NEWSLETTER
I can lead this post off with good news (no, not THAT good news): we have heard barely anything at all today about the meetings between the players and owners as they negotiate the Collective Bargaining Agreement and try to avoid MLB’s new “deadline” for cancelling more games. If there is actually going to be progress, it’s probably for the best that there aren’t breathless reports about this or that or every little intentional leak for leverage.
So that’s why I haven’t had a post on this yet today, despite it being potentially a critical day in the lockout. That, and my general pessimism that a deal will actually get done.
But we’re starting to approach the evening hours, and if this becomes another situation where eventually there ARE lots of updates, I wanted to have a place to start sharing them. Thus, this post.
As an initial matter, here’s roughly where things stand (read these as pessimistically as possible if you want to guard your heart):
Per sources: MLB’s latest offer starts at $228m in ‘23, goes to $238m.
•Increased CBT comes in exchange for 45-day notice on rules changes, possible penalty for excessive spending.
•Showed willingness to go to $50 million in player pool in exchange for 14-team postseason.
— Russell Dorsey (@Russ_Dorsey1) March 8, 2022
(That was all known as of this morning *except* for the potential offer to up the bonus pool if the players go with 14-team playoff format.)
MLB still thought to want 14-team postseason (their way, which means 3-game first round, not 5, and no ghost wins). 12 teams still may be more likely but 14 could be a bargaining chip. Players seem open to it, to a degree. Overall: More optimism last 2 days but still much to do.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 8, 2022
Liam Hendriks, an alternate player rep on the White Sox, had this to say about MLB adding another self-imposed deadline to agree on a new CBA and still play a full season, seven days after a self-imposed deadline to begin Opening Day on time … pic.twitter.com/whPbhgY6v2
— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) March 8, 2022
Good news: Progress and compromises on both sides are being made in today’s MLB negotiations.
Cautionary news: It’s a similar sentiment of a week ago.
We’ll see if it culminates in a new CBA deal in the next 24 hours.— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 8, 2022
It’s wait-and-see mode. MLB and the MLBPA have spoken by phone since their last in-person meeting. Reporters are still gathered. There’s at least the possibility it’s a late night. But, as everyone will remember, a long night doesn’t mean they are, or will be, over the hump(s).
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 8, 2022
UPDATE (7:13pm ET): The implication here is that the sides have done a lot of talking, and now MLB wants to submit an official offer for the players to consider, having ALREADY been informed by the players how they might respond:
MLB expected to make written proposal shortly based on earlier conversations with union, sources tell @TheAthletic.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 9, 2022
Sounds like I’m putting on the pot of coffee again this week:
Talks are still progressing, key issues remain fluid, and it appears as if it could be an awfully long night of negotiations.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (8:05pm ET): A non-update update, just to confirm that the talks are still happening and the leaks are still non-existent:
Ha. Not there so not sure if in same room or anything but negotiations are happening, yes.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (8:10pm ET): Just saw this article from Chelsea Janes, which takes the temperature (general tone is still not optimistic, but not ruling out the possibility of a deal), and also confirms that the talks are still happening and there are no meaningful leaks. That is partly because of this humorous section:
Leaked details of offers and the resulting commentary on social media have recently frustrated those in the room — particularly some on MLB’s side — who felt outside pressure was changing inside outcomes. This was especially true a week ago, when the sides talked late into the night.
On the one hand, people shouldn’t overreact to incomplete details that they see leaked out. On the other hand, if your offer isn’t good enough to stand up to some tweets? It probably wasn’t a good offer to begin with.
UPDATE (8:18pm ET): Ok, some numbers:
MLB’s proposed luxury tax thresholds now start at $230 million and run to $242 million, sources tell me and @ByMcCullough. But there remain strings attached to CBT and other issues players are concerned with in MLB’s offer. Full proposal not immediately known.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
Those are finally some KINDA decent luxury tax numbers. But those mentioned strings – and the rest of the deal – are still a black box. My guess is, to get that CBT number that high means there are some super owner-friendly terms in the rest of the deal that maybe the players accept, maybe they don’t.
UPDATE (9:14pm ET): Some details from Bob Nightengale, who does tend to have good owner sources:
MLB's written proposal has been submitted to the union. Everything remains fluid as they negotiate deep into the night:
_Luxury tax: $230 million that escalates to about $242 million.
_Minimum salary: $700,000 that escalates to about $770,000
_Pre-arbitration pool: $40 million— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
On their face, these are not bad numbers. But this is obviously a very small part of the deal, and my guess is this comes with 14 teams in the playoffs.
UPDATE (9:34 ET): Many more details:
MLB’s proposal, sources tell me and @Ken_Rosenthal:
• Luxury tax thresholds: 230, 232, 236, 240, 242⁰
• Prearb pool: 40m, flat over time
• Pool counts against CBT (1.33m per team)
•Minimum salary: 700, 715, 730, 750, 770(cont’d)
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
Another major part of MLB’s proposal: MLB is tying removal of the qualifying offer to instituting an international draft.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
Some other details of MLB proposal:
• Players can be optioned max 5 times before being exposed to waivers
• Small markets can pick in draft lottery for two straight years before sliding to 10th pick.
• Large markets can pick only one year in lottery before going to 10th— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
It seems like the owners are finally making some more reasonable moves. On its face, this stuff does not look terrible to me.
UPDATE (9:48pm ET): So, this isn’t quite as high as I was envisioning that tip-top new tier, which I expect to have penalties that make it like a hard cap:
MLB’s proposed 3rd CBT surcharge would be $60 million above base level in a given year. As was the case in the last CBA, the 1st surcharge would be $20 miillion over, the 2nd $40 million over.
Take MLB’s proposed 2022 as example:
Base: $230m
1st: $250m
2nd: $270m
New 3rd: $290m— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
It’s not terrible, mind you. So far, nothing we’ve seen in this new offer is terrible. Which makes me suspicious!
UPDATE (10:07pm ET): Posturing, perhaps, but also possible there are truly terms in there that look bad to the players that we can’t quite see yet:
Players still looking over MLB proposal.
But, contingencies — like int’l draft & extra CBT surcharge — plus insufficient movement in other areas not leading to the conclusion they think a deal is close to being made.— Michael Silverman (@MikeSilvermanBB) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (10:20pm ET): It’s only a 12-team playoff proposal:
The MLB proposal tonight is for 12 playoff teams
— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) March 9, 2022
Honestly, this was the big shoe I was waiting for because I figured it was gonna *surprise* be for 14 teams. It’s not. So, again, FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, this is a dramatically improved offer, and one that borders on actually reasonable.
UPDATE (10:57pm ET): Optimism-ish, but also at least one big issue still:
International Draft now a major question, source tells me and @ShiDavidi. MLBPA believed to be in touch with Latin players to help determine next steps here. MLB seeks int’l draft but players have opposed in past.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 9, 2022
It’s not a surprise that the International Draft is seen as a major ask by the owners, because it fundamentally changes an entire portion of the player-acquisition world. Currently, even in a capped system, international prospects get to choose where to sign. In a draft, they no longer have that choice. Though MLB has claimed that their draft proposal would generate more money for international prospects, I think long term it’s pretty clearly a cost-control mechanism. So the players are hesitant to give up future freedoms for their future members.
UPDATE (Michael taking over, 11:24 ET): Looks like we really are due for a long night, with another MLB proposal on its way:
MLB has indicated they're willing to work all night after issuing a proposal earlier today. Players, meanwhile, are talking internally. Debate re. international draft ongoing.
Likely MLBPA will counter tonight.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (12:02 ET): Another deadline … comes and goes? I guess? According to Nightengale, we’re technically extended through sometime tomorrow afternoon, though it’s unclear if that really means much of anything. So far, none of the deadlines actually have (at least, not outside of the owners self-imposing them). Then again, just because they’re arbitrary doesn’t mean they don’t have some effect.
Another deadline come and gone. It is now Wednesday morning. The new deadline is now Wednesday afternoon for the two sides to reach an agreement before #MLB cancels another week of games.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (12:08 ET): It’s not entirely clear if this means both sides are going home, but it certainly seems like it. If I had to guess, I’d say you can safely go to bed, with dreams and hopes of a deal (that could preserve 162 games) tomorrow.
Tuesday is officially over here in NYC and both sides still talking, so that suggests the possibility of a 162-game season stays alive into Wednesday. #MLB
— David Lennon (@DPLennon) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (12:14 ET): Yes, it is over for the night. See you all tomorrow. Cross those fingers.
The Tuesday deadline is now when the two sides part for the evening. https://t.co/1fOF0Celqh
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (12:20 ET): Despite the fact that Bob Nightengale may have – once again – been a tad off, I still get the sense that nothing is expected to be completed this evening.
Neither side ready to call it a night just yet, according to people familiar with their plans. Sides convening by themselves for now.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (12:24 ET): How does the saying go? Just when you think you are out, they PULL YOU BACK IN.
Source: MLB officials are reviewing latest MLBPA counteroffer, with the possibility of a CBA deal before daybreak still alive. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (12:45 ET): If I had to guess, I think the players are keen on keeping the 14-team playoff format and the international draft as big bargaining chips for five years down the line. That’d be a smart move, but I wonder if they’ll be able to get this one done without compromising on one or the other.
The International Draft has been a sticking point all day in negotiations with players, ex-players, executives and agents weighing in and providing their input.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
Update (2:01 ET): Still going.
It’s 2am ET, and MLB and the MLBPA are still negotiating.
— Maury Brown (@BizballMaury) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (3:09AM ET): That’s a wrap:
MLB official says the Players Association requested to speak to its board again early tomorrow before coming back with a proposal, and the PA will be getting back to MLB tomorrow morning. So, to be clear, MLB is not canceling games at this moment right now.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
