NEWSLETTER
Earlier this week, Scott Wheeler at The Athletic rolled out a fun mailbag that was focused on the 2024 NHL Draft. Lots of good stuff in there; highly recommend it. But there were a couple thoughts that stood out to me that I felt were worth a little extra attention.
Combined Rankings
The first and biggest one that grabbed my eyes was his comments on comparing this year’s draft class to last year’s “historically good” draft class. I’m a big fan of making these comparisons because it helps us to try to establish some relative value around players in the upcoming draft.
Wheeler notes that the top of last year’s draft dominates the top of his combined rankings, but the 2024 draft class represents incredibly well in the overall depth at the top of the draft. Here’s how Wheeler positioned his rankings and then his top 18:
Slotting only using where I was at on the 2023 kids pre-draft, and not what’s happened since, the combined ranking of the top prospects from each would probably look something like this:
- Connor Bedard (’23)
- Macklin Celebrini (’24)
- Matvei Michkov (’23)
- Adam Fantilli (’23)
- Leo Carlsson (’23)
- Will Smith (’23)
- Artyom Levshunov (’24)
- Ivan Demidov (’24)
- Cole Eiserman (’24)
- Zayne Parekh (’24)
- Sam Dickinson (’24)
- Zeev Buium (’24)
- Anton Silayev (’24)
- Zach Benson (’23)
- Gabe Perreault (’23)
- Berkly Catton (’24)
- Konsta Helenius (’24)
- Cayden Lindstrom (’24)
First, I like that Wheeler went with his pre-draft rankings/perception of prospects when making this list rather than allowing the seasons since last year’s draft to potentially influence the rankings. He notes that Ryan Leonard would probably be ranked higher if he considered his production this season, but he stuck with where he had him before the draft last year. I would be interested to see where he would have Oliver Moore at this point as well.
Second, Wheeler is admittedly higher on Eiserman that some others at this point in the pre-draft process. I’m not sold that he’s drafted ninth in the upcoming draft at this point, but a lot of that has to do with the strong class of defensemen in this draft.
Which is the next point that Wheeler makes in an answer to a follow-up question about how last year’s defensive draft class compares to the class of 2024. His response: “I’m higher on every one of the top-five D in 2024 than I was on all of the top-five D in last year’s draft.” His rankings above make that absolutely clear.
Other 2024 Draft comments
Wheeler is asked how high he thinks Tij Iginla could go in the upcoming draft. I think if Calgary can hang out somewhere between 9-12 in the draft, they’ll take him; the story of him playing where his dad carved out a Hall of Fame career would be wonderful. And, frankly, that organization needs a PR win. Here’s what Wheeler said:
There are scouts (a minority, but some) who think Iginla belongs in the edges of the top-10 conversation. I obviously view him more as at the front of that very next tier in the 12-16 range.
Finally, Wheeler is asked about which prospects have an especially high compete level — something that should interest us as Blackhawks fans because that’s something the organization clearly values in players they want in the rebuild. He immediately identifies Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Stian Solberg as two that stand out in that regard.
Wheeler also lists Cole Beaudoin, Charlie Elick, Liam Greentree, Tanner Howe, Cayden Lindstrom, Carter Yakemchuk, Yegor Surin as players who have a strong compete level.
I’ve had Lindstrom and Brandsegg-Nygard coming to Chicago in a number of mock drafts over the past months. At this point, Lindstrom would be in play if the Blackhawks end up drafting in the 2-4 range in the first round, but I think Brandsegg-Nygard will probably be off the board before Tampa’s pick later in the first round. Howe is a guy I like as a second-round option for the Hawks if the slot is right; he isn’t a big guy, but he played well with Bedard in Regina last year.
