You knew this was going to happen. You knew, despite a 2-0 start and a few good moments from Mitch Trubisky, that Matt Nagy was eventually going to go to Nick Foles. It was just a matter of time. Then, last Sunday, with Bears seemingly poised to suffer their first defeat, Nagy turned to the former Super Bowl MVP. What followed was a performance both stunning and, somehow, yet totally predictable.
Foles, with a touch of some of that magic he displayed in 2017 and 2018 with the Eagles, helped wipe away a 16-point fourth quarter deficit to keep the Bears perfect. Now, this week, Foles will try to hold onto that same magic against the Colts and Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich – the guy Foles credits with helping resurrect his fledgling career three seasons ago.
How’s that for a setup? Will Foles stay hot and move the Bears to 4-0, or will the Colts put an end to another budding Foles fairytale? Let’s get into it with our Bears vs. Colts betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions for this Week 4 matchup.
Bears vs. Colts Odds
The Colts have been favored in this contest throughout the week, but the line has expanded as of Sunday morning. Initially, Indy opened as a one-point favorite but is now favored by a field goal. Perhaps bettors anticipate the expected regression of a team that performed a high-wire act in all three of its September victories.
Meanwhile, the total, which opened at 45 earlier in the week, is now down to 43 points.
Here are the Bears vs. Colts odds as of Sunday morning:
|Colts||-3 (-110)||-148||O 43 (-110)|
|Bears||+3 (-110)||+128||U 43 (-110)|
|Colts||-3 (-110)||-160||O 43 (-110)|
|Bears||+3 (-110)||+140||U 43 (-110)|
Bears vs. Colts Preview
Facing a 26-10 fourth quarter deficit with 9:05 remaining last week, Nick Foles would engineer a series of potentially season-defining drives for Chicago, culminating with this 28-yard beauty to Anthony Miller for the go-ahead touchdown:
Foles to Miller. Bears lead!!! pic.twitter.com/GY2hPiFlaw
— Aldo Soto (@AldoSoto21) September 27, 2020
The throw kept an imperfect team perfect and provided the Falcons with yet another improbable defeat.
The Bears, whose wins have come against opponents that combined to go just 1-8 this season, will face a different tier of competition on Sunday afternoon in the Colts. Indianapolis is allowing an NFL-best 225.3 yards per game and 15 points per game, so it’s no surprise the unit is also among the league’s best when it comes to several other major statistical categories.
Needless to say, the Colts, with an outstanding defensive front and a play-making secondary that reaps the benefit of consistent pressure up front, should provide a much stiffer test this week — particularly for an offense that will be without the services of versatile running back Tarik Cohen, who suffered a torn ACL injury in Week 3 and will miss the remainder of the season.
Bears vs. Colts Odds Analysis
Let’t take a look at how the current market prices compare with FiveThirtyEight’s popular ELO model.
The ELO model has a very different projection than that of oddsmakers for Bears vs. Colts odds. The model projects the Bears as a two-point favorite, thus suggesting Chicago is getting five full points of value in terms of the spread. That’s one of the larger gaps I’ve noted between the market odds and an ELO projection this season.
Meanwhile, ELO gives the Bears a 58% chance of winning the game, which roughly equates to a -138 moneyline price. Given the Colts are as much as +140 on the moneyline at William Hill, ELO indicates there is significant moneyline value on the Bears in this spot.
Where Is the Money Going?
Let’s take a quick look at the Bears vs. Colts betting splits over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
As of early Sunday morning, 55% of bets and 54% of the money back the Bears. An overwhelming 85% of bets and 86% of the money is also on Chicago, while 80% of the bets and money are on the over of 43.
So, the public likes the Bears (by a small margin) and loves the deflated total.
How to Watch Bears vs. Colts
Due to COVID-19 postponing Chiefs-Patriots on Sunday afternoon, the Colts-Bears matchup takes over the national spot on CBS.
- Date: Sunday, October 4
- Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
- Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)
- Network: CBS
- Announcers: Greg Gumbel, Rich Ganon, Jay Feely
- Radio: WBBM 780 and 105.9 FM (Chicago), 93.5, 107.5 and 1070 The Fan and 97.1 HANK FM (Indianapolis)
How to Bet on Bears vs. Colts
Illinois bettors who have backed the Bears to win over the first three weeks have not only been rewarded for their faith but are probably thinking this whole betting thing is pretty easy. Chicago has yet to lose since legal sports betting went live in Illinois.
If you happen to be in IL, PointsBet continues to offer outstanding Bears bet boosts and a $250 first deposit match, which you can grab here.
Meanwhile, William Hill became the latest Illinois online sportsbook to hit the market, and it is offering bettors a $300 risk-free first bet that can be used on the Bears (or any other outcome). Get the offer here.
DraftKings Sportsbook is running back its new user sign up bonus of up to $1,000 in free bets and 100-1 odds on any NFL team to win this week. Get it by clicking here.
FanDuel Sportsbook recently unveiled a new $1,000 risk-free first bet deal. Get it here.
Bears vs. Colts Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise indicated.
Why Backing the Colts Makes Sense
- The Bears are just 3-6-1 ATS under Matt Nagy following games in which they were an underdog the previous week.
- The Colts are 5-0-1 under Frank Reich with a spread of three points or less.
Why Backing the Bears Makes Sense
- The Bears are 5-1 ATS in games with a line of -3 to +3 under Matt Nagy.
- The Colts are just 2-3 ATS as a road favorite under Frank Reich.
- Undefeated underdogs of three points or less are are 10-4-1 ATS in October games.
A Word on the Total
- The under is 10-2 in the Bears’ last 12 home games.
- The under is 8-3 in Nagy-coached games with a total between 41-43.
- The under is 11-6 in all Nagy home games.
Bears vs. Colts Prediction
I guess one of the lessons that can be extracted in the early-going this season is to never count out the Bears. Maybe they will look dead for three quarters and stun you at the end. Maybe they’ll dominate early and almost blow the lead late. To this point, however, it has not mattered because they are just one of a handful of teams that enters Week 4 with a perfect record. And, if you have been paying attention over the last few seasons, it’s probably a bad idea to count out the magic of Nick Foles.
With that being said, you know how sometimes you should learn a lesson, but it’s just impossible to wrap your mind around it? That’s pretty much where I’m at with the Bears right now.
Against a stout Colts defense, I think Foles will struggle this weekend. Moreover, I believe Reich, who was largely responsible for the Eagles’ magical 2017 Super Bowl run, is one of the NFL’s best coaches. I just think the law of averages, along with some difficult matchups, catches up to the Bears this week.
The line isn’t always telling us something — home underdogs, particularly ones with perfect records, have had success in October games, but in this case, I do believe the line is telling us something. And I believe it is telling us that we’re due to see the Bears take a step back to reality today.
Bets We Like
Give us Nick Foles to go under 235 passing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook and the Colts to win by 1-13 points (get it here).
All new players at DraftKings Sportsbook: Get the Bears, Colts, or any other NFL team to win in Week 4 at 100-1 odds (get it here).
Bears vs. Colts Pick
I’m rolling with the Colts to cover against the Bears.