The Minnesota Timberwolves are 4.5-point favorites heading into Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center on Wednesday, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. The matchup’s over/under is set at 206.5.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds
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Game Time and Information
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Timberwolves and Mavericks Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
The Timberwolves have a 20-21 record against the spread this season when favored by 4.5 points or more.
The Mavericks have a 4-7 record against the spread when an underdog by 4.5 points or more this season.
The Timberwolves and Mavericks average 24.4 more points between them than the over/under of 206.5 for this matchup.
Opponents of the two teams average a combined 15.6 more points per game (222.1) than this game’s over/under of 206.5 points.
The average total the Timberwolves have had set in games this year is 13.0 more points than this outing’s point total.
The average point total for Dallas this year is 27.0 points higher than this game’s over/under.
So far this season, Minnesota has put together a 40-40-2 record against the spread.
The Mavericks have a 48-34-0 record against the spread this year.
Timberwolves Stats & Insights
The Timberwolves have a +529 scoring differential, topping opponents by 6.5 points per game. They’re putting up 113.0 points per game to rank 18th in the league and are giving up 106.5 per contest to rank first in the NBA.
The Timberwolves grab 43.6 rebounds per game (15th in the league) while allowing 41.4 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 2.2 boards per game.
Minnesota knocks down 12.6 three-pointers per game (15th in the league) at a 38.7% rate (third-best in the NBA), compared to the 11.4 per game its opponents make at a 35.4% rate.
The Timberwolves’ 116.5 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 16th in the NBA, and the 109.9 points they allow per 100 possessions rank first in the league.
In 2023-24, the Timberwolves’ offense has been worse at home, where they average 112.0 points per game, compared to road games, where they score 114.0 per game. Defensively, they have been much tougher in home games, where they allow 103.7 points per game, versus playing on the road, where they allow their opponents to average 109.3 per game.
Mavericks Stats & Insights
The Mavericks are outscoring opponents by 2.3 points per game, with a +181 scoring differential overall. They put up 117.9 points per game (seventh in NBA) and allow 115.6 per contest (20th in league).
Dallas loses the rebound battle by 2.2 boards on average. It collects 42.9 rebounds per game, 21st in the league, while its opponents pull down 45.1.
The Mavericks knock down 14.6 three-pointers per game (third-most in the league) at a 36.9% rate (13th in NBA), compared to the 13.1 per game their opponents make, at a 36.8% rate.
The Mavericks average 118.4 points per 100 possessions on offense (10th in league), and give up 116.2 points per 100 possessions (17th in NBA).
At home, Dallas averages 118.7 points per game. Away, it scores 117.0.
Timberwolves Key Players to Watch
The Timberwolves active scoring leader is Anthony Edwards, who averages 25.9 per contest to go with 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists.
Mike Conley is averaging 11.4 points, 5.9 assists and 2.9 rebounds a game, while Rudy Gobert adds 14.0 points, 1.3 assists and 12.9 rebounds per outing.
Edwards makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Timberwolves, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.4 per contest.
Edwards averages 1.3 steals per game, while Gobert has 2.1 blocks per contest.
Mavericks Key Players to Watch
Luka Doncic has shown out this season to lead active Mavericks players in points (33.9 per game), rebounds (9.2 per game), and assists (9.8 per game).
Doncic averages 4.1 made threes per game.
Doncic’s 1.4 steals and Daniel Gafford’s 2.1 blocks per game are vital to the Mavericks’ defensive production.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Prediction
Over (206.5)
Timberwolves 116 – Mavericks 108