I mentioned on Wednesday that Justin Jefferson wasn’t in attendance for Vikings OTAs. This should come as a surprise to no one. Jefferson is due for a significant raise after one of the best seasons by a wide receiver in NFL history. Jefferson logged 128 receptions, 1,809 yards, and eight touchdowns in 2022.
So, while Kevin O’Connell doesn’t seem miffed that his No. 1 wide receiver wasn’t at the voluntary workouts this week, he might be feeling a bit different come training camp if the Vikings and Jefferson don’t get a deal done in advance.
To be clear, Jefferson hasn’t said he wouldn’t report to mandatory activities. However, there’s no reason he should if he doesn’t have an extension before then. In addition, the Vikings have said that getting a deal done for Jefferson is a priority.
In a release last month when the team picked up his fifth-year option ahead of the NFL Draft, the Vikings called the move one that “buys more time” for the Vikings to workout a longer-term deal with the former LSU star.
“The team opted to exercise the fifth-year option on the 2020 first-round pick Tuesday, meaning he’ll be under contract at least through the 2024 season. The move buys more time for the Vikings to work out a longer-term deal with the three-time Pro Bowler and 2022 First-Team All-Pro.”
Regarding that topic, it’s tough to say what that deal might look like other than HUGE! Jefferson is the NFL’s best wide receiver and will command insane money for the position. He and his representation should try to reset the wide receiver market by surpassing the $30 million annual value of Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill’s contract.
On that topic, Mike Florio brought up an interesting point about the way that the Vikings structure contracts this week. Florio said that as a league source explained it to PFT, “the Vikings typically insist on a structure that entails injury guarantees that don’t become fully guaranteed until the year the money is earned. It gives the Vikings an annual out, as long as the player is healthy.”
According to Florio, Minnesota deviated from that structure for quarterback Kirk Cousins. But his source wasn’t sure if the Vikings would do the same for Jefferson.
“We’ll see.”
If the Vikings don’t budge on that front, they will see is a premature end to the Justin Jefferson era in Minnesota. The Vikings hit the lottery with Jefferson. Now it’s time to pay the taxes on their winnings. If not, they stand to watch the best player on that team since Randy Moss Griddy his way out of Minneapolis.
Another Vikings great, Cris Carter, said recently, “We’ve got something special in Minneapolis, and we’ve got to realize it,” of Jefferson and his talent.
As for what it might cost the Vikings to keep Jefferson in Minnesota, we can start by looking at what the top of the wide receiver market currently looks like. Tyreek Hill’s $30M AAV leads the position, with Davante Adams ($28M) and Cooper Krupp ($26.7M) behind him. In addition, Hill’s $72.2M guaranteed money is second to Kupp’s ($75M). So, we can safely take Hill’s contract as the baseline for any Jefferson deal in Minnesota.
Hill signed his four-year, $120 million contract with the Dolphins at 28 years old. Justin Jefferson is five years younger and his production towers above Hill’s. Jefferson has logged 324 catches, 4,825 yards, and 25 touchdowns over the last three seasons.
I imagine that a realistic expectation for this deal is going to be somewhere in the five-year, $160 million range. In addition, the Vikings are going to have to guarantee at least $80 million of that, if not more.
