NEWSLETTER
Caught up in a five-game losing streak, things aren’t going to get any easier for the Chicago Bulls.
Seventeen games might separate the organization from their first playoff appearance since the 2016-17 season, but those 17 games currently constitute the 3rd-toughest schedule in the league, per Tankathon. Only the Lakers and Bucks face a tougher slate over the next month-plus, meaning the Bulls face the second-toughest draw in the East to end the regular season.
We’ve seen what this rough schedule can do over the past week, as the Bulls have tumbled down the standings into the conference’s 4th spot. The Boston Celtics now sit just one win away from pushing the team further down the totem pole. I know this stretch has created a rather uneasy feeling, particularly because only the top-6 seeds avoid the Play-In Tournament. But the good news is that Chicago dipping that low feels pretty unlikely.
As NBC Sports Chicago’s Rob Schaefer points out, the team is still 4.5 games up on the 7th-place Raptors. They also still have an opportunity to claim a tiebreaker advantage over both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. Of course, we can never say never in the NBA, but things would have to go remarkably south to give up a 4.5-game lead in the final 17.
Pardon me as I go knock on every piece of wood in my apartment.
Have seen a few comments on Bulls falling to play-in. Not a reasonable fear at this point. Still 4.5 up on 7th-place Toronto, have winnable games vs. DET/CLE/SAC up next. Staying in 4 is important, but they're still there, and still have opportunity to get tiebreaks vs. BOS/CLE
— Rob Schaefer (@rob_schaef) March 8, 2022
Also, for what it’s worth, Five Thirty-Eight, ESPN, and Basketball-Reference all have the Bulls with a more than comfortable 97 or 98 percent chance to make the playoffs. For Five Thirty-Eight and ESPN, that is the 5th-best odds in the conference — and it’s 6th-best on Basketball-Reference. So the question right now isn’t whether or not the Bulls can finish in the top six (they have seemed to store up enough wins) but rather where exactly the team will be seeded.
Holding onto the No. 4 spot is not impossible, especially when we consider the Bulls have one more game against both the Celtics and Cavaliers (the two teams that sit right behind them in No. 5 and No. 6, respectively). Also, putting the hardest strength of schedule in the East aside, the Bulls will still get to face several teams they beat earlier this season, including the Pistons, Kings, Raptors, Knicks, Wizards, Clippers, Hornets, and Timberwolves.
With all that said, blocking the Celtics from a continued ascent up the league ranks will not be easy. Boston has won eight of their last 10 games, while Chicago holds just a .500 win percentage. Overall, they have lost only two games since the start of February, and they now hold the league’s 4th-highest Net Rating. The one saving grace for the Bulls is the Celtics will see the 6th-toughest remaining schedule the rest of the way, and the 3rd-toughest in the East, per Tankathon.
If the Bulls plan on moving back up the standings, they will likely have to take full advantage of their final two matchups against the Milwaukee Bucks. They will face the reigning champions on March 22nd in Milwaukee before welcoming them back to the United Center on April 5th. Considering the Bucks sit just one game ahead of the Bulls with the East’s toughest remaining schedule, there is a world where these battles play a significant role in determining seeding.
Why does this all matter? No playoff path will be an easy one in this tightly-contested Eastern Conference, but that could only make something like home-court advantage that much more important. Not to mention, rarely do you want to be the team stuck playing the hot hand, and you risk just that the lower your seed becomes. So with only 6.0 games separating the top-6 seeds, there is a lot that can change for the Bulls and their foes over the next handful of weeks. We’ll keep you updated.
