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United Rentals 500 Picks: Brad Keselowski has started 2023 hot. Will it continue in the desert?

United Rentals 500 Picks: Can Brad K. get hot in Phoenix?

Sports Betting

The early season West Coast swing concludes this Sunday from Phoenix Raceway. This is the first short track on the schedule and as so, the first race using the new reduced downforce package. There are a lot of unknowns surrounding this change and the 50-minute practice run on Friday could give some clarity as to who the real contenders are. Before we see the drivers on track though, I always try to find numbers that should or could get worse afterwards. With that, here are my United Rentals 500 Picks to lock in before practice and qualifying.   

United Rentals 500 Picks – Pre-Practice/Qualifying Values

As Nascar unveils the new short track/road course package, there are a ton of unknowns for Phoenix. Although it’s probably advised to wait until after practice, I found a couple of odds I’m willing to back right now.

Aric Almirola -125 over Bubba Wallace (Caesars) Bet 2u to win 1.6u

Considering all the uncertainty surrounding the new short track package, matchups are a bit riskier than normal. Regardless, some within the sport are not expecting drastic changes to the cars and drivers with past success here, to still race well. All this “garage talk” as I’ll call it, made me like this driver matchup even more.

Bubba Wallace opened as a -125 favorite against Almirola but that didn’t last long. It has since been steamed in the opposite and in my opinion, correct direction. I grabbed Almirola at -105 earlier in the week and highlighted all the reasons why HERE.

Without giving the exact details away, this has been a very lopsided matchup in the past. No matter my fanhood or what we see in practice/qualifying, I expect this to continue.

Caesars Sportsbook



Brad Keselowski Top 10 +340 (FanDuel) Bet .5u to win 1.7u

He’s normally not someone I like to consider out of spite, but the number is too good. Brad had an extremely disappointing 2022 but has come out hot with unexpected speed in 2023.

He actually paced the field with 42 laps led in Daytona before wrecking late. Overcame 2 incidents and led 2 laps while finishing 7th at Fontana. Then ran inside the top 10 all race and was in line to be the top finishing Ford at Las Vegas before the late yellow. He was a top 10 betting favorite last week too.

Keselowski and RFK are clearly better in year 2 and Phoenix has been a decent track for the veteran. Prior to last year he had top 10 finishes in five of the previous eight races in Phoenix. And an 11th place run in which he led 82 laps. Much to my dismay, Brad K might be a legit weekly top 10 contender again. So I might as well bet it.

FanDuel Sportsbook

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We’ll get a much better read on this Sunday’s race after practice. So make sure to check back on Sunday as I reveal all my United Rentals picks and best bet. 

Vegas was very good to us as you can see HERE so let’s try to keep it rolling in the Desert. Good luck and cash them tickets!

Featured Image credit: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

Author: Brian Twining

Just a regular guy who absolutely loves sports. I've been playing, watching, and recreationally betting on sports for over 30 years. My favorite sports to attack at the sportsbook are Football (NFL/NCAAF), College Basketball, and most recently - the NASCAR Cup Series. I'm not an "expert" and I don't have or use betting models, but I do put in the research and apply that to my wagers which are mostly backed by the trending data with of course a little, as Gibbs from the show NCIS would say "Gut Feeling" contributing to the side chosen. Sports betting should be fun and enjoyable so always play within your means and NEVER chase your losses. You can follow me on Twitter @Brian_Twining - Let's try and win some bets!