In advance of today’s split squad Cactus League openers for the Chicago Cubs, it’s worth pointing out some things about Spring Training stats:
(1) The games do not count in the standings, and players are getting ready for the season. The ways in which these two facts impact performance are numerous, layered, and impossible to quantify. In other words, you must, must, must regard the stats cautiously in the Spring. Pitchers are throwing lots of fastballs (sometimes only fastballs). The hitters might be working as if they are in a count they are not in. The lineups are screwy. The substitutions are screwy. The rosters are screwy. It’s not quite real.
(2) All of that goes triple for veterans. A vet slumping in Spring means nothing. A vet breaking out in Spring means nothing. Sometimes, younger players do need to try and put on a good show in the Spring, and that can be reflected in the stats. But that’s basically never true for established players, and, even for younger guys, it’s all super small sample and subject to the not-quite-real-ness of point one.
HOWEVA …
(3) We’re starved for baseball by this point in the year, and this is still kinda sorta baseball. So it’s OK to enjoy the performances, and talk about the stats – because it’s fun. If you want to use it for evaluative purposes at the margins or where you know there’s a very specific competition going on? I think that’s fine. I’d put a little more stock in the scouting reports or coaches comments that you hear (they’ve got way more information, especially this time of year, than we do), but you can look at the numbers a little, too.
So, against that backdrop, we have to acknowledge that, for some positions and roster spots, Spring Training really does matter. And, this year, the Cubs seem to have an unusually large number of spots up for grabs or questions unanswered. In the Cubs’ case, that’s because of quality depth, though, rather than a bunch of terrifying unknowns. The addition of Phil Coke today, for example, really highlights the force behind the many questions facing the Cubs this Spring: so many quality options for so few spots.
Among the things to watch, and that could be affected at the margins by performance in Cactus League games …
The front four of the Cubs’ rotation is basically set, but who’s going to win that fifth starter job? I think Spring performance, scouting, and health are going to go a long way to determining this one, together with what the Cubs are able to do roster/trade-wise. I’ve written at length about the fifth starter competition if you missed it.
Similarly, and relatedly because of the spillover, the bullpen isn’t quite yet fully set. Assuming health, it’s a very good bet that all of Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Neil Ramirez, Justin Grimm, and Jason Motte will have jobs. The Cubs are likely to carry seven relievers to start the year, so that means two more spots to be won among a large group of primarily lefties, a reverse-split righty, and guys who don’t make the rotation (some of whom – Tsuysohi Wada, Felix Doubront, Jacob Turner, Travis Wood, and Edwin Jackson – make things tricky because they can’t just be optioned to Iowa). And you also wonder when power righty Armando Rivero will get a shot.
The Cubs have some bench spots to sort out, too, which becomes extremely complicated when you factor in the uncertain starting situations at second and third base, when you factor in the significant positional versatility offered by many Cubs players, and the looming threat of having to carry three catchers for a little while. As you’ll see in a moment, even as I’m trying to address specific positions, the bench conversation necessarily comes up … and gets complicated.
Speaking of which, the Welington Castillo situation is likely to sort itself out by the end of the Spring, and scouts will be watching him closely.
At second base, specifically, the Cubs would probably love to see Javier Baez hold onto the gig and run away with it in the Spring. But I think it’s probably going to be tough to judge his readiness given the pitching he’ll be facing. The Cubs may have to make the Baez decision – starting at second, or optioned to AAA Iowa for more work – largely based on their own, internal evaluation, rather than the numbers he puts up in Cactus League play.
If it’s not Baez, second base could wind up going to Arismendy Alcantara or Tommy La Stella … who could, himself, be playing for a job at third base, too. And that’s where Mike Olt would like to win the job … and where Kris Bryant will probably eventually find himself, but probably not on April 5. Depending on who lands where, this all impacts the bench and outfield depth situation, too. It gets complicated very quickly, but, the main thing to note: because of all of the versatility, the Cubs can keep the best players and sort out the positions later. Guys like Olt, La Stella, Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake, etc., all have a realistic shot of making the team, even without a rash of injuries. In years past, it wouldn’t quite be that wide open, because positional placements were relatively narrow.
As the Spring goes on, we’ll also start to get a sense of the lineup Joe Maddon is thinking about using. So that will be fun.
Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here.
Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.
Not every game is a referendum on a team. Actually, come to think of it, a single game is NEVER a referendum on a team. Anyway, point is, a whole lot of teams are going to get stomped by these...
Pablo Aliendo gave the Tennessee Smokies an early lead on Tuesday night. Matching up with the Rocket City Trash Pandas, Aliendo sent a ball deep into left field during the 2nd inning. The homer gave the Smokies an early 1-0...
You know that expression, when it rains, it pours? This is like that, except instead of raining, it is pouring deluxe turds. Just an absolute monsoon of shit. Another Cubs injury issue to another key Cubs player: https://twitter.com/maddie_m_lee/status/1790522697002455532 So, Nico...
CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs were shutout in the opener against the Braves last night. And it doesn't figure to get any easier against a resurgent Chris Sale tonight. Here's how Craig Counsell will line 'em up against the 35-year-old...
I had the weirdest reaction to what is objectively bad injury news on Adbert Alzolay just now. According to Meghan Montemurro, medical imaging confirmed that Adbert Alzolay has a right flexor strain. While I should have been upset to learn...
The Chicago Cubs' President of Baseball Operations just hopped on 670 The Score On the Bernstein & Holmes Show, discussing a number of Cubs-related items. He led things off with a discussion of newly-acquired reliever, Tyson Miller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hes1lI-8ZCI So, then,...
There is nothing Shota Imanaga can't do. Going up against one of the best teams in baseball — and best overall offenses versus LHP — on the road, without his best stuff, Shota Imanaga tossed 5.0 scoreless innings in Atlanta, with...
Baseball's top two pitchers in the ERA department squared off last night and did not disappoint—that and more in today's MLB Notes. Shōta Imanaga Was Awesome (Again), But So Was Reynaldo Lopez I've watched a lot of Reynaldo López, given...
The Chicago Cubs minor league affiliates were off on Monday, so it's time to take stock of some recent hot (and not-so-hot) performers inside the Cubs Top 25 prospects down on the farm in today's Cubs Farm Report. Cubs Farm...
I've gotten back into baseball cards, which, among other things, sends me down a lot of Memory Lanes. You pull a particular card, you think about that player, and you have various memories. It's part of the fun. The other...
Not every game is a referendum on a team. Actually, come to think of it, a single game is NEVER a referendum on a team. Anyway, point is, a whole lot of teams are going to get stomped by these...
Pablo Aliendo gave the Tennessee Smokies an early lead on Tuesday night. Matching up with the Rocket City Trash Pandas, Aliendo sent a ball deep into left field during the 2nd inning. The homer gave the Smokies an early 1-0...
You know that expression, when it rains, it pours? This is like that, except instead of raining, it is pouring deluxe turds. Just an absolute monsoon of shit. Another Cubs injury issue to another key Cubs player: https://twitter.com/maddie_m_lee/status/1790522697002455532 So, Nico...
Caleb Williams clips, however brief, will always grab my attention. Because while I can tell myself over and over again that I will not get googly eyes over spring practice videos, the reality is that I can't wait to see...
If you are a Philadelphia Phillies fan and looking to catch their games, you can watch most of them on TV with a cable subscription or via streaming with one of the many different apps. Let’s break down the cable...
Oh hey! Blackhawks' star Connor Bedard scored his fifth goal of the World Championships for Canada on Tuesday afternoon. https://twitter.com/BN_Blackhawks/status/1790468565675483262 Bedard helped Canada sprint to a 6-1 lead... which evaporated as Austria scored five unanswered goals in the third period...
The Bronx is booming! Yankee Stadium crackles with energy as the New York Yankees chase another World Series title. Whether you're a die-hard Yankees fan bleeding pinstripes or a baseball enthusiast captivated by the American League East race, their remaining...
I had the weirdest reaction to what is objectively bad injury news on Adbert Alzolay just now. According to Meghan Montemurro, medical imaging confirmed that Adbert Alzolay has a right flexor strain. While I should have been upset to learn...
Chicago Bears offensive tackle Kiran Amegadjie is reportedly signing his rookie deal. NFL reporter Aaron Wilson has details on the contract, which includes: A $1.121 million signing bonus Annual workout bonus of $50,000 per year from 2025-27 Total deal worth...
The countdown has begun for the highly anticipated PGA Championship. As the second major of the 2024 calendar, this prestigious event will grace the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, from May 16-19. This year marks the 106th edition of the championship,...
NEWSLETTER
In advance of today’s split squad Cactus League openers for the Chicago Cubs, it’s worth pointing out some things about Spring Training stats:
