Have a coin? Pick it up and flip it.
That’s basically what oddsmakers now suggest, as the Bears vs. Panthers odds for this Sunday’s matchup have shrunk throughout the week.
Initially, Carolina opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but heavy betting action on the Bears has swayed the betting line toward what essentially amounts to a pick’em.
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Bettors Love the Bears
FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook each made its latest betting splits data available on Thursday, and perhaps unsurprisingly, bettors at both books are riding with the Bears to knock off the upstart Panthers.
I mean, it makes sense. Nick Foles. Close game. Money.
Dear fans, #NFL football is so much more than physical ability.
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) October 9, 2020
And this isn’t just at DraftKings and FanDuel in Illinois. The data is pulled from all legal sports betting states where the platforms are active.
At DraftKings, the Bears are drawing 70% of all point spread bets and 74% of the handle, while they are also drawing 70% of the bets and handle at FanDuel.
Given the short spread, expect many bettors to bypass it altogether and play the moneyline market–one that is also dominated by Bears money at FanDuel with 91% of moneyline plays and 78% of the handle on Matt Nagy’s squad.
DraftKings is experiencing similar trends, as the Bears are pulling 74% percent of moneyline wagers and 85% of the handle.
It Doesn’t Always Pay to Fade the Public
While sharp bettors are often happy to fade the public, there is a trend worth considering before rushing to your phone to lock in a contrarian play.
Since the 2003 season, road underdogs of 1-1.5 points that are drawing the majority of spread action are 28-20 ATS in October. They are 22-14 ATS when also drawing the majority of the handle.
Don’t Believe Your Eyes?
Both the Bears and Panthers have had success shutting down the pass so far this season.
Chicago is limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 77.1 rating (No. 2) and a 57.4% completion percentage (No. 1).
Meanwhile, Carolina is limiting opposing quarterbacks to an 89.7 rating (No. 8) and just 6.3 yards per attempt, which isn’t great news for an inconsistent Bears offense that is still struggling to hit chunk plays.
However, those realities haven’t deterred bettors from jumping all over, uh, well, the over at 44.5 points.
At FanDuel, 85% of all totals bets and 89% of the money is on the over, while 83% of all bets and 72% of the handle are the splits at DraftKings.
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