NEWSLETTER
Hallelujah! We actually got to see practice and qualifying for a race again. We learned that Denny Hamlin has a rocket ship on the long run this weekend. And HMS is still trying to figure out Gateway. The odds have been reposted and no matter the amount of uncertainty this week, I found some decent plays. Here are my Enjoy Illinois 300 Picks and Best Bet.
Enjoy Illinois 300 Picks & Best Bet
I’m happy we got to see practice this week but it may have just made betting the race more difficult. Denny Hamlin unloaded with the best car in the field and after qualifying 3rd, reopened as the clear favorite. Unfortunately for him, that may not mean much at the end of the day here.
Opening Enjoy Illinois 300 Odds
Joey Logano unloaded with the best equipment last year then re-opened as a big favorite. He needed the perfect strategy plays in order to win the race though. It wasn’t his speed, lack of tire fall-off, or his driving that won it. It was being on the right pit sequence and having his strategic choices pay off that did it.
Knowing that, and after watching trucks, I’m expecting a wacky race with the potential for some interesting finishing positions. Tires shouldn’t play a major role during the race so it’s really gonna be who gets lucky with their choices. Fitting, considering I’m in Vegas, but it’s made this week tough from a betting perspective. All that said, here are my leans for the Enjoy Illinois 300.
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Ross Chastain +800 (Caesars) Bet 1u to win 8u
Look, Chastain has struggled the last two weeks and surprisingly didn’t even show up in Charlotte. I simply don’t care. He’s the points leader and has some leeway for calculated risks with a win not necessarily needed for a playoff spot. That makes him the perfect candidate to take the Enjoy Illinois 300 for me.
We’re running the same package from 2022 where he finished 8th even after all the drama during the race. Today he posted the 4th-best 10-lap and 2nd-best 15-lap averages. All while practicing on a much warmer track with less grip in group b.
Lastly, his aggressive racing style fits well on tracks where passing is difficult. And where some risky decisions are needed for a win. Ross is the poster child for aggressive driving and is never afraid to take chances. It is June and watermelon season after all isn’t it?
Carson Hocevar Top 10 +1600 (Caesars) Bet .25u to win 4u
This is more of a, let’s make the race fun bet. But I also think it has a legit shot at hitting.
Hocevar is in the no.7 Spire Motorsports while Corey Lajoie steps into the no.9 for Chase Elliott. It’s not great equipment, but again, I don’t see that being an issue. It wasn’t last year either where 31 cars finished on the lead lap.
Carson has also ran numerous races at Gateway in trucks and on Saturday he was really impressive. Despite having to start from the rear, he maneuvered his way inside the Top 5 late, coming home 4th.
As a fill-in, he isn’t racing for season-long points. And the team at Spire is reserved to the fact they’re not competing for an owners championship. Both work in his favor when it comes to taking risks on track for a good finish. Add the fact he’s cut from the same cloth as Ross Chastain in regards to his driving style. And we have ourselves a fun yet possible longshot that can finish strong.
I made one pre-practice and qualifying bet which you can see HERE
Enjoy Illinois 300 Best Bet
Tyler Reddick Top 10 -130 (Caesars) Bet 5u to win 3.85u
I’m not a fan of going with the same guy in back-to-back weeks but c’mon! These odds are ridiculous and this was the easiest addition to my Enjoy Illinois 300 Picks.
Reddick put his peers on notice last week in Charlotte being one of the only cars able to keep pace with Ryan Blaney. He’s also found something finishing three of the last four races inside the top 10. This doesn’t account for his 3rd place run during the All-Star Race either.
Tyler was good at Gateway last season. Running near the top 10 much of the day. A spin with about 60 laps left ruined his strong run but amazingly, he still brought it home in 16th.
On Saturday the 45 car looked fast again posting the 3rd best 10 and 15-lap averages in practice. Followed by a strong 9th-place qualifying effort.
Red Dog has a win under his belt already and we have multiple road courses still on tap. Knowing this, the team may let the race come to them and play it safe. Or they could go the opposite direction and go for broke expecting to accumulate plenty of points at the RCs.
Either way, I don’t mind a dart throw at 15-1. But outside of wrecking, think a Top 10 should be the expectation regardless of their strategy.
Featured Image credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
