Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NLDS Game 1

The Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies to start the NLDS on Saturday at 6:07 PM ET, live on TBS from Truist Park. The Braves are -207 favorites on the moneyline to win this matchup against the Phillies (+173).

Spencer Strider will get the ball for Atlanta while Philadelphia will counter with Ranger Suarez.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds

  • Braves odds to win: -207
  • Phillies odds to win: +173
  • Spread: Braves -1.5
  • Total: 8.5 runs
  • Braves vs. Phillies Promo Codes

    Who Will Win Braves vs. Phillies?

    Braves and Phillies Betting Trends

    The Braves have a 96-53 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 64.4% of those games).

    When playing as moneyline favorites with odds of -207 or shorter, Atlanta has gone 37-16 (69.8%).

    The Phillies have won 23, or 46%, of the 50 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

    Philadelphia has played as an underdog of +173 or more twice this season and lost both games.

    The Braves have combined with opponents to hit the over on the total 92 times this season for a 92-67-3 record against the over/under.

    The Phillies and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 74 of their 164 opportunities.

    Braves Stats & Insights

    The Braves are the top-scoring team in MLB action averaging 5.8 runs per game (947 total).

    The Atlanta Braves lead baseball with 307 total home runs, averaging 1.9 per game.

    The Braves lead the majors with a .276 batting average.

    Atlanta strikes out eight times per game to rank sixth in the majors.

    The Braves pitching staff is second in the majors with a collective 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

    Atlanta has a 4.18 team ERA that ranks 15th across all MLB pitching staffs.

    Phillies Stats & Insights

    The Phillies have scored 796 runs this season, which ranks eighth in MLB.

    Philadelphia ranks eighth in Major League Baseball with 220 home runs.

    The Phillies rank eighth in MLB with a .256 team batting average.

    Philadelphia ranks 23rd with an average of 9.1 strikeouts per game.

    The Phillies have a 9.1 K/9 this season as a pitching staff, seventh-best in baseball.

    Philadelphia pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.04 ERA this year, which ranks 11th in MLB.

    Braves Key Players to Watch

    Strider gets the start for the Braves, his 33rd of the season. He is 20-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 281 strikeouts in 186 2/3 innings pitched.

    Ronald Acuna Jr. leads Atlanta in batting average (.337) this season while adding 41 home runs and 106 RBI.

    Matt Olson leads Atlanta in home runs with 54 and runs batted in with 139.

    Ozzie Albies has collected 167 base hits, an OBP of .336 and a slugging percentage of .513 this season.

    Austin Riley has 180 hits and an OBP of .347 to go with a slugging percentage of .519 this season.

    Phillies Key Players to Watch

    Suarez (4-6) will take to the mound for the Phillies and make his 23rd start of the season.

    Kyle Schwarber paces the Phillies with 47 home runs.

    Trea Turner has 35 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks while batting .266.

    Alec Bohm is batting .274 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 42 walks.

    Bryce Harper has a club-high .293 batting average.

    Braves and Phillies Injuries

    Braves: Charlie Morton: 15 Day IL (Finger), Collin McHugh: 15 Day IL (Shoulder), Jackson Stephens: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Yonny Chirinos: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Nick Anderson: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Mike Soroka: 60 Day IL (Forearm), Dylan Lee: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Kolby Allard: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Sam Hilliard: 60 Day IL (Heel), Huascar Ynoa: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Tyler Matzek: 60 Day IL (Elbow)

    Phillies: Dylan Covey: 15 Day IL (Back), Erich Uelmen: 60 Day IL (Arm), Rhys Hoskins: 60 Day IL (Acl)

    Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

  • Score Prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
  • How to Bet on Braves vs. Phillies

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    written by

    Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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