New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – September 16, 2023

Matt Rooney

Sep 16, 2023

The New Mexico State Aggies (1-2) will look to upset the New Mexico Lobos (1-1) on Saturday, September 16, 2023 at University Stadium. The line forecasts a close game, with the Lobos favored by 2.5 points. The over/under in this outing is 52 points.

New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Favorite, Moneyline, Total

Spread Favorite: Lobos (-2.5)

Moneyline: Lobos (-142), Aggies (+120)

Total: 52 points

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How to Watch New Mexico vs. New Mexico State

When: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET

Location: University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico

TV: MWN

Lobos 2023 Stats & Rankings

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	211 (422)	86
Rush yards	193.5 (387)	37
Points scored	33 (66)	60
Pass yards against	229.5 (459)	80
Rush yards against	116 (232)	64
Points allowed	31 (62)	104

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New Mexico 2023 Betting Info

The Lobos have a record of 1-1-0 against the spread this season.

New Mexico is a perfect 1-0 against the spread when favored by 2.5 points or more this season.

So far this season, two Lobos games have gone over the point total.

The Lobos’ average point total in outings this year is 50.5, 1.5 points below the total in this game.

Lobos Home/Away Splits (2022)

	Overall	Home	Away
Point Total AVG	40	39.6	40.5
Implied Total AVG	26.2	24	28.3
ATS Record	3-8-1	2-3-1	1-5-0
Over/Under Record	6-6-0	4-2-0	2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record	1-1	1-0	0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record	1-9	1-4	0-5

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New Mexico’s Offense vs. New Mexico State’s Defense (2023)

The Lobos’ passing attack averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt (34th in the FBS). The Aggies give up 9.7 per pass (124th in college football).

New Mexico State gives up 4.1 yards per rushing attempt (84th in the FBS). New Mexico is 19th in rushing, averaging 5.7 per carry.

The Lobos have the 37th-ranked rushing offense in the FBS (193.5 yards per game), and will be up against the 99th-ranked defense in that category, as the Aggies allow 161 per game.

Aggies 2023 Stats & Rankings

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	265.7 (797)	50
Rush yards	220.7 (662)	21
Points scored	35 (105)	12
Pass yards against	236.7 (710)	89
Rush yards against	161 (483)	99
Points allowed	31.7 (95)	107

New Mexico State 2023 Betting Info

The Aggies have won once against the spread this season.

In games it has played as at least 2.5-point favorites this season, New Mexico is 1-0 against the spread.

Two of the Aggies’ three games in 2023 have gone over the point total.

The Lobos’ average point total in matchups this year is 50.5, 1.5 points below the total in this game.

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Aggies Home/Away Splits (2022)

	Overall	Home	Away
Point Total AVG	48.3	49.5	47.3
Implied Total AVG	33.4	32.2	34.4
ATS Record	8-5-0	4-2-0	4-3-0
Over/Under Record	6-7-0	3-3-0	3-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record	3-1	2-1	1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record	3-4	1-1	2-3

New Mexico State’s Offense vs. New Mexico’s Defense (2023)

The Lobos give up third-down conversions on 50% of their opponents’ attempts (115th in the FBS). The Aggies have a 51.7% third-down conversion rate, which ranks 35th in college football.

New Mexico State averages 6.4 yards per rushing attempt (seventh in the FBS), and New Mexico gives up 3.7 per carry (64th in college football).

The Aggies have the 47th-ranked offense in the FBS (35 points per game), and will be facing the Lobos’ 104th-ranked defense (31 ppg).

New Mexico State averages 10.6 yards per pass attempt (ninth in the FBS), and New Mexico gives up 6.5 per pass (56th in college football).

New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick

Our prediction for New Mexico vs. New Mexico State sees the Lobos (-142 on the moneyline) as the pick to win. As for the over/under, we pick the over at 52 points.

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written by

Matt Rooney

Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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