Bills vs. Commanders Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, September 24, 2023

The Washington Commanders (2-0) will do their best to prove oddsmakers wrong when they play the Buffalo Bills (1-1) on Sunday, September 24, 2023 as 5.5-point underdogs.

Bills vs. Commanders Game Info

  • When: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: FedExField in Landover, Maryland
  • TV Info: CBS
  • Spread Favorite: Bills (-5.5)
  • Moneyline: Bills (-245), Commanders (+200)
  • Total: 44 points
  • Bills Betting Insights

  • Buffalo put together an 8-8-0 ATS record last year.
  • The Bills were favored by 5.5 points or more 13 times last season, and covered the spread in five of those contests.
  • Last season, six Buffalo games went over the point total.
  • The Bills put together a 13-3 record in games they were favored on the moneyline last season (winning 81.2% of those games).
  • Buffalo was 4-4 against the spread, and 6-2 overall, in away games last season.
  • The average total Buffalo had set in games last year was 3.8 more points than this outing’s point total.
  • Commanders Betting Insights

  • Washington compiled a 9-8-0 record against the spread last year.
  • The Commanders covered the spread twice when an underdog by 5.5 points or more last year (in four opportunities).
  • Washington games went over the point total five out of 17 times last season.
  • Last season, the Commanders won four out of the eight games in which they were the underdog.
  • Washington covered the spread five times at home last year and was 4-5 in home contests.
  • The over/under for this game is 2.2 points higher than the average scoring total for Washington games last season (41.8).
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    Buffalo vs. Washington: Recent Matchups

    Bills vs Commanders: Last Five Meetings
    Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
    9/26/2021 Bills Bills -7 45.5 -350 +270 481-290 43-21 BUF
    11/3/2019 N/A Bills N/A N/A N/A N/A 268-243 24-9 BUF

    Key Players for Bills vs. Commanders (2022 Stats)

    Buffalo

    Name Position Stats
    Josh Allen QB 4,283 YDS (63.3%) / 35 TD / 14 INT
    762 RUSH YDS / 7 RUSH TD / 47.6 RUSH YPG
    Stefon Diggs WR 108 REC / 1,429 YDS / 11 TD / 89.3 YPG
    Latavius Murray RB 760 YDS / 6 TD / 58.5 YPG / 4.4 YPC
    27 REC / 132 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 10.2 REC YPG
    Gabriel Davis WR 48 REC / 836 YDS / 7 TD / 55.7 YPG
    Matt Milano LB 99 TKL / 12.00 TFL / 1.50 SACK / 3 INT
    Leonard Floyd DE 59 TKL / 10.00 TFL / 9.00 SACK
    Taron Johnson CB 89 TKL / 6.00 TFL / 1 INT / 9 PD
    Taylor Rapp S 92 TKL / 2.00 TFL / 2 INT / 6 PD

    Washington

    Name Position Stats
    Jacoby Brissett QB 2,608 YDS (64.0%) / 12 TD / 6 INT
    243 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 15.2 RUSH YPG
    Terry McLaurin WR 77 REC / 1,191 YDS / 5 TD / 70.1 YPG
    Antonio Gibson RB 546 YDS / 3 TD / 36.4 YPG / 3.7 YPC
    46 REC / 353 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 23.5 REC YPG
    Curtis Samuel WR 64 REC / 656 YDS / 4 TD / 38.6 YPG
    Cody Barton LB 133 TKL / 4.00 TFL / 2.00 SACK / 2 INT
    Da’Ron Payne DT 64 TKL / 18.00 TFL / 11.50 SACK
    Jonathan Allen DT 64 TKL / 16.00 TFL / 7.50 SACK / 1 INT
    Jamin Davis LB 104 TKL / 9.00 TFL / 3.00 SACK

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    Bills’ Offense vs. Commanders’ Defense (2022)

    Bills Offense Stats (Rank) Commanders Defense
    28.4 (2) Points/Gm 20.2 (7)
    0.4 (2) Points/Play 0.3 (1)
    397.6 (2) Yards/Gm 304.6 (3)
    258.1 (7) Pass Yards/Gm 191.3 (4)
    139.5 (7) Rush Yards/Gm 113.4 (11)
    6.1 (2) Yards/Play 5.2 (11)
    7.2 (6) Yards/Pass 6.3 (10)
    5.2 (2) Yards/Rush 4.4 (15)
    50.3% (1) 3rd Down % 31.9% (1)
    60.3% (9) Red Zone % 51.9% (8)
    27 (30) Turnovers 18 (26)
    33 (8) Sacks 43 (12)

    Commanders’ Offense vs. Bills’ Defense (2022)

    Commanders Offense Stats (Rank) Bills Defense
    18.9 (24) Points/Gm 17.9 (2)
    0.3 (17) Points/Play 0.3 (1)
    330.3 (20) Yards/Gm 319.1 (6)
    204.2 (21) Pass Yards/Gm 214.6 (15)
    126.1 (12) Rush Yards/Gm 104.6 (5)
    4.9 (27) Yards/Play 5.1 (7)
    6.3 (21) Yards/Pass 6.0 (5)
    4.0 (27) Yards/Rush 4.3 (11)
    35.2% (25) 3rd Down % 37.5% (7)
    51.1% (25) Red Zone % 44.9% (2)
    23 (17) Turnovers 27 (4)
    48 (26) Sacks 40 (14)

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    written by

    Luis Escalante is a seasoned expert in NBA betting and Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. With over a decade of experience in sports analytics and a strong background in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting, Luis has become a well-respected and trusted authority in the industry. His extensive knowledge of data analysis and sports betting strategies has helped countless individuals make informed decisions and gain an edge in the competitive world of betting. Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014, Luis is committed to providing the highest quality insights and advice.

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