Mother nature has once again thrown a wrench into a Nascar weekend. Practice and qualifying were cancelled resulting with the starting grid for Charlotte Motor Speedway being set by Nascar’s metric. We’re pulling from past races and recent results but regardless, the real contenders are pretty apparent. Check out some of the drivers I like this week and my Coca-Cola 600 Best Bet below.
Coca-Cola 600 Picks & Best Bet
No practice or qualifying means we have a predetermined starting order so relying on historical data for starting positions can be discounted some. That said, William Byron sits in on the coveted pole position looking to make it six of the last ten winners to have started 1st. Hendrick teammate and race favorite Kyle Larson will fire off from the 12th spot. While Alex Bowman starts 31st in his return to racing.
Races with no practice or qualifying data are slightly more difficult to predict but at this stage of the season, we have a good idea who to back. It’s this reason that makes shopping odds in this situation exciting because the books don’t always adjust accordingly. This week in particular has presented some awesome values in my opinion. And I’m loading up on one manufacture with an extraordinary past here that is also trending up.
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Christopher Bell Top 10 -130 (Caesars) Bet 2u to win 1.54u
What?! CBell is currently the king of top 10s in Nascar as the only driver with eight such finishes. Of the five races that he didn’t crack the 10th, three are because of wrecks and the other two were 16th and 14th place runs. Christopher has run really well at Charlotte posting two top 10s during his three 600’s. And he’s been the 5th fastest car at similar type tracks since the beginning of last season.
JGR has a tremendous history in Charlotte and has run extremely well at similar tracks the last few seasons. The no.20 car is quite possibly the least talked about JGR/Toyota this week, but has all the makings for a potential winner. This gives us some exposure while keeping the risk relatively low.
Ty Gibbs Top 10 +250 (Caesars) Bet .5u to win 1.25u
Although he has just four top 10’s, I was convinced to follow my heart by @RoryPicks this week. Gibbs has exceeded mine and many others’ expectations during his rookie season. He’s only getting better and stronger as the year moves on, And has been routinely running near or inside the top 10 most races.
Albeit, clearly a different race, Gibbs was awesome at Charlotte in the Xfinity Series winning and placing 2nd during his two races. This is also another spot to back the most successful team in Charlotte and get good value at that.
Ty is racing better than he was heading to Vegas. He looked great in Kansas before being involved in a couple of incidents. And he has all the tools needed to finish inside top 10.
Kyle Larson Top 5 -135 (BetMGM) Bet 2u to win 1.48u
I’m not a big fan of betting favorites, (they always seem to fail me, haha), but I don’t think Kyle Larson has an equal in the sport right now. He put on a clinic during the All-Star Race. Has looked like the fastest car in almost every race this season. And is starting to resemble his 2021 Championship self in which he won this race in run-away fashion.
Kyle has the 3rd best speed ranking at all high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since last season and was arguablly the strongest car at both Las Vegas and Kansas this season. It’s been a bumpy road in 2023 but when Larson stays clean, he’s going to compete for a win. Backing +350 to +425 with no pracitce or qualifying is dicey however. So in an attempt to get some Larson on my card, this makes the most sense to me.
Bubba Wallace Top 5 +250 (DraftKings) Bet 1u to win 2.5u
High-speed 1.5 mile long tracks equal auto bets on Bubba Wallace for me. He’s been one of the ten best cars at the last four Vegas and Kansas events. Was running inside or near the top 10 at Charlotte last season before getting caught in the first “Big One”. And was the ONLY car who had anything for Kyle Larson last week at North Wilkesboro. On a track type that has been Bubba’s worst historically too.
For only the second time in his career is riding two consecutive top 5 finishes. In the eight races excluding superspeedways and where he didn’t crash has an average finish of 10.25. Wallace is rounding into form and matching his driving skills with the talent level that’s always been there. He’s a decent bet to top 10 at -130 elsewhere but considering 14 of his 26 (54%) career such finishes were actually 5th or better, this offers much more value.
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Coca-Cola 600 Best Bet
With no practice or qualifying, I was eagerly awaiting the adjusted odds and good lord was I excited to see this number. It is by far the easiest bet for me to place this week. I bet him on an outright to begin the week and have hit his inflated number again as well. My Coca-Cola 600 best bet shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Tyler Reddick Top 10 -110 (Caesars) Bet 4u to win 3.64u
These odds are absurd! Reddick has been great at his previous three Coca-Cola 600 races posting top 10’s in all of them. He’s finished every stage over the last two inside the top 10. And been one of the fastest cars on track in all of them.
He comes into this race having finished 3rd in the All-Star Race, and with top 10 runs in two of the last three regular season races. More importantly, he’s one of the ten fastest drivers at all high speed 1.5’s since last season.
Reddick has really started to hit on all cylinders and he’s at a track that rewards wall riders. This is where he really shines as one of the best in the sport. Oh yeah, he’s also rocking the best non-patriotic paint scheme of the weekend with the Jumpman on the hood for just the third time. And this time in Tar Heel blue. How could he not perform well?!
