SMU vs. East Carolina Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History & Picks – October 12, 2023

The SMU Mustangs (3-2) will face off against their AAC-rival, the East Carolina Pirates (1-4) in a matchup on Thursday, October 12, 2023 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. The Mustangs are considerable favorites in this one, with the spread sitting at 12.5 points. An over/under of 49.5 points has been set for the contest.

SMU vs. East Carolina Favorite, Moneyline, Total

  • Spread Favorite: Mustangs (-12.5)
  • Moneyline: Mustangs (-440), Pirates (+340)
  • Total: 49.5 points
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    How to Watch SMU vs. East Carolina

  • When: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
  • Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina
  • TV: ESPN
  • Mustangs 2023 Stats & Rankings

    Stat Average (Total) Rank
    Pass yards 256 (1280) 50
    Rush yards 177.8 (889) 45
    Points scored 33.8 (169) 63
    Pass yards against 181.6 (908) 19
    Rush yards against 134 (670) 62
    Points allowed 18.4 (92) 26

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    SMU 2023 Betting Info

  • The Mustangs have a record of 2-3-0 against the spread this season.
  • SMU is 2-1 against the spread when favored by 12.5 points or more this season.
  • Mustangs games have hit the over just once this season.
  • The average total the Mustangs have had set in matchups this year is 13 more points than this outing’s point total.
  • The Mustangs have covered the spread once in their past three contests while putting together a 2-1 record straight-up in those games.
  • In one of those three games, the final combined score surpassed the set total.
  • The Pirates’ past three outings have ended with an average of 48.5 points scored. That’s one fewer point than this contest’s over/under.
  • Mustangs Home/Away Splits (2022)

    Overall Home Away
    Point Total AVG 62.5 60.7 65.3
    Implied Total AVG 42.4 45 38.5
    ATS Record 2-3-0 2-1-0 0-2-0
    Over/Under Record 1-4-0 1-2-0 0-2-0
    Moneyline Favorite Record 2-0 2-0 0-0
    Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-0 0-2

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    SMU’s Offense vs. East Carolina’s Defense (2023)

  • SMU converts 40.8% of its third downs (65th in college football), while East Carolina’s defense ranks 113th in that category (44.6%)
  • The Mustangs have the 36th-ranked offense in the FBS (33.8 points per game), and will be facing the Pirates’ 72nd-ranked defense (25.6 ppg).
  • SMU averages 4.7 yards per carry (46th in college football) compared to the 3.4 per attempt East Carolina gives up (35th in the FBS).
  • Pirates 2023 Stats & Rankings

    Stat Average (Total) Rank
    Pass yards 169.2 (846) 118
    Rush yards 131 (655) 99
    Points scored 21 (105) 121
    Pass yards against 210.4 (1052) 45
    Rush yards against 118.2 (591) 40
    Points allowed 25.6 (128) 72

    East Carolina 2023 Betting Info

  • The Pirates have won twice against the spread this season.
  • SMU is 2-1 against the spread when favored by 12.5 points or more this season.
  • Two Pirates games (out of five) have hit the over this season.
  • The Mustangs’ average point total in matchups this season is 62.5, 13 points higher than the over/under in this game.
  • The Mustangs have covered the spread once in their last three contests while putting up a 2-1 record straight-up in those games.
  • Once in those three games, the final combined score surpassed the set total.
  • The past three Pirates games averaged one fewer point (48.5) than this matchup’s point total.
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    Pirates Home/Away Splits (2022)

    Overall Home Away
    Point Total AVG 48.4 47.5 49
    Implied Total AVG 30.6 27.5 32.7
    ATS Record 2-3-0 1-1-0 1-2-0
    Over/Under Record 2-3-0 1-1-0 1-2-0
    Moneyline Favorite Record 0-0 0-0 0-0
    Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-1 0-2

    East Carolina’s Offense vs. SMU’s Defense (2023)

  • The Pirates average five yards per pass attempt (133rd in the FBS) compared to the 6.4 per pass the Mustangs give up (27th in college football).
  • SMU concedes 315.6 yards per game (22nd-fewest in college football), and East Carolina gains 300.2 per game to rank 126th.
  • The Pirates have the 118th-ranked passing offense in the FBS (169.2 yards per game), and will be up against one of the FBS’ best passing defenses in the Mustangs, ranked 19th in that category (181.6 passing yards allowed per game).
  • East Carolina’s offense is 113th in the FBS at 21 points per game. It will be facing SMU’s defense which allows 18.4 per game (26th in college football).
  • SMU vs. East Carolina Prediction and Pick

    Our prediction for SMU vs. East Carolina is the Mustangs (-440 on the moneyline) as the pick to win. For the over/under, we prefer the under at 49.5 points.

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    written by

    Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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