NEWSLETTER
The Cubs close out the month of April having struggled in many of the ways we could have reasonably expected. They have yet to win a series, which is fairly incredible, even for a bad team. The Diamondbacks have won a series, and the Astros have won two.
The Series Preview gives you the rundown on what you need to know for the upcoming series. In that way, it’s kind of a preview. About a series. See how that works?
We’re Going Streaking
The Cubs salvaged their series in Milwaukee with a win yesterday, though it was still an overall loss. It was their first win in five games, and they are 8-16 on the year.
Believe it or not, the Cubs could technically still pass the Reds in the standings with a series sweep. The Reds scraped and clawed to get back to .500 after a rough start to the year, only to just this weekend be swept by the Braves. They’re three games below .500, and already seven games out in the NL Central.
Game Times and Broadcasts
Expected Starters and Lineups
These lineups are likely to be pretty close to what actually gets fielded, but you’ll want to check each day’s Pre-Gamin’ post for the actual lineup.
Cubs
Starters: Jeff Samardzija (1.53 ERA, 2.77 FIP; 3.00 K/BB), Edwin Jackson (5.02 ERA, 3.26 FIP; 1.53 K/BB), Carlos Villanueva (10.42 ERA, 4.14 FIP; 7.00 K/BB)
Lineup:
- Emilio Bonifacio, CF
- Luis Valbuena, 2B
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
- Nate Schierholtz, RF
- Starlin Castro, SS
- Mike Olt, 3B
- Welington Castillo, C
- Ryan Kalish, LF
- Pitcher
Reds
Starters: Alfredo Simon (1.30 ERA, 3.88 FIP; 1.89 K/BB), Tony Cingrani (2.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP; 2.00 K/BB), Homer Bailey (6.15 ERA, 5.36 FIP; 3.63 K/BB)
Lineup:
- Billy Hamilton, CF
- Joey Votto, 1B
- Brandon Phillips, 2B
- Jay Bruce, RF
- Todd Frazier, 3B
- Ryan Ludwick/Chris Heisey, LF
- Devin Mesoraco, C
- Zack Cosart, SS
- Pitcher
Hot or Not and Whom to Watch
The rotations in this series are a repeat of what we saw when the teams squared off 10 days ago. As I’ve said before, that can be tough for pitchers, given that the offenses have very recently had an opportunity to see the repertoire and adjust. At least it’s on both sides of the coin in this one.
Ryan Kalish was a great camp story, making the team after missing the last couple years with various shoulder and neck issues. He got off to an exceedingly rocky start, hitting .154/.241/.269 through his first 12 games. Since then, he’s been on a relative tear, bringing his season line up to a much more stomach-able .268/.333/.366.
Junior Lake is sprinting in the other direction, now at just .206/.242/.365 on the year. He is striking out in 43.3% of his at bats.
Jeff Samardzija 1.53 ERA is 8th best in baseball. His K rate is way down this year, which is by design, but his numbers otherwise really aren’t all that unsustainable. Probably the only clear item to regress is his HR/FB rate, which right now stands at a mere 3.8% (that’s partly why his xFIP is a much higher 3.36).
It kinda seems like Homer Bailey’s only good start this year was the one in which he faced the Cubs.
The Reds’ current WAR leader? That’d be Devin Mesoraco, whom Dusty Baker saw fit to sit quite regularly (of course, that was behind Ryan Hanigan, who was secretly quite good, and you could also argue that it was that kind of easing in process that has helped make Mesoraco into what he has been this year). He’s hitting .468/.509/.787 on the year, and yes, you are reading that correctly. Sure, his BABIP is .543, but his ISO is .319! The guy is killing the ball this year.
(UPDATE: But, as Jon points out, he was just put on the DL with a strained hamstring. No Mesoraco for the Reds this series.)
Also killing the ball in the way he does every year is Joey Votto. His .287/.438/.471 line is just so very Joey Votto.
Brandon Phillips advanced stat check: 70 wRC+ (100 is average). He’s striking out 23.4% of the time, and walking just 2.8% of the time. Unfortunately for Phillips and his self-created narrative, he also has only four RBI.
