NEWSLETTER
We’re headed to Dover Motor Speedway where Nascar’s top drivers look to conquer the Monster Mile. Making the race even scarier than normal, especially at the sportsbook is the lack of qualifying and some interesting weather that may postpone the race until Monday. I’m not scared though, and have done my shopping before we go green. Here are my latest Dover picks and Wurth 400 Best Bet.
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Monster Mile Picks & Best Bet
Welp, just as we expected, the rain came and ruined qualifying for the Cup Series. The starting grid has been set and Kyle Busch will lead the field to the start whenever the race goes green. Race favorite Kyle Larson starts 18th which would be the worst starting position of a race winner since 2013. Make sure to check out the entire starting grid HERE.
Josh Berry Top 10 +175 (FanDuel) Bet 1u to win 1.75u
He’s back. Josh Berry is back in the Cup Series for HMS but in the no.48 vacated by the injured Alex Bowman this time. It sucks for Bowman who has performed really well here in the past but Hendrick couldn’t have a better replacement for Dover. Berry looked pretty darn impressive during his five races in the no.9 car. And he’s finished 1st or 2nd in all three of his Xfinity races at the Monster Mile.
HMS as a team is a juggernaut here winning 9 of the last 17 races. When not winning, they’re still very competitive as they’ve placed at least 3 of their drivers inside the top 10 in three straight at Dover.
By running the Xfinity race Josh has a leg up on the Cup drivers and he’s stepping into a car that’s won here in the past. He’s really good on this track and should be highly competitive for HMS once again. I couldn’t resist adding him to my list of Wurth 400 picks.
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Chase Elliott Top 5 +110 (Caesars) Bet 1u to win 1.1u
Elliott is one of the favorites this weekend and for good reason. He won here last season after leading 73 laps. He’s actually led 27 or more laps four times and won twice at Dover over the last 10 visits here.
Chase does have two DNFs over those 10 races but in the other 8, his average finish is 4.25. It’s so ridiculously low because he’s finished 5th or better in 7 of those 8 events. With a low finish of 12th way back in 2018. Elliott has been money here in the past and starting 10th puts him in prime position to work his way towards the front early.
Check out my pre-qualifying bets HERE
Wurth 400 Best Bet
Daniel Suarez +150 Over Brad Keselowski (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 1.5u
Allthough I think Keselowski will be strong this week, I’m all in on Suarez for the Wurth 400. Daniel has been damn good at Dover when driving top tier equipment. For what it’s worth, Brad has also been really good here. But he’s always been in elite cars, and considered a much better driver than Suarez during their careers.
That hasn’t played out here at the Monster Mile however as Suarez has dominated this matchup. In his 4 Dover races with JGR, Daniel topped Brad in each one. In his 2 races with SHR, Daniel and Brad split but finished within 1 and 3 spots of each other. And with Trackhouse, the no.99 has beaten Keselowski in both races by 7 and 6 spots.
Brad K. has looked much better this season than last for RFK but in level equipment it’s always been Daniel with the advantage. I like both of these guys to threaten the top 10 but simply don’t understand the vast difference in odds. The data says this matchup should be +150 for a side, but for Keselowski not the 99. This was an easy choice for my Wurth 400 Best Bet. Viva Daniel Suarez!
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Featured Image Credit: Logan Riely/Getty Images
