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bears vikings odds pick prediction

Bears vs. Vikings Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: Trust Trubisky (Seriously)

Sports Betting

It’s do or die for the Bears and Vikings this week and before we get to the pick and prediction, there’s two simple words I just can’t seem to shake as I size up this one. Trust Trubisky.

And if you are wondering, no, I was not drinking before or during the writing of this Bears vs. Vikings betting preview.

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Last week, the Bears snapped their excruciating six-game losing streak with a blowout win over the Texans. And listen, I’m not telling you that a low-pressure win over a bad and shorthanded Houston squad suddenly makes the Bears a good football team.

In fact, I can confidently tell you that even on the Bears’ best day, this is a completely mediocre team, but you know what? The Vikings, too, are a mediocre team, and mediocre teams make the playoffs every year. That is why, despite both teams blowing several opportunities throughout the first 14 weeks of the regular season, the Bears and Vikings meet in Minneapolis with their playoff hopes still very much alive.

According to FiveThirtyEight, both teams enter play with a 20% chance to reach the postseason. With a win, however, the Bears’ odds rise to 44%, while the Vikings’ odds improve to 34% with a victory. I hinted which way I’m going above, but let’s get into the why in our Bears vs. Vikings picks and predictions for this Week 15 matchup.

Bears vs. Vikings Odds

If you’ve been reading our previews this season, you know I’m fascinated with how frequently the Bears have been underdogs. Nothing is different this week. Chicago enters this matchup as the underdog for the 12th time in 14 games.

That’s not to say the odds are unjustified. Minnesota took care of Chicago on the road by a 19-13 margin in early-November, and, ostensibly, there’s no reason to think the Bears are suddenly the superior team.

Still, with the spread set under a field goal, oddsmakers at Illinois sports betting apps such as DraftKings Sportsbook see this one as close.

Bears+10 (-110)+400O 47.5
Saints-10 (-110)-500U 47.5

Earlier in the week, the Vikings were a 3.5-point favorite, but the spread has shrunk to under a field goal. As for the total, it has stayed steady at 46.5 points.

Bears vs. Vikings Betting Pick, Prediction

With the game setup out of the way, let’s get to the Bears vs. Vikings betting pick and score prediction.

Trust Trubisky.

A quick look at the Bears’ overall offensive metrics show that this is a team that remains among the worst in several key categories:

  • 319.8 yards per game (28th)
  • 226.6 passing yards per game (24th)
  • 93.2 rushing yards per game (28th)
  • 21.7 points per game (25th)

This is all very bad, obviously–but these numbers aren’t an accurate representation of what has been a vastly improved offense since Mitch Trubisky reentered the lineup a few weeks ago. Over the last three games, the Bears have produced 91 points (30.3 points per game) and 383 yards per game. That’s nearly 63 yards and nine points better than their season per game average.

Meanwhile, Trubisky is completing 67.3% of his pass attempts for 776 yards and seven touchdowns against just two picks. That’s good for a 100 quarterback rating. Not bad, Mitch!

Trubisky’s solid play has also helped reawaken David Montgomery, who after a sleepy start has come on with 288 rushing yards, 121 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns over his last three games.

Forget the Vikings’ defensive performance at Soldier Field a few weeks back. That Minnesota performance was an outlier–and this is a different Chicago offense. Against a defense allowing the ninth-highest rating to opposing quarterbacks this season, there’s no reason to think that Trubisky can’t continue his much improved play this week.

Injury Outlook

The Bears will be without corner Buster Skrine for a second straight week. Big names such as Khalil Mack, Jimmy Graham and Deon Bush are questionable for the Bears.

Minnesota tight end Kyle Rudolph and linebacker Erik Kendricks will both miss the game. Obviously, those absences are a huge blow for the Vikings. Running back Alexander Mattison is also questionable.

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Bears vs. Vikings Betting Trends

Small late-season division road underdogs that lost the previous matchup are always a good play. Since the 2003 season, division road underdogs of three points or less that lost the previous meeting are 17-10-1 ATS. Such underdogs of 2.5 points or less are 11-6 ATS.

Generally speaking, the Vikings are a good play at home under head coach Mike Zimmer. They are 34-20-1 ATS at home and 26-16-1 ATS as a home favorite. The Vikings are also 6-3 ATS as a home favorite of less than three points.

However, the Vikings are just 7-8 ATS as a home favorite in division games under Zimmer, so while Chicago is just 1-6 ATS over its last seven division games, this isn’t exactly some impossible cover spot for the Bears.

Game Total

As for total, late season under plays are usually a good idea. In Weeks 15-17, the under is 26-13-1 in division games with a total that closes between 46-47 points.

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Bears vs. Vikings Prediction

I don’t care about the first game between these two teams. In fact, the Bears’ poor performance in that November meeting is part of the reason I like them this time around. History shows that division teams often avenge previous losses, particularly as a short road underdog, which is what the Bears are in this spot.

I’m not going to pretend the Bears suddenly possess one of the game’s most potent attacks, but the unit’s numbers over the last three weeks are encouraging. This isn’t the same offense as it was under Nick Foles. With Kendricks sidelined, I’m willing to bank a suspect Minnesota defense plays more in line with its underwhelming season statistics.

Maybe Trubisky isn’t the Bears’ quarterback of the future, but he’s been on a nice run here in recent weeks, and I think his resurgence, along with that of Montgomery, is enough to keep the Bears’ postseason hopes alive for at least another week.

Bears vs. Vikings Pick

I’m taking the Bears to pull the road upset. I’ll take Chicago +2.5 to cover and win outright.

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Author: BN Staff

From the collective mind of the Bleacher Nation staff.