NEWSLETTER
The absolute chaos of Talladega is behind us and a much more predictable race is here. We’re headed to the Monster Mile of Dover Motor Speedway. No race is predictable in Nascar but the range of outcomes here in Delaware is much more narrowed. I found a few early lines to attack so let’s check out some early Wurth 400 Picks and Predictions.
As I hit on in the opening, the list of potential winners and skilled drivers here is very small. For instance, each of the last 17 winners has come from either the Hendrick or Gibbs garage. With Kevin Harvick being the only outlier among the last 17 victors.
Even looking past the wins, it’s clear who performs well here and who doesn’t. There are three drivers with average finishes of 6th or better over the last 10 races (Larson, Harvick, Truex Jr.). Just five guys with 5 or more top 5 finishes over this stretch (Truex Jr., Elliott, Larson, Harvick, Bowman). And nine different dudes to have top 10 finishes in over half their races over this span.
[bet-promo id=”251181″ ]
What do all but one of the drivers on this list (Joey Logano) have in common? They’re either named Kevin Harvick or drive/drove for HMS or JGR. This isn’t saying others cant win or perform well here. They’re just at a significant disadvantage while on the same track as those teams.
One last interesting historical tidbit to keep in mind this weekend is starting position. Each of those 17 winners started their races 17th or better with 11 of them doing so from 10th or better. We may see practice and qualifying rained out again this week and due to Dega, we may some race favorites starting outside these coveted spots. So knowing where certain drivers are in the standings and how they ran last week is an important part of shopping lines right now.
Wurth 400 Picks – Pre-Practice/Qualifying Bets
We’re trying to beat the market adjustment if P&Q is canceled due to the forecasted rain, I found two bets I’m hammering right now.
Kevin Harvick +1100 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 11u
Harvick is a machine here in Dover. He’s finished top 10 in eight consecutive trips to the Monster Mile. Two of those being wins in the Spring of 2018 and in one of the 2020 events. Yes, he didn’t show winning speed here last year, but Kevin has looked great in 2023.
He’s led laps at Fontana, Phoenix, and Martinsville, where he looked to be one of the strongest cars in the field. Most important for this bet is that if the rain ruins qualifying, this number is dropping. He’s qualified inside the top 10 in 7 of the last 10 here and 3rd in driver points for 2023. He’ll be starting in one of the money spots regardless of the status of qualifying at Dover.
See my favorite Top 10 bet for the Monster Mile HERE
Kyle Larson Top 5 -120 (BetMGM) Bet 2u to win 1.66u
I’m going out of my comfort zone for this one but since debuting in the Cup Series, there isn’t anyone better at Dover. Larson has the top-average finish of 5.1 here. He’s finished 6th or better in 6 of his 8 races, five being top 5’s. Kyle won the Fall 2019 race after leading 154 laps. And he’s a regular up front to start qualifying 5th or better in 7 of those 8.
Larson has been one of, if not the best car this season and ranks 4th in driver points. Unfortunately for him, because of his wreck at Talladega, he’d be starting outside the top 17 if qualifying is canceled, Amazingly, this number will probably still drop because of his ridiculous history here and the knowledge of just how good he is. He’s already -165 at DK so take advantage of the value now before it’s too late.
[bet-promo id=”286818″ ]
Make sure to shop the early market this week for potential values based on qualifying. And remember to check back later in the week for my entire Wurth 400 card.
Featured Image Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
