The Bears and Rams meet to close out Week 7, and this Monday Night Football showdown between two of the NFC’s top teams figures to draw significant betting action. That being said, let’s waste little time in getting to our Bears vs. Rams picks and predictions.
Spoiler alert: I’m not too confident of Chicago possessing the conference’s best record come night’s end. My apologies, Illinois.
It’s crazy, right? I don’t mean that it’s crazy the Bears are good, or that they’re well-positioned to make the playoffs. But yeah, it is a bit crazy that we’re talking about this team having an opportunity to end Week 7 with the NFC’s best record.
Ostensibly, they should be in good position to do it.
Bears vs. Rams Betting Pick, Prediction
The Bears (5-1) are yielding just 19.3 points per game. The Rams (4-2) are allowing 19.0 points per game.
Both teams feature somewhat underwhelming offenses led by streaky quarterbacks. Maybe the Rams have a bit more firepower, but who do you trust more with the game on the line in the waning moments – Jared Goff or Nick Foles?
Hell, despite the Bears failing to dazzle, the Rams aren’t exactly the high-octane offense of seasons past. We are talking about a unit producing 25.3 points per game, which is good for the NFL’s No. 18 scoring offense. And they’ve put up these mediocre numbers against who, exactly?
Oh, that’s right! The NFC East. The 6-19-1 NFC East. The NFC East that is well on pace to play out as the worst division in the history of the sport.
If you are a) a Bears fan or b) hammering the Bears tonight, well, then you’re probably feeling pretty damn good right now about grabbing a six-point underdog that could very well win the game outright. And I totally get that, so a word of advice from me, your friend, a guy you have never met – stop reading now.
Bears vs. Rams Line Doesn’t Pass Smell Test
I wanted to back the Bears tonight. I did. I just couldn’t stop asking myself one question…
Two mediocre offenses. Two excellent defense. The Rams haven’t beaten anyone. It just makes no sense.
So the skeptic in me, the one who was all juiced up to back the Bears, did some digging. And now I’m running the other way.
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Bears vs. Rams Betting Trends Are Cause For Concern
Betting trends don’t tell the full story, and, often, they are just discussion fodder. For instance, here’s a cool one. After the Cardinals’ outright win over the Seahawks last night, did you know that underdogs are now 16-6 ATS in games that kickoff 7 p.m. EST or later this season?
While that’s great, there’s no direct correlation between this trend and what’s to transpire in Inglewood tonight. In fact, if anything, you could just as easily argue that it’s exactly why you should go the other way and play the favorite here. Underdogs have covered eight consecutive night games. The last favorite to cover came back in Week 4 when the Packers did it against the Falcons, which is pretty unbelievable, but it has no impact on tonight’s game.
Some trends, however, particularly ones that provide some insight into fishy lines, are a different story.
Bears vs. Rams Betting Trends
Typically, if you’re asking why a line looks like off, there’s a reason for it. In this case, the big spread here is a huge red flag:
- Teams that have won 80 percent of its games and are at least a five-point underdog in the seventh game of the season or later are just 2-10 ATS overall and 0-4 ATS in primetime.
- Underdogs of 5-6 points that have won at least 75% of its games are 4-12-1 ATS in October and just 2-11-1 ATS when a 5.5-6 point underdog.
- Underdogs of at least six points that have won at least 75% of its games are 2-5 ATS in primetime games after the month of September.
In other words, good teams that are big underdogs are big underdogs for a reason – they’re probably not going to cover.
If you want a more general trend, similar to the primetime underdog hot streak mentioned above, five to six-point underdogs are only 12-23-2 ATS on Monday Night Football dating back to the 2003 season. This includes 1-11 ATS over their last 12 games, 0-6 ATS over their last six, and 0-3 ATS this season.
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Bears vs. Rams Prediction
Look, I wanted to take the Bears. I wanted to ignore the inconvenient truth that Chicago is scoring just 21.3 points per game (No. 27), gaining just 312 yards per game (No. 28), and 4.8 yards per play (No. 28).
I’d also like to ignore that we use words like “opportunistic” and “clutch” to describe the Bears offense because it’s largely inefficient and not particularly good. We use these words because the Bears are 5-1, making it difficult to be call it what it truly is. And don’t forget, Chicago throws the ball 64% of the time, the fourth-most often among NFL offenses, despite averaging just 5.6 yards per pass — a figure near the bottom of the league.
Maybe the Chicago defense wreaks havoc against a fairly mediocre Rams offense tonight, and maybe Foles keeps the magic rolling, or at least keeps things close. After all, the reality remains that they’re getting a ton of points here.
For me, however, I think the line is telling, and if history serves as any indication, the Rams are the right side tonight.
Bears vs. Rams Pick
I’m rocking with the Rams -6 over the Bears.
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