NEWSLETTER
I saw a set of predictions/projections this weekend from Ken Davidoff, which was not necessarily something I was going to discuss outside of a Lukewarm Stove. The piece caught some eyes around the baseball media sphere because he’d predicted Bryce Harper to the Cardinals at 10 years and $330 million, which is not *COMPLETELY* bonkers, since the Cardinals do have the need and the money. Like I said, though, I was leaning toward just mentioning it, and not writing about it in a dedicated way.
But then I read about some of Cardinals President John Mozeliak’s comments to the STL Post-Dispatch, and it got me wondering how their offseason is going to play out. Recall, Mozeliak recently suggested that the Cardinals don’t need to sign any big-time free agents because they’ve consistently won without them, and it was easy to see that as some early excuse-making for not spending big.
The Cardinals just don’t land the biggest free agents. They tried to get David Price. They tried to keep Jason Heyward. Eventually, you question whether the financial commitment is really there to get the biggest deals done. Maybe they’re just trying to lean too hard on the fluffy selling points about the city and the history and the fans and whatever.
Yet when speaking about big signings, after extolling the virtues of signing with the Cardinals, Mozeliak conceded that what it’s really about for most free agents is money. That could be seen as more of an excuse for not pursuing top free agents – they only care about the money – but Derrick Goold seems to have also received it as a possible indication that now the Cardinals *will* be willing to spend big to add elite, impact talent. Goold put it this way: “The free-agent class that baseball has been waiting on and, in some cases saving for, opened officially Friday as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and a deep, rich group of talent became available to all interested teams. Or, as Mozeliak’s question implied: The highest bidders. With a stockpile of young pitching talent, a billion-dollar TV deal, and few longterm or high-dollar contracts, the Cardinals are positioned as well as any team in the majors to shoot for the stars.”
Before you balk at the idea of the Cardinals landing one of the biggest free agents in the last 20 years, don’t forget: it was just a year ago that the Cardinals were trying to take on a $200+ million commitment in Giancarlo Stanton. And owner/chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. at least says the Cardinals will be “open for business” on the premium players this winter.
The Cardinals have only about $160 million in payroll on the books for 2019 (with some arbitration estimates), so they could add a $30 million commitment without even approaching the luxury tax. Moreover, the have only $75 million on the books for 2020, and then barely anything after that. This is not an organization burdened by a lot of long-term deals. Just sayin’.
I wouldn’t bet on the Cardinals landing Bryce Harper, mind you. But I do think it’s worth keeping their considerable financial flexibility in the back of your mind. Maybe they’re tired of being runners up, and this is the time to land a 26-year-old superstar to be the face of the organization as guys like Yadi Molina, Matt Carpenter, Adam Wainwright age up?
Who’s excited about watching Bryce Harper dominate for the Cardinals for the next decade?
