Nascar Picks and Predictions: Food City Dirt Race Best Bets

Let’s get dirty baby! Nascar is finally ready to hit Bristol Dirt under the lights. Practice was rained out, a pretty significant development in my opinion, and qualifying was done heat style on Saturday. Most of the suspected contenders are starting near the front. With a couple of surprises popping up during the qualifying sessions. Let’s take a look at my Food City Dirt Race Best Bets below

See the Opening Odds for Bristol Dirt Here

As I mentioned above, drivers weren’t able to practice on Friday. They had to run the qualifying heat races blind and based on data from last year’s race in the NextGen. Amazingly, JJ Yeley, yes the JJ Yeley whose best race start since 2020 is 22nd at Fontana this season technically qualified 3rd for today’s race.

Don’t be fooled by today’s starting grid though. It was set using some weird metric of positions gained and finishing position during each qualifying heat. This did not account for field strength either. That said, four of the favorites are starting inside the top 6 and are legit contenders for the race. 

Food City Dirt Race Picks 

Christopher Bell +650 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 6.5u

Bell opened the week with these same odds and hasn’t budged pre or post-qualifying. He’ll be starting the race 4th after finishing 3rd during his heat race. Of note, Bell’s group included Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Alex Bowman. All who have dirt track histories or have performed well here in the first two races.

Christopher maneuvered his way from 8th during his heat and while testing his car still showed tons of speed. He’s become a weekly contender who can definitely win this race if things go his way. The odds are short but should be closer to those of race favorites Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick.

Joey Logano +1400 (Caesars) Bet 1u to win 14u

What are we doing here?! Logano opened the week around +1200 at most books and looked smooth and controlled during his heat. Joey has shown during the previous two Food City Dirt Races that he’s a more than capable dirt driver. We’re talking about the guy who won the first Cup Series event here, finished 3rd last year, and won the dang truck race. Why are people sleeping on him? 

Check out my pre-qualifying bets HERE

Kyle Busch +110 over Chase Briscoe (Caesars) Bet 2u to win 2.2u

Again, what are we doing here?! I understand Chase Briscoe is a skilled dirt racer but that has to be applied on Sunday. This simply hasn’t happened for Chase the first two times here as he’s finished 20th and 22nd. All the while old dog learning new tricks Kyle Busch finished 17th and WON this race last year.

This could be a plus money trap but KFB has the better starting position which should at least in theory limit early hazards. Briscoe begins the race 14th and with his aggressive and sometimes carefree style, opens up the possibility for danger. I’ve faded Busch more than most since his first win of the season but like his odds to compete this week. Oh yeah, Kyle also has shorter odds to win across the board.  

Food City Dirt Race Best Bet

Joey Logano Top 10 -115 (Caesars) Bet 2u to win 1.74u

I know I know, I’m normally fade Logano at all costs but these numbers are crazy! As I wrote when highlighting his outright price, this guy has been fire here. He’s finished top 3 in both previous races here. And has top 10s in four of the seven races so far in 2023.

Joey is one of the sport’s best drivers over the long run no matter the track. And as long as he avoids danger, should stay near the front most of the race. With the 6th shortest odds to win the race, this number should and would normally be much shorter. I’m going all-in on one of my most despised drivers to bet because the odds are too good to pass up.

*Note: Outside of cashing big time on Logano to win the Championship Race last year, almost every time I back him, he’s terrible. So you might want to fade Logano haha.

Always remember that in addition to always trying to win, betting should be fun and done within your means. Good luck with all your wagers for this week’s race and Let’s cash some tickets!

Featured Image credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images