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Cubs vs. Brewers Betting Odds and Prediction (Sunday, July 26)

Chicago Cubs, Sports Betting

Yu Darvish couldn’t maintain his dominant second half form of 2019 in his first start of the season on Saturday afternoon. A day after being shutdown by Kyle Hendricks, Milwaukee got on Darvish early, knocking him out after just four innings. The Brewers proceeded to tack on against Cubs middle relievers on their way to an 8-3 win, which sets up a rubber match on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Illinois betters can bet on today’s game at BetRivers and get a $250 first deposit match by clicking here.

DraftKings Sports Illinois has yet to launch,  but you can now pre-register  and get a $100 bonus right here.

Heading into the series finale, Chicago will look to win the three-game set behind swing man turned starter, Tyler Chatwood. He’ll be opposed by a pitcher who also knows a thing or two about being used multiple ways in Freddy Peralta. Where should those playing on the Illinois online sports betting market put their money?

Let’s get into it with our Cubs vs. Brewers betting preview, stacked with odds, trends, and picks for the the series finale.

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Cubs vs. Brewers Odds

Let’s take a look at the current Cubs vs. Brewers odds, courtesy of BetRivers.

Sunday, July 26, 1:20 PM CDT (Tyler Chatwood vs. Freddy Peralta)

•   BetRivers Sportsbook: Cubs (-117)/Brewers (+104); Over/Under N/A at post time

Note: Cubs vs. Brewers odds are subject to change prior to game time. These odds are as of 6:50 am CDT.

For the third straight game to open the season, the Cubs are favored. They won as a short favorite on Opening Day, but dropped one as a sizable -155 yesterday afternoon.

Cubs vs. Brewers Betting Prediction and Pick

The Pitching Matchup

As always, so much of what goes into evaluating a game has to do with the pitching matchup. In determining both the Cubs vs. Brewers odds and picks, the probable pitchers are the first and foremost consideration.

Tyler Chatwood

Tyler Chatwood is scheduled to oppose Freddy Peralta on Sunday. Chatwood, who entered the spring fighting for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot, was primarily utilized as a reliever a season ago. And now here he is starting the Cubs’ third game.

In order to realize his full potential, the 30-year-old must improve upon inconsistent command. In two seasons with the Cubs, Chicago is 11-5 when he starts at Wrigley Field.

One thing to love here is his performance against the Brewers in 2019. Granted, Darvish was similarly dominant against the Brewers and that didn’t help much on Saturday. Still, in Chatwood’s six appearances against the Milwaukee (one start), he pitched to a 1.26 ERA over 14.1 IP, allowing just seven hits while striking out 23 batters. Meanwhile, he held Brewers hitters to a .140 batting average and measly .491 OPS.

Freddy Peralta

He will be opposed by Peralta, who was 7-3 with a 5.29 ERA last season in 39 games (eight starts). Peralta struggled as a starter, posting a 7.07 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in those eight games. One thing that he has going for him is that he can simply miss bats. In 85 IP, he struck out 12.2 batters per nine innings. With a slider added to his arsenal, the Brewers are hoping a more well-rounded Peralta can better compliment an electric fastball. If he does, he’s in line to take a big step forward this season.

Betting Notes to Know

Here are some notes to consider as you evaluate the Cubs vs. Brewers odds and make your picks.

⇒  The Cubs were a good home favorite last season. They went 47-26 overall, which turned bettors a $525 profit. Meanwhile, the Brewers were only 18-25 as a road underdog (-$209).

⇒  Dating back to the start of the 2016 season, the Cubs are 100-67 as a home favorite during games that begin between 12pm and 3pm, but because of heavy moneylines, this has been an unprofitable scenario, one that has lost bettors $-916 in that timeframe (this includes yesterday’s loss). Last season, the Cubs were 24-16 during early starts, netting bettors $5.

⇒  The Brewers were 24-19 on the road last season following a win. They were also 9-5 in road games following a win in which they scored at least eight runs. They showed an ability to carry some momentum last season.

⇒  The Cubs are 29-20 as a home favorite against the Brewers dating back to the 2015 season, which has been an unprofitable -$323.

⇒  Since 2016, the Cubs are 17-7 as a home favorite of -120 or less. Since the start of 2018, they are 11-5. In that same timeframe, they are 10-4 (+$528) when they’re favored by -115 or less. In short, they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball as a short home favorite.

⇒ Finally, the Cubs have been a good bounce back team at home following a loss at home. Since the start of the 2018 season, Chicago is 37-20, including 17-12 last season.

Cubs vs. Brewers Pick

I’m not going to over think this one. I trust Chatwood more than I trust Peralta, while recent historical trends strongly point in favor of the Cubs.

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction: I’m taking the Cubs -117.

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Author: BN Staff

From the collective mind of the Bleacher Nation staff.