NEWSLETTER
I was browsing the depths of the Bleacher Nation media folder when stumbled on this old and terrible, but also excellent and awesome, photoshop of Kyle Hendricks on Babe Ruth’s body.
I have absolutely no idea why I made it, but I’m pretty sure it means Kyle Hendricks is going to win the NL Silver Slugger award for pitchers this season – possibly the last pitching Silver Slugger ever if the universal DH comes along after the next CBA. (Brett: Yeah, so the reason you don’t remember making it, Michael, is because I made it. And, yes, it is completely terrible!)
All jokes aside, this did get me thinking about the chances certain Cubs players had at individual awards this year, as well as the team’s chances to win the division/make it deep into the postseason, and ultimately win the World Series. And then I remembered, sports gambling is legal in Illinois now and a lot of Cubs players are being slept on after last season … is there an edge here? As it turns out, yeah, there probably is.
And since I *love* betting on the Cubs, when I’m going to bet at all, I thought we’d take a look at some of the best bet it all on Chicago Cubs odds out there. Because there are some SERIOUSLY undervalued numbers at the moment. I really believe that. Let’s take a look.
NL Cy Young Award Winner
Obviously, the Cubs don’t have a ton of great options here, especially now that the 2020 runner-up was traded to the Padres, but there is absolutely NO DOUBT in my mind that Kyle Hendricks is (1) a legitimate candidate and (2) way undervalued. Just check out some of these odds:
• Fanduel Illinois Sportsbook: +5,500
• Draftkings Illinois Sportsbook: +6,600
• BetRivers Illinois Sportsbook: +6,600
• PointsBet Illinois Sportsbook: +7,000
PointsBet has Hendricks as the 34th(!) most likely pitcher to win the 2021 NL Cy Young award, despite the fact that he was a top-10 vote getter last season and is routinely one of the top pitchers in MLB. Last season, alone, his 2.88 ERA ranked 7th in the NL and if he recorded just one more out, he would’ve been tied for the most innings pitched. Considering that the Cubs should be a contending team and he’s been a former Cy Young finalist and ERA-leader before, I think this is a no-brainer in terms of value.
Do I think Jacob deGrom has a better chance of winning it? Sure. Of course. But anyone who follows the Cubs closely knows how insanely undervalued Hendricks is here. And with Willson Contreras’ improved framing *plus* a better receiving backup catcher in Austin Romine *plus* improved defense across the diamond (particularly at second base and left field), I just see this as a good bet.
And you know what, I put my money where my mouth is, betting $100 on good old Kyle Hendricks at DraftKings for a potential $6,600 payout (PointsBet had higher odds, but I already had some funds in DraftKings, so I just did it there).
Cubs Over/Under Win Total
Now this is where I think things are really silly. I know the Cubs didn’t have the offseason we were hoping for, but they didn’t actually do as much damage as we thought. Kris Bryant is still here, Willson Contreras is still here, Craig Kimbrel is still here, etc. And more than that, they actually did make some significant additions in the outfield (Joc Pederson) and bullpen (Andrew Chafin, Brandon Workman), while replacing Yu Darvish with a quality starter in Zach Davies.
Does this mean I think they’re definitely playoff bound? I mean, I guess not, but look at these win total over/unders:
• Fanduel Illinois Sportsbook: Over 78.5 (-122), under 78.5 (+100)
• Draftkings Illinois Sportsbook: 78.5 (-112)
• BetRivers Illinois Sportsbook: 78.5 (-112)
• PointsBet Illinois Sportsbook: 78.5 (-110)
With the exception of FanDuel, who’ll give you even money if the Cubs fall under 78.5 wins this season, the sportsbooks seem to think very poorly of Chicago. So, yeah, I’m smashing the over 78.5 so unbelievably easily it’ll make your head spin. And, sure, I’m a homer for the Cubs, but come on … PECOTA has the Cubs at 85.2 wins (FanGraphs has them at exactly 78).
Last season, the Cubs won the equivalent of 91.8 games, without almost any meaningful offensive contributions from Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, and Anthony Rizzo. Even Willson Contreras played down. I know they lost Darvish, but the rest of the NL Central is still weak and the core is still here. I just think 78 wins is low.
If you don’t have one of those books above, I’d sign up, collect a deposit bonus, and bet it on the over.
NL Central Winner
I didn’t personally bet the over/under on the Cubs, specifically, but that’s only because I have the Cubs to win the division, which is a bolder bet, but also pays better. Check it out …
• Fanduel Illinois Sportsbook: +500 (4th)
• Draftkings Illinois Sportsbook: +425 (4th)
• BetRivers Illinois Sportsbook: +425 (4th)
• PointsBet Illinois Sportsbook: +430 (4th)
Once again … really? This is a no-brainer for me. There is no reason for the Cardinals to be +100, as they are at some books, when the Cubs are +500. They’re not 4-5x more likely to win the division, and so this bet has obvious value for me. Obviously, the big concern is that if the Cubs don’t get off to a hot start, they might sell off at the deadline, however, I think there’s at least a chance that they do get off to a hot start and look to ADD at the deadline to give this core its final shot.
And speaking of a hot start, the Cubs play the Pirates 12(!) times in the first half of the season and they also have all four of their interleague games against the Indians before the break. There are of course some tougher matchups in there, as well, but they will get chances *at home* against the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres in the first half, so it really comes down to how strong you think the Reds/Cardinals/Brewers are. I’m not particularly intimidated by any of those rosters, so I think a hot start and an NL Central run is perfectly plausible.
Other Random Bets:
Anthony Rizzo at +6,600 to lead the league in RBI? Eh, maybe. With Ian Happ’s on-base skills and Kris Bryant + Willson Contreras likely batting ahead of him, it’s certainly possible. Ditto Craig Kimbrel at +1,200 for most saves. He’s the *clear cut* closer on a team that could find itself in a lot of really close games. He hasn’t been on-top of his game this spring, but he finished REALLY strong at the end of 2020.
If Kris Bryant stays healthy and up in the lineup, he could also be a good bet for most runs scored (+6,000). That’s more of a moonshot, I’d say, but at +6,000, with his on-base skills, speed, and position ahead of Anthony Rizzo and Javy Baez? Come on. That’s a good bet.
So get out there and bet it all on the Cubs. I know I am.
You can mess around with this chart to find the right bet and book for you:
[metabet_core_futures_board league=”mlb” site_id=”bleachernation” style=”classic” hide_consensus=”yes”]
