Let’s get right into our favorite Bears-Panthers props pick for Week 6.
Usually, you want to go with a guy who is hot, one riding some momentum, but I’m going the completely opposite direction this week–like a guy sitting at a roulette table betting on even for the 10th time because it can’t possibly be odd again…right?
Not that I know anything about that.
Anyway, I’m riding with slumping running back David Montgomery to go over 59.5 rushing yards.
For purposes of full disclosure, I took Montgomery to go over the short total of 47.5 yards against Tampa Bay last Thursday, and I lost. In fact, I wasn’t even close. He rushed for just 29 yards on 10 carries against an elite Bucs run defense.
But you know what they say–if at first you lose a bet, get back on the horse, and HAMMER the same bet the following week.
Okay, maybe they don’t say that, but that’s exactly what I’m doing with Montgomery against a bad Panthers run defense. Here’s why.
Panthers Can’t Stop the Run
After failing to eclipse 30 yards in each of his previous two games, Montgomery should be able to take advantage of a favorable matchup this week. And I mean favorable.
The Panthers have the NFL’s No. 25 run defense, allowing 133.4 yards per game. They’re also the league’s second-worst team in terms of yards allowed per carry (5.4). That’s brutal, and if Chicago is to get a stagnant offense rolling today, they need to get Montgomery rolling. Certainly, this appears to be the game to do it.
Despite his recent struggles, the second-year back has been generally consistent since entering the league. Prior to last week, Montgomery had never gone three straight games without a 50-yard rushing performance, and I doubt the streak extends to four today.
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Matt Nagy Must Adapt
I also like Montgomery in this spot because Matt Nagy’s offense stinks right now.
Nick Foles has thrown the ball 42 times in each of the last two games. The Bears have scored just 39 total points (19.5 ppg) in those two games.
That’s not good enough, and the one-dimensional aspect of this offense is a big reason why. Montgomery has gotten just 20 total carries over the last two weeks, and this current mix simply isn’t working. It would be insane for Nagy to stick with such splits today against a Carolina defense that is brutal on the ground but is fifth against the pass, allowing just 223 yards per game.
I expect the pass-happy Nagy to look at the matchups and finally rely on the ground game at least a little bit more this week.
Bears-Panthers Prop Pick
I’m taking Montgomery to go over 59.5 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can grab this prop and a $1,000 risk free bet at DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking right here.