NEWSLETTER
I just read a recap of a recent ‘The Walking Dead‘ episode, and man am I glad I bailed on that show years ago. But as someone who feels incredibly burned by great shows that turn into garbage later on, I’m sorry to those of you out there who’ve stuck it out. Maybe you’re still enjoying it. I hope you are. That was a great show for about four seasons.
•  It had to end eventually*, and last night it did for the Cubs. The seven-game winning streak is over, as is the streak of Frank Schwindel consecutively playing hero. He actually had an 0-fer last night, with his last at bat coming in the 8th (a fly out) before Ian Happ homered. The Cubs got that blast, plus another from Willson Contreras, and a pinch-hit dinger from Rafael Ortega. But that was it on the night, and it wasn’t quite enough, despite another surprisingly solid outing from Adrian Sampson. Not sure how long that’s going to last – nothing in the recent years of experience, the performance at Triple-A, or the peripherals this year suggest the success is even close to sustainable, but hey, you gotta give the guy some love while he’s getting this shot. Fun fact: right now, Sampson’s ERA is 47% better than league average … and his FIP is 41% worse than league average. You can outperform your FIP over a long period of time by way of contact management, but not by THAT much (and Sampson’s batted ball data ain’t pretty in any case).
•  *But what if the winning streak didn’t have to end?! If the Cubs had won out, they would’ve finished the season at 87-75. That wouldn’t be enough to compete in the NL Central (the Brewers already have 85 wins), but that second Wild Card spot? It would be a possibility. The Reds and Padres would’ve both been at 73 wins after last night, with 22 and 24 games to play, respectively. So the Reds would then have to go 14-8 to match those imaginary Cubs. The Padres would have to go 14-10. Would one of those two pull that off and/or go just a bit better to pass the Cubs? (Or obviously a team like the Cardinals or Mets or Phillies could have made a run.) It would have been close (if the Padres held their .529 winning percentage the rest of the way, they’d win 86 games), but it’s really possible that would’ve been enough to make the Wild Card Game and face either the Giants or the Dodgers. The Cubs, of course, would’ve won that game on a late Frank Schwindel grand slam. The Cubs would clearly be unstoppable at that point, sweeping their way through the playoffs, en route to the most improbable World Series Championship in baseball history. But then something awful would happen, because ‘What If … ?‘ has taught me that you can’t mess with things like that. The ensuing celebration leads to madness in the fan base, who decide to consume Wrigley Field, brick by edible brick. Or maybe Schwindel is revealed to be a time-traveling spy sent back in time to assassinate the Phillie Phanatic and generally sew chaos. Something like that.
•  In the reverse standings, by the way, the winning streak brought the Cubs to within a game of the Tigers for that 11th spot, which becomes the 12th spot in the draft because of the Mets compensatory pick at 11. In other words, the Cubs “fell” from 6 to 10, and are now at risk of dropping another two spots if the Tigers pass them. Unfortunately for the Cubs, the Tigers have a brutal schedule the rest of the way, with 15 of their remaining games against the Rays, Brewers, and White Sox.
•  Ian Happ Average Bat Watch: another great night and he’s up to a 97 wRC+ on the year, which means his overall season numbers are now 3% below league average. The average left fielder is right at 100, by the way, while the average center fielder is at 94. (Don’t make this out to be anything it isn’t: fun tracking a stat. My position on Happ remains unchanged regardless of how much more he racks up the rest of the way: he’s rebounded enough for me to say the Cubs should pretty clearly still tender him this offseason, but I don’t think you can say he should absolutely be locked into a specific starting outfield spot for 2022, such that you couldn’t consider X Move in the offseason. I’m good with him playing for the Cubs next year, particularly given the versatility, but I don’t want to see the Cubs refuse to consider some move because they feel like they already have left field locked up (or whatever).)
•  I wrote about Trevor Megill’s recent run of dominance this weekend, and, hey, I didn’t jinx him. The tall righty came on for two innings last night, and he was perfect, with three strikeouts. He has not walked a batter since July, and has a 42.6% strikeout rate during that time. Everything I wrote about him Saturday still applies, and my conviction that he’s gonna stick on the 40-man this offseason is only getting stronger by the appearance. That was far from a lock back at midseason.
Trevor Megill was bringing the HEAT tonight. pic.twitter.com/lcmJ0xxj2h
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) September 8, 2021
•  Jason Heyward was a late scratch last night with a hamstring issue, which may not be a long-term concern, but of course it happens at the same time Michael Hermosillo is out with a forearm issue, and he otherwise might’ve finally gotten a run of starts.
•  For those of you who are into it, you can get a free Bears jersey from Caesar’s as part of their kick-off week for the NFL, plus a $5,000 risk-free bet. Full details here, including eligible states. Make sure you’re in a state where it’s legal, and keep in mind that completing registration in Illinois right now requires a physical visit to a casino location (we’re hoping that goes back to mobile registration later this year).
Heads up! Big promo from Caesar’s, with a free Bears jersey and a $5K risk-free bet! Go here and see if you can participate in your state: https://t.co/UajmOI4ZlZ pic.twitter.com/IpiPooRoha
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) September 7, 2021
•  Cubs shortstop prospect Kevin Made, just 18 and in full-season ball, hit his first homer of the year last night. For funsies, it was a grand slam:
Kevin Made’s first Home Run of the year is a GRAND SLAM! 🔥
(📸: @Pelicanbaseball) pic.twitter.com/ePlAlNB7dN
— Cubs Zone ™️ (@CubsZone) September 8, 2021
•  Over the last month and a half, Made – who is considered an excellent defensive shortstop, too – is hitting .331/.351/.480 with a 124 wRC+. He’s striking out just 16.8% of the time, which is incredible given his youth and productivity. Obviously the 1.5% walk rate indicates he’s doing a whole lotta swinging, and as the pitching gets more advanced, they’ll take advantage of that. But it isn’t particularly surprising or concerning given his age and experience. Consider that Reggie Preciado, who we all like very much, is also an 18-year-old shortstop, but is currently playing in the Arizona Complex League rather than full-season ball. Made will turn 19 later this month and Preciado not until next May, but still. I don’t think anyone would’ve had Made as the better prospect coming into this season, and now I think many will … and that’s despite Preciado having a great year! I mean, you could make a credible argument now that Kevin Made is the best shortstop prospect in a system that features not only Preciado, but also Ed Howard, James Triantos, and Cristian Hernandez. Not sure how you could have him outside the system top ten now.
•  Speaking of Cubs prospects who have exploded their way into the top ten this year:
The number of seasons by 20-year-old or younger pitchers in the MiLB with at least 60 IP since 2006
2422
The number of those with a higher K% than 2021 DJ Herz
0
(this includes 2019 MacKenzie Gore)
— Steven (@GoCubs49) September 7, 2021
•  Cubs relief prospect Dakota Mekkes got to face his good friend and podcast-mate (and former Cubs prospect) Zack Short for the first time, and he was pretty clearly thrilled about the outcome:
You asked for video @ihapp_1?
Here it is…the first ever professional AB between @DMekkes7 and @zshort_20. pic.twitter.com/z0Ai0Ri6uj
— The Compound (@thecompoundpod) September 8, 2021
•  It’s OK to like Joey Votto:
Joey Votto is an amazing baseball player but he’s an even better human. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/P8kOUa79ie
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 8, 2021
•  You gotta be careful when you throw a sandwich like that:
The #HOTDOG🌭toss heard ’round the 🌎🌍
Coomer v @Royals all started on 9/8/2009 when the Royals mascot @Sluggerrr was accused by a fan of tossing a hot dog from top of the dugout with too much “mustard” hitting the fan in the face, causing injuries.
#BaseballandtheLaw 586-99 pic.twitter.com/O8bQX5TG8H— #BaseballandtheLaw 🏛 ⚾️ (@BaseballandLaw) September 8, 2021
•  Toys, cameras, mixers, and books are among your Deals of the Day at Amazon. #ad
•  Cool moment:
Darvish left a legend at the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and took off to the world. After that, Ohtani inherited his uniform number, and he also left a legend and flew to the world. pic.twitter.com/H5XqJaFqNn
— B.B. (@BB42_0131) September 8, 2021
