NEWSLETTER
Finally! Kansas has thus far delivered a weather-free weekend and it’s presented some intriguing and interesting post-qualifying numbers. As expected, the Toyota drivers looked awesome as a whole, but it’s the Hendrick boys of William Byron, and Kyle Larson starting on the front row. The odds board is really something to behold right now so let’s dive in with my AdventHealth 400 Picks and Best Bet.
See the Opening Odds for Kansas HERE
AdventHealth 400 Picks & Best Bet
As I mentioned in the opening, we haven’t had any weather issues here at Kansas Speedway. And we actually got to see full, uninterrupted practice and qualifying sessions. In a bit of a surprise, Ross Chastain threw down incredible laps during qualifying. Posting the fastest single lap during the first round, then finishing just .012 seconds behind William Byron for the pole.
Toyota makes up 4 of the top 8 starters with last week’s winner Martin Truex Jr. topping them all firing off 4th. Another surprising and very disappointing effort on Saturday was that of Chase Elliott. He posted the 22nd fastest single lap in practice and will begin Sunday’s race just one spot better at 21st.
The sportsbooks reposted some interesting and very enticing lines coming out of qualifying and I’m ready to fire away. Let’s see all the additions to my card.
Kyle Larson To Win +650 (DraftKings) Bet 1.5u to win 9.75u
What are we doing here?! Larson opened the week as the prohibitive favorite around 5-1 everywhere including at DK. He was the 7th fastest in practice; had the 2nd fastest to open qualifying, then ran just .06 seconds behind William Byron for the pole.
Kyle has been incredible here at Kansas throughout his career and he’s arguably the best driver we have in the sport right now. He was already on my card as seen with my pre-qualifying bets HERE, but I can’t ignore this value.
*A couple of other Outrights I’m interested in at their current price are Chase Elliott +2800 at DraftKings and Christopher Bell +750 from Caesars.
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Bubba Wallace Top 10 -125 (Caesars) Bet 1.25u to win 1u
Yet another overreaction to qualifying. Bubba opened the week at this number but was quickly steamed down to 14 and even 12-1 in some places. He showed his potential here last year with a 10th-place finish in the Spring. Followed by 23XI’s 2nd win here in the Fall.
Wallace looked the part in practice dropping the 5th best lap. And although he’s starting 17th, was trending toward a top 10 grid spot before the wind got him. Yes, Wind, and it cost Bubba a couple of tenths on his qualifying lap. Funny enough, his mistake was used as a reference point for each driver after him which helped them post amazing times.
AdventHealth 400 Best Bet
Ryan Blaney Top 10 +105 (Caesars) Bet 3u to win 3.15u
It’s time for the ultimate kiss of death from yours truly. I already gave this out earlier in the week HERE and can’t help but hit it again. He’s finished with a top 10 in just three of his ten Kansas races with Penske. But he did so last Fall after finishing just outside the 10th spot in 12th during the Spring.
Blaney is on absolute fire coming into this weekend posting 7th or better finishes in three straight. And despite the Penske garage bringing drag-race setups to Vegas, he still wound up 13th at what is probably the closest comparable track to Kansas Speedway.
Additionally, Ryan is normally well short of even money to Top 10 so this number is not something seen often. This is most likely due to the heavy bias towards Toyota and the top qualifying Hendrick cars. I’m more than happy to reap the rewards… as long as I haven’t completely jinxed him.
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Good luck this week with all your AdventHealth 400 bets. Let’s cash some tickets!
Featured Image credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
