When it comes to Bears vs. Rams prop picks for this big Week 7 Monday Night Football showdown, I recommend not overthinking things.
For instance, despite middling production, Bears running back David Montgomery has seen his touches increase over each of the last three weeks:
- Colts (Week 4): 10 carries, 3 receptions (13 touches)
- Bucs (Week 5): 10 carries, 7 receptions (17 touches)
- Panthers (Week 6): 19 carries, 4 receptions (23 touches)
That increase makes him a good play tonight.
The Week 6 numbers are particularly notable as Matt Nagy finally, finally made an effort to run the football with some consistency against the Panthers. This week, against a Rams defense that has excelled against the pass but struggled against the run, I expect that to again be the case once again.
That’s why I’m circling David Montgomery to cash some Bears-Rams props tonight in legal online sports betting markets such as Illinois.
Bears vs. Rams Props
Let’s jump into the first of two Bears props I like tonight.
Montgomery to Score a Touchdown (+110)
Montgomery has only scored on two of his 325 touches through six weeks, but I like him to score tonight.
His recent uptick in volume is part of the equation, but this is also a favorable matchup in multiple ways.
After a rough stretch of games in which he struggled against elite run defenses, his production jumped against a vulnerable Carolina run defense in Week 6. If the Bears are going to move the football against an elite pass defense, and if they’re going to put points on the board tonight, it’s likely to be because of Montgomery.
Los Angeles possesses a solid defense, but it is a unit that is susceptible to the run. It is allowing 4.4 yards per carry thus far and is only league-average in terms of limiting opposing running backs’ fantasy production. Opposing backs are producing nearly 17 fantasy points per week in standard scoring leagues, as they have accumulated 547 rushing yards, 305 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns.
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Rams Defense Allowing Steady Production Against Backs
Moreover, backs are averaging six catches and 51 yards per game against the Rams defense. Not only is it allowing the eighth-most targets per game to opposing running backs, it’s a group that is also allowing a 74% completion rate.
Also keep in mind that only Washington is allowing less fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers than Los Angeles this season. The Bears have thrown the football 64% of the time (fourth-most in the NFL), but they’ve been largely inefficient, both in terms of completion percentage and yards per attempt. Much like last week, I suspect Nagy realizes that he needs to ensure his lead tailback is a major part of the offensive game plan.
So yeah, while Montgomery is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry over his last four contests, I expect him to get some red zone opportunities and find the end zone to cash this prop tonight.
Montgomery Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Again, no overthinking is allowed here. Montgomery has exceeded 30 yards receiving in four of his last five games, his targets have nearly doubled in the absence of Tarik Cohen, and the Rams are vulnerable to pass catchers out of the backfield. The value here is simply too good to pass up.
The best odds for this prop pick are at DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to get Montgomery over 23.5 yards up to $1,000 in free bets.
Bears vs. Rams Prop Picks
Here are two Bears vs. Rams prop picks:
Note: Be sure to also check out our Bears vs. Rams betting pick.