboarding. Josh Berry will step into the no.9 this week and he’s a total fade for me considering it’s his first-ever action in the NextGen car. Here’s to a quick and full recovery for Chase.
Pennzoil 400 Picks and Best Bets
We entered the week with the Kyles (Busch and Larson) as the heavy favorites and this hasn’t changed much. However, after qualifying on the pole in dominant fashion, Joey Logano has joined them at the top of the board with odds ranging from +550 to +600. See the Pennzoil 400 starting grid here. Overall, there are now six drivers with odds of +1000 or shorter after qualifying with Ryan Blaney and William Byron joining the group.
See the Opening Odds for Las Vegas
Outrights
Something to keep in mind when shopping outrights is that only ONE of the last twelve winners here have started worse than 13th. Knowing that, and my tendencies to follow trends, here are my favorite outright bets.
Ross Chastain +1000 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 10u
The watermelon man didn’t show front-row speed in practice or qualifying but he almost never does. This is a driver who led 151 total laps here last year and finished top 3 in both races. Chastain did all that while starting both races outside the top 10 and won’t be at that disadvantage this year, qualifying 8th.
Ross the boss showed what he’s capable of last year and he seems to have leveled up even more for 2023. He is coming off his best career performance at Auto Club, leading 91 laps and finishing 3rd, and just put together his best qualifying effort in Vegas.
This number is too long for a track that rewards speed which Chastain has plenty of. And, if you like trends, a win is the next progression after finishing 3rd then 2nd last year.
Other Outrights
Kyle Larson +800 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 8u
Ryan Blaney +900 (BetMGM) Bet 1u to win 9u
Alex Bowman +2500 (DraftKings) Bet .25u to win 6.75u *I Bet this at +2200 early; See why HERE
Bubba Wallace +3300 (BetMGM) Bet .25u to win 8.25u
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Pennzoil 400 Placement bets
The time to bet placements was before practice and qualifying but there are still some interesting potential values.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 10 +550 (FanDuel) Bet .3u to win 1.65u
Say what you will about Stenhouse, but he’s been pretty dang good so far in 2023. As a matter of fact, after finishing 12th last week in Fontana, Ricky sits 7th in the standings. Yeah, two races aren’t enough to claim he’s turned the corner but winning at Daytona has lessened the pressure on him to be uber-aggressive which may actually result in better race management and finishing positions.
Ricky led laps during both races here and was in position for a top 10 during the Spring before a late pit road speeding penalty ruined that. Stenhouse is always an intriguing driver at the window, and that’s no different this week. In my opinion, he is grossly mispriced considering Josh Berry, Ryan Preece, and Noah Gragson all have shorter odds while starting well behind him. It’s a little wild but when in Vegas, you have to roll the dice.
Austin Cindric Top 10 +470 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 4.7u
I grabbed this number as soon as lines dropped earlier in the week and my instincts were rewarded. (See my breakdown HERE) He put together another extremely impressive practice and qualifying in Vegas and has since fallen below +110 wherever offered.
Bubba Wallace Top 10 +160 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 1.6u
What?! Wallace was awesome here last fall and won at its sister track Kansas. Bubba also showed the best among the Toyota’s during practice posting the top overall lap, the best 5-lap average and is starting just outside the top 10. I hit this earlier in the week at +230 but +160 is still a decent spot to jump aboard.
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Sin City Matchups and props
Kyle Larson +102 over Kyle Busch (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 1.02u
This is literally a toss-up matchup and I’m kind of surprised to be getting plus money on either side. Despite finishing multiple laps down last week in California, Larson was quite possibly the best car on the track. Even better than eventual race winner Kyle Busch.
Larson has picked up right where he left off here in Las Vegas. He ran the fastest lap and had the 2nd best 5 and 10-lap averages during practice. And wound up qualifying 6th, and starting beside Kyle Busch. Larson’s speed is unquestioned and his abilities on 1.5s are 2nd to none. Anytime I can grab plus money on a matchup I think is even, book it!
Bubba Wallace Top Toyota +800 (BetMGM) Bet .25u to win 2u
Pennzoil 400 Best Bet
Alex Bowman Top 10 +115 (FanDuel) Bet 3u to win 3.35u
How this number got longer after qualifying makes zero sense to me. Bowman had the 11th fastest lap and the 11th best 5-lap average during practice. And he ended up qualifying for the race 11th.
If recent history tells a story, it’s definitely that Alex is probably finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday. He won his only trip to Vegas and placed inside the top 10 at both Kansas races last season, and has top 10s in both races so far in 2023.
Hendrick has clearly brought some speed to Vegas and no offense to Josh Berry, they’ll likely allocate more resources to Byron/Bowman in Elliott’s absence. When the dice are hot, you keep rolling until you crap out and that’s what I’m doing here. He’s as hot as anyone right now so there’s no reason to think it won’t continue.
We hit our best bet last weekend with Austin Dillon cashing a top 10 so let’s stay hot in Vegas. Good luck with your Pennzoil 400 picks and best bets. Let’s cash some tickets!
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Featured Image credit: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
