Texas State vs. Arkansas State Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – November 18, 2023

Matt Rooney

Nov 18, 2023

Sun Belt action features the Texas State Bobcats (6-4) taking on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5) on Saturday, November 18, 2023 at Centennial Bank Stadium. The Bobcats are favored by 3 points. The over/under is 59.5 in the contest.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State Favorite, Moneyline, Total

Spread Favorite: Bobcats (-3)

Moneyline: Bobcats (-155), Red Wolves (+130)

Total: 59.5 points

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How to Watch Texas State vs. Arkansas State

When: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Location: Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas

TV: ESPN+

Bobcats 2023 Stats & Rankings

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	263.6 (2636)	39
Rush yards	201.1 (2011)	15
Points scored	34.9 (349)	23
Pass yards against	248.2 (2482)	111
Rush yards against	153.2 (1532)	74
Points allowed	28.5 (285)	91

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Texas State 2023 Betting Info

The Bobcats have compiled a 5-5-0 record against the spread this season.

Texas State has a 2-2 record against the spread when favored by 3 points or more this season.

So far this season, three out of the Bobcats’ 10 games have hit the over.

The Bobcats’ average total in matchups this season has been 61.4, 1.9 points higher than the total in this particular game.

The Bobcats have covered the spread once in their last three contests while putting together a 1-2 record straight-up in those games.

In one of those three games, the final combined score exceeded the set total.

The last three Red Wolves games averaged 57.2 total points, 2.3 fewer points than this matchup’s point total.

Bobcats Home/Away Splits (2023)

	Overall	Home	Away
Point Total AVG	61.4	61.5	61.3
Implied Total AVG	36.5	37.2	35.8
ATS Record	5-5-0	2-3-0	3-2-0
Over/Under Record	3-6-1	1-3-1	2-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record	4-1	3-0	1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record	1-3	0-1	1-2

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Texas State’s Offense vs. Arkansas State’s Defense (2023)

The Red Wolves’ defense ranks 117th in yards conceded per game (432.0), while the Bobcats’ offense is 13th in college football at 464.7 yards per game.

Texas State’s rushing game ranks 15th in the FBS (201.1 yards per game), while Arkansas State allows 176.0 per game (108th-ranked run defense).

The Bobcats’ 21st-ranked scoring offense puts up 34.9 points per game. The Red Wolves have the 105th-ranked scoring defense (30.8 ppg).

Texas State ranks 26th with 5.0 yards per carry, compared to the 4.8 per rush Arkansas State allows (105th in the FBS).

Red Wolves 2023 Stats & Rankings

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	222.2 (2222)	73
Rush yards	149.7 (1497)	79
Points scored	23.5 (235)	98
Pass yards against	256.0 (2560)	116
Rush yards against	176.0 (1760)	108
Points allowed	30.8 (308)	105

Arkansas State 2023 Betting Info

The Red Wolves have five wins in 10 contests against the spread this season.

In games it has played as at least 3-point favorites this season, Texas State is 2-2 against the spread.

The Red Wolves have seen four of its 10 games hit the over.

The average total in Bobcats games this season is 1.9 more points than the total of 59.5 in this game.

The Bobcats are 1-2 against the spread in their last three games, and have a 1-2 straight-up record in those contests.

Once in those three games, the final combined score exceeded the set total.

The past three Red Wolves games averaged 2.3 fewer points (57.2) than this matchup’s over/under.

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Red Wolves Home/Away Splits (2023)

	Overall	Home	Away
Point Total AVG	54.8	54.3	55.2
Implied Total AVG	34.2	34.0	34.4
ATS Record	5-4-1	2-2-1	3-2-0
Over/Under Record	4-6-0	1-4-0	3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record	0-0	0-0	0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record	4-4	2-2	2-2

Arkansas State’s Offense vs. Texas State’s Defense (2023)

Texas State’s defense allows 248.2 yards through the air per game (111th in the FBS). Arkansas State’s 222.2 passing yards per game is 73rd in college football.

Arkansas State ranks 44th in the FBS at 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Texas State gives up 7.5 yards per passing play (77th in college football).

Texas State vs. Arkansas State Prediction and Pick

Our prediction for Texas State vs. Arkansas State is the Bobcats (-155 on the moneyline) as the pick to win. Based on our analysis of the historical stats for this matchup, we recommend betting on the under at 59.5 points.

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Or before you bet, why not check out our guide to betting on college football which breaks down how to bet the moneyline, and over/under totals above.

And finally, make sure college football betting is legal in your state by staying up to date with our guide.

For more college football betting news, check out our free college football picks, best bets, and predictions.

written by

Matt Rooney

Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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