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notre dame wisconsin odds pick prediction

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Odds, Pick, and Prediction

Sports Betting

Notre Dame is quickly earning a magician’s reputation after escaping yet another close affair last weekend. This time, the Fighting Irish outlasted Purdue in a highly physical dogfight to move to 3-0 on the season, but they get no reprieve this week when they travel to Soldier Field to face another bruising Big Ten opponent in Wisconsin.

Let’s jump into one of the best games on the Saturday slate with a look at the odds and matchups before making a Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin pick and prediction.

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Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Odds

Before we get into a pick for this one, let’s first take a look at the Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin betting odds:

Notre Dame+6.5 (-115)+190O 45 (-115)
Wisconsin-6.5 (-105)-235U 45 (-105)

Notre Dame currently finds itself 5.5-6.5 point underdogs on the neutral field, somewhat surprising given the program’s pedigree and current undefeated record. Bettors seem to agree with oddsmakers thus far, as roughly 65% of bets on the game are currently backing the Irish. The total here has dipped from an open of 47.5 to as low as 46 currently, following the 60% of bets coming in on the under up to now.

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Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Prediction

Encouragingly, at least for the Irish, is the fact that their defense looked solid last week, allowing just 13 points to Purdue after two underwhelming performances in its first two games of the season. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed less than 20 points per game on average for each of the last three seasons and last week’s effort gives hope they may trend toward that number once again this year. Those signs of recent defensive quality have helped steer us to an under play here that we believe still holds solid value.

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After all, the under has cashed in each of Notre Dame’s last five games at neutral sites as well as four straight as a dog at a neutral locale. The Irish, who are rarely spotted points via oddsmakers, have played six of their last eight under the number as underdogs.

Notably, Notre Dame plays its home games on FieldTurf and seems to slow down on real surfaces like Soldier Field has to offer, playing seven of its last 10 games under the total on grass. The Irish also enter this one having allowed 291 yards through the air to the Boilermakers. They played their next game under the posted number five of the last seven times after having conceded more than 280 yards passing.

Wisconsin makes the trip to Chicago feeling fresh, playing this one off a bye. The Badgers boast a punishing run game (11th most ypg in FBS) that can control the clock with a late lead. They can also lean on a defense that ranks second in the nation in total yards per game allowed (194.5 ypg), including an FBS-leading rush defense conceding just 33.0 yards per game. The Wisconsin defense has allowed less than 12 points per game thus far and will surely be anxious to get some hits in against Notre Dame’s quarterback Jack Coan, who was wearing Badgers red and white not so long ago.

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Wisconsin’s defense has started its season in dominant form, allowing just 16 points to Penn St. and seven points to Eastern Michigan. That EMU tally makes it 15 of the last 16 non-conference regular season games in which the Badgers have allowed 17 points or less, a run that includes five shutouts. They gave up just 7.6 points per game in that stretch, dating back to the 2015 season. This is just part of a bigger picture that has seen this defense allow less than 18 points per game in five of the last six seasons overall.


Game Pick

Before the bye, Wisconsin piled up 518 total yards of offense against EMU, despite throwing for just 166 yard. Meanwhile, it allowed just 92 total yards defensively in the 34-7 victory. Of interest to us in terms of the under here, the Badgers have played four straight under after allowing less than 100 yards rushing, nine of the last 11 under after giving up fewer than 20 points, and six of the last eight after conceding less than 275 total yards.

They have also played six of the last seven under the total after gaining over 450 total yards and five of the last seven after straight up wins by more than 20 points.

Both teams have tough opponents next and could choose to cruise to a gentlemanly finish if this one gets a bit out of hand one way or the other. Look for a fifth straight Wisconsin under against above .500 opposition here, especially with the Badgers on a current run of six straight regular season games staying under the total, all as favorites, with those games producing an average of just 30.5 total points per game.

Our Pick: ND/Wisc Under 46

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Author: BN Staff

From the collective mind of the Bleacher Nation staff.