NEWSLETTER
UFC 286 takes place on Saturday and gives us our second huge main event of the month. The Welterweight title is on the line as the champion Leon Edwards takes on the man he defeated for the title, Kamaru Usman. That bout highlights a 15-fight card in London, so be aware this card starts earlier than normal.
UFC 286: How To Watch
Where: O2 Arena, London
How to watch:
- Early Prelims, 1pm Eastern, ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass
- Prelims: 3pm Eastern, ESPN2/ESPN+
- Main Card: 5pm Eastern, ESPN PPV
UFC 286 Odds
Main Card
- Kamaru Usman -245 vs Leon Edwards(c) +205, Welterweight Championship
- Rafael Fiziev -225 vs Justin Gaethje +190, Lightweight
- Gunnar Nelson -350 vs Bryan Barbarena +290, Welterweight
- Casey O’Neill -170 vs Jennifer Maia +145, Women’s Flyweight
- Marvin Vettori -265 vs Roman Dolidze +225, Middleweight
Preliminary Card
- Jack Shore -500 vs Makwan Amirkhani +400, Featherweight
- Chris Duncan -115 vs Omar Morales -105, Lightweight
- Sam Patterson -275 vs Yanal Ashmoz +230, Lightweight
- Muhammed Mokaev -800 vs Jafel Filho +575, Flyweight
Early Preliminary Card
- Lerone Murphy -175 vs Gabriel Santos +150, Featherweight
- Christian Duncan -210 vs Dusko Todorovic +180, Middleweight
- Jake Hadley -380 vs Malcolm Gordon +310, Flyweight
- Joanne Wood -180 vs Luana Carolina +155, Women’s Flyweight
- L’udovit Klein -195 vs Jai Herbert +165, Lightweight
- Juliana Miller -435 vs Veronica Macedo +350, Women’s Flyweight
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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UFC 286: Edwards and Usman Complete the Trilogy
Kamaru Usman was looking to add another win to his already legendary UFC career on August 20 last year. Usman was 15-0 in the Octagon and looked to successfully defend his Welterweight title for a sixth time. He had already beaten the man across the cage from him that night. Usman beat Leon Edwards by unanimous decision in his second UFC fight in 2015. Usman went off as a -345 favorite.
Sports don’t go according to plan sometimes, though. Edwards stunned the MMA world with a head-kick knockout in the final round to win the championship. Edwards hadn’t lost since that first Usman fight, but had only finished two of his next ten opponents. So to say this was a surprising result would be an understatement.
So it’s unsurprising that Usman is a sizeable favorite in the 16th trilogy fight in UFC history. Despite the fight taking place in Edwards’ home country he’s a +205 underdog. Oddsmakers view the last fight as an aberration. That is fair considering Usman won three of the first four rounds on the official scorecards and would’ve won the fight by decision had he not gotten KO’d.
The crowd will certainly be behind the defending champion so if you want to back him on emotion go ahead. But it certainly seems like he’s fighting an uphill battle and Usman should get his title back.
UFC 286 Longshot Bet
The co-main event might be the most exciting fight at UFC 286. It pits Rafael Fiziev against Justin Gaethje in a battle of lightweight contenders. Not only is this fight important in the Lightweight division, it might just be an absolute BANGER.
Fiziev is the 6th ranked fighter in the division and has won six straight fights. He’s won performance of the night three times and fight of the night twice. He won three of his last four fights by knockout.
Gaethje is ranked third in the division and is ranked third in the division. He has lost two of his last three fights, but one of those was to Khabib Nurmagomedov who was on a different level from most fighters. Gaethje is 6-4 in the UFC and only one of his fights has ended via decision. Expect fireworks.
DraftKings Sportsbook has a promo for new users right now. If you bet a minimum of $5 you will get $200 in bonus bets immediately. Since you’re getting free bets just for making a single bet, the best strategy is to use that first bet on a longshot because at the very least you’ll have $200 in your account to play with.
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So we’re going to take a longshot result in this fight. Fiziev is a decent favorite in the fight at -225 and would vault himself into title contention with a win. Gaethje is in a bit of a slump with the two losses in his last three fights. Both of those losses were by submission. So let’s bet on it happening for a third time.
While Fiziev hasn’t won a UFC fight by submission, Gaethje is a proficient striker so look for Fiziev to take the fight to the ground. If he has ground control Gaethje isn’t likely to get knocked out from the ground so if this fight ends on the ground which is very possible, look for Fiziev to get Gaethje to tap.
Only one of Fiziev’s UFC wins has happened in the first round and this fight should be explosive, so let’s bet on it ending in the second round because Fiziev by second round submission is 40-1. If you bet $5 on it and it hits, you win $200. If it doesn’t, you still get the $200 just for making a bet.
UFC 285 Bet: Rafael Fiziev by Second Round Submission +4000
If you want more analysis and much more reasonable bets, check out the excellent preview over at 4for4 (andy please insert the 4for4 preview here)
