SMU vs. North Texas Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – November 10, 2023

Two of college football’s strongest scorers battle when the SMU Mustangs (7-2) carry the seventh-ranked offense into a matchup with the North Texas Mean Green (3-6), who have the No. 23 offense, on Friday, November 10, 2023. The Mustangs are major, 21-point favorites. The over/under is 67 in the contest.

SMU vs. North Texas Favorite, Moneyline, Total

  • Spread Favorite: Mustangs (-21)
  • Moneyline: Mustangs (-1600), Mean Green (+900)
  • Total: 67 points
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    How to Watch SMU vs. North Texas

  • When: Friday, November 10, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET
  • Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Mustangs 2023 Stats & Rankings

    Stat Average (Total) Rank
    Pass yards 291.2 (2621) 19
    Rush yards 175.1 (1576) 42
    Points scored 40 (360) 8
    Pass yards against 166.4 (1498) 9
    Rush yards against 115.6 (1040) 28
    Points allowed 15.9 (143) 9

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    SMU 2023 Betting Info

  • The Mustangs have put together a 5-4-0 ATS record so far this year.
  • SMU has a 4-1 record against the spread when favored by 21 points or more this season.
  • So far this season, four out of the Mustangs’ nine games have gone over the point total.
  • The average total the Mustangs have had set in games this year is 8.3 fewer points than this outing’s point total.
  • The Mustangs are 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 overall over their past three games.
  • The final combined score of the past three North Texas games went over the set total once.
  • The past three Mean Green games averaged 0.3 more points (67.3) than this matchup’s over/under.
  • Mustangs Home/Away Splits (2023)

    Overall Home Away
    Point Total AVG 58.7 59.3 58.3
    Implied Total AVG 39.4 43.3 36.4
    ATS Record 5-4-0 3-1-0 2-3-0
    Over/Under Record 4-5-0 2-2-0 2-3-0
    Moneyline Favorite Record 6-0 3-0 3-0
    Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-0 0-2

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    SMU’s Offense vs. North Texas’ Defense (2023)

  • The Mustangs score 40 points per game (seventh-best in the FBS), and will be facing the Mean Green’s defense which is -1-worst in college football (36.7 ppg).
  • SMU has one of the best offenses in the FBS in yards per game (No. 13 at 466.3 YPG), and will be up against the 133rd-ranked North Texas defense (469.3 ypg allowed).
  • SMU has the 42nd-ranked rushing offense in the FBS (175.1 yards per game), and will be up against the 133rd-ranked defense in that category, as North Texas allows 261 per game.
  • Mean Green 2023 Stats & Rankings

    Stat Average (Total) Rank
    Pass yards 301.7 (2715) 13
    Rush yards 180.7 (1626) 36
    Points scored 34.8 (313) 24
    Pass yards against 208.3 (1875) 46
    Rush yards against 261 (2349) 133
    Points allowed 36.7 (330) 129

    North Texas 2023 Betting Info

  • Against the spread, the Mean Green are 5-3-1 this year.
  • SMU has a 4-1 record against the spread in games it was favored by 21 points or more this season.
  • The Mean Green have played nine games this year, and five of them have hit the over.
  • The average point total for Mustangs games this year is 8.3 less points than the total of 67 in this matchup.
  • The Mustangs are 2-1 against the spread over their past three games, and have a 3-0 straight-up record in those contests.
  • The final combined score of the last three North Texas games surpassed the set total one time.
  • The last three Mean Green games averaged 67.3 total points, 0.3 more points than this matchup’s point total.
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    Mean Green Home/Away Splits (2023)

    Overall Home Away
    Point Total AVG 63.2 65.3 60.5
    Implied Total AVG 36.6 37.2 35.8
    ATS Record 5-3-1 2-2-1 3-1-0
    Over/Under Record 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0
    Moneyline Favorite Record 1-1 1-0 0-1
    Moneyline Underdog Record 1-5 0-3 1-2

    North Texas’ Offense vs. SMU’s Defense (2023)

  • The Mean Green’s offense averages 7.8 yards per pass attempt (46th in the FBS). The Mustangs’ defense gives up 5.6 yards per passing play (seventh in college football).
  • North Texas is 34th in the FBS in third-down percentage (43.7%), and will be up against the seventh-ranked SMU third-down defense (28.1%).
  • SMU vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

    Our prediction for SMU vs. North Texas sees the Mustangs (-1600 on the moneyline) as the pick to win. Based on our analysis of the historical stats for this matchup, we prefer the under at 67 points.

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    written by

    Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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