NEWSLETTER
Another fine week of picks in Week 2 with a 2-2 record from Sunday’s action. In hindsight, probably shouldn’t have done a quick new pick when Aaron Jones got ruled out. Let’s get to some Week 3 NFL picks and props.
Seahawks (-6) vs Panthers (DraftKings)
I’m going back to the well with Seattle after they burned me in Week 1, but I loved what I saw from them in Week 2 at Detroit, and more importantly, I hated what I saw from Carolina on Monday night. Not only that, Bryce Young has been held out of practice this week with an ankle injury that could cause him to miss the game. If that happens, it’s Andy Dalton time, and as a Bears fan, I know all too well what that looks like. Give me the Seahawks at home against a really bad Panthers team.
Pick: Seahawks -6
Patriots -2.5 (-112), Jets Team Total Under 16.5 (-102, FanDuel)
It’s a low total, sure. But Bill Belichick has had Zach Wilson’s number seemingly unlike any other quarterback. In four career starts against New England, Wilson is 0-4 and has thrown just two TD passes while tossing seven interceptions. The Jets have scored 16 or fewer points in three of Wilson’s four starts against the Pats, and twice they’ve been held without a touchdown. Last week’s Jets offense in Dallas wasn’t inspiring, with Wilson back running it. I’ll run with the Pats this weekend, who, though in two losses, have looked solid against two potential playoff teams.
Pick: Patriots -2.5, Jets TT Under 16.5
Trevor Lawrence Anytime TD Scorer vs. Texans (+275, Caesars)
We’ll finish things out here with a pair of somewhat longshot picks. The Jaguars host the Texans after a tough loss to Kansas City at home. I fully expect them to bounce back against a Houston team this week that’s allowing 28 points per game through two weeks of the season. Not only that, but they’re allowing a ton of touchdowns on the ground. They’ve allowed three rushing TDs in both of their first two games. Trevor Lawrence isn’t hesitant about running the ball either, especially in goal-to-go situations. He’s got 12 carries so far on the year. Given all those factors, I like a sprinkle on Lawrence to run one in.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Anytime TD (has to be rushing)
Cowboys D/ST Anytime TD vs. Cardinals (+375, DraftKings)
Who knows, I might even sprinkle a little on the first TD at +1600. The Cowboys defense has been flat-out dominant through two games in 2023. They shut out the Giants in Week 1 and allowed just 10 points in Week 2. They lead the NFL with seven takeaways as a defense, and their defense & special teams have combined for a pair of TDs. Josh Dobbs has yet to throw an INT for Arizona, but that will happen eventually, and the Cardinals have put the ball on the ground five times in two weeks.
Pick: Cowboys D/ST Anytime TD (+375)
