NEWSLETTER
Wild Card Weekend: Chargers and Jaguars Same Game Parlay
The 2022 NFL season was a wild one. The Super Bowl champion from last season (Rams) flamed out in spectacular fashion while the Jaguars and Giants are both playoff teams after having top-5 picks in the NFL Draft. With most fantasy football leagues over, there is no better way to enjoy the playoffs than betting on player props. Same Game Parlays are a fun way to get involved with potentially massive payouts. I assembled an SGP for the Chargers-Jaguars game that pays out 22/1
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+2200 Same Game Parlay for Chargers-Jaguars
- Chargers -2.5 (-110)
- Chargers over 29.5 points (+210)
- Justin Herbert over 304.5 passing yards (+150)
- Travis Etienne over 94.5 rushing yards (+190)
One of the best parts about building same game parlays is that they can be correlated. If the Chargers score 30 points, there is a good chance Justin Herbert had success through the air and the Chargers won by 3 or more.
Chargers -2.5 and over 29.5 points
This is a rematch of an earlier game this season, but I expect this time to go much differently. The Jaguars won the previous game 38-10 with Justin Herbert turning in his worst game of the year. A lot of that had to do with the rib injury he suffered against the Chiefs in the prior game. Using 4for4.com’s free player stat explorer tool, Justin Herbert’s on-target throw rate every other game this season was 73.4%. Against the Jaguars, it was just 60%, his worst outing of the season.Â
With Herbert back at full health, the Chargers are going to lay a big number on the Jaguars here. The Jaguars pass defense currently ranks as a bottom-3 unit according to Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric, DVOA, and have really struggled down the stretch. CB Tyson Campbell has played really well but every other member of their secondary has been horrendous. The Chargers will likely skew pass-heavy to try and focus on beating the Jaguars weakness which is their pass defense
Justin Herbert over 304.5 passing yardsÂ
As I mentioned above, the Chargers have a fantastic matchup against the Jaguars secondary and are nearly at full strength offensively. Despite playing at less than 100%, Herbert threw for 297 passing yards against them last time. The Jaguars defense has also faced an incredibly easy schedule of passing offenses. They have faced two top-5 passing offenses according to DVOA efficiency in the Chiefs and Lions, allowing 330+ passing yards in both contests. Even though the Chargers’ season-long numbers don’t reflect a top-5 passing offense, with Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams (hopefully) healthy, they are among the best.
Travis Etienne over 94.5 rushing yards (+190)
The Jaguars have been specifically game-planning for their defensive opponents and while the Chargers pass defense has been solid, their run defense has been among the worst, ranking 29th in run defense efficiency. The last time the Jaguars played the Chargers they ran for 145 yards. I expect a heavy dose of Etienne regardless of game script and he is explosive enough to pick up a massive chunk on any given play.
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