The Bears and Lions are set to face each other on Sunday at 1 pm. This game will mark the first time bettors in Illinois can legally bet on the Bears. So let’s take a look at the line for Bears vs. Lions as of October 28, 2020 7:41 PM.
The Bears-Lions line for Week 1 is currently set with the Bears as 3-point underdogs on the spread and an over-under of 43.5. The Bears are +125 on the moneyline, which implies a 44.4% win probability.
Bears vs. Lions Odds
The Bears are a 3-point underdog against the Lions, who opened at -1 with the line steadily moving in their favor.
William Hill actually had the Lions open as a pick ’em before sliding up to 2.5 at the time this data was provided to us:
The big news on the Bears, of course, is Mitch Trubisky getting the starting nod of Super Bowl Champion Nick Foles. There remains a lot of questions about the Bears’ offense in particular.
It’s worth nothing, however, that three points is typically the nod given in favor of the home team for an even matchup. So the line shifting in the Lions’ favor only implies an advantage on the virtue of them being the home team, which may not matter as much in 2020 with no fans in the stands.
The Bears are +125 on the moneyline. The Lions come in at -154.
We always like to look at “implied win probability” of the moneyline– effectively, what win percentage is implied by these Bears-Lions odds?
At +125, the Bears have an implied win probability of 44.4%. The Lions are 60.4%.
You may may notice that adding these two figures together exceeds 100. The difference is the sportsbook hold (or the vig). If there is 50-50 action on both sides, they would take a toughly 5% cut regardless of who wins.
The over-under for the Bears and Lions is set at 43.5.
Lots of low totals on the board this week, likely due to the lack of any preseason games. Offenses are expected to be rusty. For this game, if you consider a number of question marks on the Bears’ side of the ball and a solid Bears defense the Lions will match up against… well, you have something on the low end as well.
The total has held steady since it opened, ticking up half a point at a few sportsbooks.
Where Is The Money Going?
The money is all over the Bears, which is interesting when you consider the line movement going against them. Bet volume is split relatively evenly, but upwards of 76% of the money is on the Bears to cover.
The over is getting no love. 87% of the money is on the under.
Bears vs. Lions Props For Week 1
Player props aren’t quite available. They will be released closer to gametime. We’ll update this post when they become available.