NEWSLETTER
It’s Dega week baby and against all conventional wisdom I’ve already started peppering the board. Nascar’s party track has always been and will forever be one of the hardest to handicap. There are however a handful of drivers who standout and thrive at super speedways. With that in mind, let’s take a took at some of my early Geico 500 picks and predictions for Talladega.
Geico 500 Picks – Pre-Practice/Qualifying Bets
Talladega, Daytona, and to a lesser extent, the new Atlanta, are all tracks where picking a winner feels like winning the lottery. I mean, just look at the odds for this race. Not a single driver is shorter than 10-1. And there are 11 to 12 guys between that and 20-1 everywhere you look.
Among these “favorites”, if you can even call them that here, seven of them have won a superspeedway race over the last 3+ seasons. And there have been a total of 11 different winners at the 13 super’s over this span.
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More evidence of how difficult these races with Dega in particular are to bet can be found in average finish and top 10 data. For instance, over the last 10 races here, the best average finish is 12.4 by Denny Hamlin. He is also tied with Erik Jones & Chase Elliott for the most top 10 finishes over this stretch with 6.
In total, there are just four drivers with an average finish better than 15th. In addition, there are only five drivers with five or more T10s during this time in Alabama.
Needless to say, it’s probably a good idea to build a light card or even take a bye week for these races. I’m here to bring you some leans though, so here are some of my favorite Geico 500 picks.
Ross Chastain +1600 (BetMGM) Bet .5u to win 8u
The watermelon man was great here last season winning the Spring race with a last-lap pass. Then leading 36 laps en route to a 4th place run in October. He carried this SS racing over to this year where he led a few laps and notched only his 2nd ever top 10 at Daytona.
See my first Outright bet for Dega HERE
Chris Buescher +2200 (Caesars) Bet .4u to win 8.8u
I grabbed Buescher at +2800 as soon as the odds dropped but still think anything over 20-1 offers decent value. He and RFK teammate Brad Keselowski led a combined 74 of the 212 laps and were the best cars at the Daytona 500.
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Michael McDowell Top 10 +200 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 2u
I’ll admit it, the top 10 market this week is absolutely garbage. That’s to be expected, though, with basically anyone in play to do so. There are just 3 drivers here at FanDuel and Caesars with T10 odds longer than +400. Much to my surprise, however, McDowell is one of the few guys (11 at FanDuel & 8 at Caesars) sitting at +200 or longer.
Michael has been as consistent as anyone at super speedways, especially Talladega over the last few years. He has two 3rd place finishes with three top 10s over the last four here. Since 2019, he had an average finish of 9th in six out of eight races he didn’t wreck. And his lone career win is at Daytona.
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I absolutely love Talladega and super speedway racing because of the sweat it causes at the sportsbook. If you like any of these Geico 500 picks make sure to bet responsibly and try to keep those cards fairly tight. Good luck on all those wagers and I’ll catch you at the end of the week with all my Geico 500 bets.
