Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round Picks & Predictions

Apr 19, 2024

It’s time for the best postseason in all of professional sports – the Stanley Cup Playoffs! With first-round matchups set to get started this weekend, our esteemed panel (Tab and Matt) decided to take a stab at a few predictions with each series. Let the fun begin!

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers sportsbook promo codes — (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

(1) New York Rangers vs (WC2) Washington Capitals

Matt

Winner: Rangers in 5

Series MVP: Mika Zibanejad

Why: It’s pretty simple for me. Washington was a nice story this season bouncing back from multiple injuries and a tough start, but the Rangers are just better. The Caps emptied the tank to get here. The Rangers still were playing for seeding down the stretch, so it’s not like they had the last few weeks off. Washington’s minus-37 goal differential in the regular season was the worst for a playoff team since the mid-90s. Unless Charlie Lindgren steals a series, this one like wraps up for the Rangers quickly.

Tab

Winner: Rangers in 4

Series MVP: Chris Kreider

Why: Everything Matt said applies here, specifically the minus-37 goal differential for Washington. But I’ll take it one step further: the Caps backed into the playoffs with a 4-4-2 mark over their last ten games — games they had to win to get in. The Rangers have been in for weeks and finished 7-3-0. Easy pick, and I don’t think Washington gets a single game in the series.

(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs (3) New York Islanders

Matt

Winner: Hurricanes in 6

Series MVP: Jake Guentzel

Why: The Islanders turned things around when Patrick Roy took over midseason, and while they’ll always be a tough out come playoff time with their defensive prowess and how difficult they are to play against, I just don’t think they can keep up with Carolina. The Hurricanes have firepower up and down the lineup, and the additions of Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov have given them proven playoff winners.

Tab

Winner: Hurricanes in 5

Series MVP: Seth Jarvis

Why: For me, this series is about who can finish. Carolina finished the regular season with 44 regulation wins, tied for second in the entire NHL. The Islanders? Only 29 regulation wins — fewer than the non-playoff Penguins, Wild, Flames, Blues and Flyers. Also, only Florida and Dallas had more than Carolina’s 25 road victories this season. They win, no matter where the game is played.

(1) Florida Panthers vs (WC1) Tampa Bay Lightning

Matt

Winner: Lightning in 7

Series MVP: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Why: Sure, this kind of feels like the year Florida should get over the hump of big brother Tampa in the playoffs, but until they do that I’m just not going to pick against the Lightning. Tampa has the best playoff goaltender in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and they have the most prolific point-producer in hockey with Nikita Kucherov. I think the Panthers are the better team, but until they prove they can get by big brother I just can’t pick them in this matchup.

Tab

Winner: Lightning in 6

Series MVP: Nikita Kucherov

Why: Guess who’s the highest-scoring team in the NHL since March 1? The Lightning, who have average 4.00 goals/game over their last 20 games. They also have the fourth-best power play in the league (27.4 percent) and the best penalty kill (93.3 percent) in the entire league since March 1. Florida ranks 15th in goals per game (3.14), 26th on the power play (16.4 percent) and 7th on the PK (82.8). Tampa’s rolling people over the past six weeks, and I expect that to continue.

(2) Boston Bruins vs (3) Toronto Maple Leafs

Matt

Winner: Bruins in 7

Series MVP: Charlie McAvoy

Why: Sure, Toronto FINALLY got by the first round last season with a seven-game series win over Tampa, but I just can’t trust them over Boston. The goaltending has always been an issue this time of year for the Leafs, and that feels like the case again this year. One thing is for certain, with the combined firepower between these two rosters this could be a very fun series.

Tab

Winner: Bruins in 7

Series MVP: David Pastrňák

Why: It sounds like William Nylander is a question mark for the series, though Toronto head coach Shelden Keefe said he’s “probably” for Game 1. If he isn’t 100 percent, that’s a problem. I’m not a huge fan of either of these teams, but think there might be a little bit of a hangover from Auston Matthews not getting his 70th goal to close out the season. Also, huge advantage Boston between the pipes.

Western Conference

Stanley Cup Playoffs: Stars vs Golden Knights — (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

(1) Dallas Stars vs (WC2) Vegas Golden Knights

Matt

Winner: Stars in 7

Series MVP: Joe Pavelski

Why: Vegas is the champ, and it will take Dallas’ best shot to take them out, but I think this year they have what it takes. The Stars have felt like the most complete team in the Western Conference this season, and I think this will be a BANGER of a series that the Stars take on home ice in seven games. Both teams play very fast and very physically, and it feels like a heavyweight fight. Dallas gets over the hump, but will it take too much out of them for a deep run?

Tab

Winner: Stars in 5

Series MVP: Jake Oettinger

Why: I think Dallas might be the most complete team in the West. They have an all-world goaltender, excellent defense and plenty of offense. Vegas has some guys coming back off IR and that’s always a wild card, but I just think this Dallas team is built for a deep run.

(2) Winnipeg Jets vs (3) Colorado Avalanche

Matt

Winner: Jets in 6

Series MVP: Connor Hellebuyck

Why: Goaltending. That’s the long and short of it. Both teams have very skilled and deep rosters, and honestly, Colorado’s is probably better. But Connor Hellebuyck felt like he was on another level this season. The Jets’ advantage in net is massive in this series, and great goaltending can get you really far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tab

Winner: Avs in 6

Series MVP: Nathan MacKinnon

Why: I totally understand and appreciate the praise for Hellebuyck; he should win the Vezina this year. But here’s my thing: the Avs were an NHL-best 31-9-1 on their home ice this year. The only other team to win 30 at home was the Rangers (30-11-0). MacKinnon is one of the best players on the planet and I have concerns that Winnipeg can create as many scoring chances as Colorado in the series. Colorado only has to steal one in Winnipeg if they hold true to form in Denver.

(1) Vancouver Canucks vs (WC2) Nashville Predators

Matt

Winner: Canucks in 6

Series MVP: Elias Pettersson

Why: Nashville was awesome in the second half of the season, and I think they’ll make this a fun series but Vancouver is just so deep up and down the lineup with young talent. It’ll be a fun series but I think the Canucks are just the better team.

Tab

Winner: Preds in 7

Series MVP: Juuse Saros

Why: I’m going with my gut here. The Canucks sprinted to a wonderful start and settled a bit down the stretch. I wonder if their youth will show and the veteran Preds can take advantage of that and steal a game or two.

(2) Edmonton Oilers at (3) Los Angeles Kings

Matt

Winner: Oilers in 7

Series MVP: Connor McDavid

Why: It feels like we get this series every year, and it always ends up being a blast. These rivals always make things happen in the playoffs, I think this will be an awesome back-and-forth seven games that the Oilers end up winning because they have Connor McDavid and the Kings don’t.

Tab

Winner: Kings in 7

Series MVP: Quinton Byfield

Why: Since March 1, these teams are almost identical statistically. They both allow only 27.4 shots on net per game, the Kings PK is 0.9 percent better than the Oilers’ and Edmonton’s power play is only 0.7 percent better than LA’s unit. The biggest difference that matters to me: LA is allowing almost one-third of a goal less per game on the same number of shots. I like the size of LA in this series and think this is going to be a coming out party for Byfield on a national stage. I would argue no team has more pressure on it to win now than the Oilers, and that can impact everyone in the room. LA has guys with rings.

Stanley Cup Prediction

Matt

Winner: Hurricanes over Stars in 7

Conn Smythe: Jake Guentzel

Tab

Winner: Hurricanes over Stars in 6

Conn Smythe: Seth Jarvis
Note: Back in September when I turned in my season predictions at The Fourth Period, I had Canes over Stars in the Stanley Cup Final. I’m sticking with that now.

written by

Matt Rooney

Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.

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Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round Picks & Predictions

Eastern Conference

(1) New York Rangers vs (WC2) Washington Capitals

(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs (3) New York Islanders

(1) Florida Panthers vs (WC1) Tampa Bay Lightning

(2) Boston Bruins vs (3) Toronto Maple Leafs

Western Conference

(1) Dallas Stars vs (WC2) Vegas Golden Knights

(2) Winnipeg Jets vs (3) Colorado Avalanche

(1) Vancouver Canucks vs (WC2) Nashville Predators

(2) Edmonton Oilers at (3) Los Angeles Kings

Stanley Cup Prediction

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