2023 Nascar Picks: Geico 500 Best Bets

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Raceday at Talladega is finally here and if the Cup Series race is anything like the Xfinity one, buckle up! I shopped all the post qualifying numbers looking for value and found a couple of bets I’m intrigued by. Check out the final additions to the betting card and my Geico 500 Best Bet.

As we mentioned early in the week, qualifying doesn’t mean much here and that it wouldn’t affect the odds too much. There has been very minimal movement outside of some super pre-qualifying longshots getting shorter. And the already ridiculously terrible top 10 market getting worse. You can check out the opening outright odds HERE.

In regards to the results of qualifying, a familiar name sits on the pole. It’s none other than super speedway master Denny Hamlin. Working against him is the fact that 7 of the last 8 winners here started 9th or worse. With the pole sitter’s best finish during those races being 7th (Hamlin in Fall of 2021). The only race winner to have started better was Denny who won from the pole in the Fall of 2020. This marks the 4th time over the last six races that Hamlin is leading the field to green.  

Geico 500 Starting Grid HERE.

Geico 500 Picks

Superspeedways are always races where going light at the sportsbook or sitting it out completely make sense. The wide range of outcomes and craziness make betting them fun but terrifying at the same time. That said, I’m here to make some picks. Check out my early plays and Geico 500 Best Bet below.

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Bubba Wallace Top Toyota +450 (BetMGM) Bet 1u to win 4.5u

Bubba is without a doubt one of Nascar’s best superspeedway drivers and is almost always competing at the end. Wallace’s first career Cup victory came here in 2021 and he’s always at the front at some point of the race. He’s one of twelve drivers with outright odds of 20-1 or shorter and among the Toyotas, the 3rd shortest.

Bubba has the 2nd best average finish over the last 10 here among all the active Toyota drivers as well. He topped Bell and Reddick twice, and split with Truex jr. here last year. Wallace is essentially racing Hamlin among the manufacturer and +450 for a driver matchup is an incredible number!

Check out my pre-qualifying bets HERE  

Geico 500 Best Bet

Austin Dillon +105 (Caesars) Over Chase Briscoe – Bet 1u to win 1.05u

There aren’t many drivers more consistent at Talladega than Austin Dillon. He’s finished 13th or better in five straight and six of the last seven here. And amazingly, he’s finished on the lead lap in eight of the last nine.

Briscoe has run just four races in Dega at the Cup Series level. And although he’s put up respectable races, has finished behind Dillon in three of the four. Briscoe has also struggled to top AD at Daytona finishing behind the no.3 in five of his six Cup Series races there.

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It’s time to “Shake ‘N’ Bake” at Dega baby! Hopefully you’ve carefully shopped the marked and kept the card tighter than mine this week. Good luck on all your Geico 500 wagers. Let’s cash some tickets!

Featured Image credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

written by

Brian is just a regular guy whose first passion was sports. He's either been playing, watching, now working in, and recreationally betting on sports for over 30 years. His favorite sports to bet are Football (NFL/NCAAF), College Basketball, and the NASCAR Cup Series. In addition to being a content contributor here at Bleacher Nation, Brian co-hosts the Angle of Pursuit Nascar Betting Podcast , & is also the FantasyLifeApp breaking news moderator/manager.

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