NEWSLETTER
Let’s get into some potentially Blackhawks-related free agent discussion to start our holiday weekend, shall we? A couple pieces dropped on Friday that got my attention, and I wanted to dig in with some thoughts. Pierre LeBrun at The Athletic wrote a lengthy story looking at a wide range of free agents who could hit the market this summer that includes comments from agents, while Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff updated the list of the top 75 free agents for the coming summer with some thoughts on who had helped/hurt their stock.
In early May when Seravalli initially dropped his top 50 list with contract projections, I put together a list of players who intrigued me. Some of those players’ potential contracts have shifted since then based on their regular season production and postseason performances. But the comments from agents in the piece by LeBrun also factors into this conversation heavily.
I’ll start this discussion with a significant note about the Canucks heading into the summer from LeBrun’s piece:
They’ve got some key expiring contracts including restricted free agents Filip Hronek and Arturs Silovs plus the UFAs, including the likes of [Elias] Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Dakota Joshua, Tyler Myers, Teddy Blueger, Sam Lafferty and Ian Cole.
There are a few names in that list that have my attention. Let’s get into it, starting with a couple Canucks.
Dakota Joshua, LW
A potential Canucks departure — though LeBrun says Vancouver would like to keep him — a strong postseason has actually improved Joshua’s stock enough that his contract projections have moved up a bit. He was initially at three years by $3M AAV; the new projections have him at four years by $3.25M. Neither of those numbers is a deal-breaker for my interest in the player because of what he brings to the table. From LeBrun’s piece:
“Dakota had a terrific year and was impactful in the playoffs,” his agent Rich Evans said via text message Thursday. “Has developed into a player that can play in all situations and produce offense while also providing physicality. He leads all NHL forwards in hits during the playoffs. We have not had contract discussions during the playoffs.”
I liked everything about the player before a strong postseason run and the comments from his agent echo why I identified him as a target for the Blackhawks as an “identity forward” to target this summer. The Blackhawks don’t have any big-body hitters who can produce coming in the system; Colton Dach is really the only “power forward” in the system right now. He’s young enough (28) that a four-year deal wouldn’t be out of line for me.
Elias Lindholm, C
Lindholm was one of the headliners in Seravalli’s piece as a player who cost himself a big chunk of money after his trade to Vancouver. He’s a center with size who can play a top-six role, which is what interests me most about him. But when I look at Seravalli now estimating a contract at five years by $6.75M AAV, I’m certainly more interested than I was when he was talking about eight years at over $8M per.
While I’m not overly thrilled at giving five years to a player who’s coming off a pedestrian 15 goals in 75 games between two teams and turns 30 in December, the Blackhawks could look at offering a higher AAV on a shorter term to convince him to come to Chicago. The bigger question for me is whether or not the Blackhawks want to commit to a center for more than two years with the organization depth that’s coming (Frank Nazar, Ryan Greene, Oliver Moore, Dominic James and Aidan Thompson).
Patrick Kane, RW
Okay, let’s do this dance. Earlier this week, Scott Powers at The Athletic reported he believes “the Blackhawks are going to at least internally discuss whether to re-sign Kane.” That got a lot of buzz; I noted it in my bullets when I read the report.
The caveat: Powers admits that having discussions internally doesn’t necessarily change the reality that the Blackhawks walked away from Kane and traded him to the Rangers (his preferred destination) at the trade deadline last year. And Kane’s performance in Detroit after signing was strong enough and he looked healthy enough that there could easily be a very interested market for the future Hall of Famer.
LeBrun indicates Kane’s camp is looking for term this summer. How long? That’s up to the player and his representation to pursue. But when I read Seravalli’s projections had Kane at just a two-year deal at $6.3M AAV, that’s something I can see the Blackhawks at least being intrigued at engaging with this summer. My biggest question is around the term. If Kane’s willing to come “home” for two years to put a bow on his career and help the Blackhawks’ offense, and the front office likes the money, let’s go. I still have strong reservations with the report that it’s possible because nothing from general manager Kyle Davidson has made it appear there’s a reunion in the cards.
Viktor Arvidsson, RW
This is a fascinating one to consider for me with the Blackhawks as a potential fit. He was a massive disappointment for the Kings this year as he was limited to just 18 games because of injury, but here’s what his agent told LeBrun:
“Now that he’s healthy and feeling great, I think Viktor is ready for the next chapter in his career,” Arvidsson’s agent Kurt Overhardt of KO Sports said Thursday. “He just looks forward to helping a club succeed. Guys don’t become free agents that often in their careers. He gets to navigate through all the opportunities and see where the best fit is.”
This makes me wonder out loud if a shorter-term prove-it deal might be in the cards for a player who wants an opportunity to show he can still roll in a top-six role and help on special teams — all things the Blackhawks could offer him. Seravalli’s projections are three years at $4.75M AAV but maybe a one-year deal with the promise that he could be moved to a contender at the deadline (see Domi, Max) could be something he and his representation could get behind.
Right-Handed Defensemen
LeBrun noted that this could be a heavy summer for agents battling for dollars for right-handed defensemen; there are a bunch potentially becoming available this year, and teams need them. Here’s his list, which should also include Sean Walker.
Right-handed D are always in demand. We’ll see if Brandon Montour hits the market or not for Florida. And you’ve got Chris Tanev potentially, Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Dylan DeMelo, Tyler Myers, Matt Dumba and Alexandre Carrier among pending UFA right-handed D.
A player whose market figures to be loaded, his contract projection comes in at only three-years by $4.65M AAV. That’s a contract I think the Blackhawks could discuss; Sam Rinzel will spend at least one more year in college, and the Hawks only have Connor Murphy two two more years (and I will note his health will be an ongoing concern). This figure doesn’t eclipse what they gave Alex Vlasic and the term fits the timeline to have Rinzel (and potentially Artyom Levshunov) ready to take on more prominent roles on the right side with Seth Jones.
Walker was traded to Colorado at the deadline. LeBrun reports his agent has not had discussions with the Avalanche and his market might price the Flyers — his former team — out. If that’s the case, the dollars and/or term might be bigger than what Seravalli’s piece projects.
His fit in Chicago is an interesting proposition, and LeBrun wrote this:
The door is not closed on Roy re-signing with the Kings, but I don’t think the sides are close at this point.
“Have had some preliminary discussions in an attempt to find some common ground, and we will continue to work at it,” Roy’s agent Rich Evans said via text message Thursday.
Roy’s projection from Seravalli is five years by $5.6M AAV. I’m not sure that term lines up with the Blackhawks at this time, and the market will line up for Roy.
Carrier made my list of potential RHD free agent targets in early May as a guy who might pair well with one of the Blackhawks’ bigger prospects like Ethan Del Mastro. The Blackhawks know him well from his time in Nashville. His initial projection was three years by $2.7M AAV, but it’s gone up to a $4M number (still three years). I like the three-year term and the $4M isn’t a number I would shy away from. I will note that his skillset isn’t as much of a need if the Blackhawks opt to take Levchunov at No. 2 in the draft.
LeBrun wrote that “if the team and the player’s camp stick to their positions from before the trade deadline, this isn’t a deal that gets done.”
LeBrun didn’t write about Tanev, likely because his Dallas Stars are still playing. A lot of people in Chicago love the idea of Tanev being essentially for the defense group what Nick Foligno has been for the forwards: a dad-figure who can still play. But he’s likely a third-pair guy in Chicago as long as Jones and Murphy are here, with potentially elevated minutes in the event of an injury to either of those veterans.
My concern here is this: Seravalli indicates a projected contract of three years by $4.7M for a player who turns 35 in December. My fear is that, by the third year of the deal, he would be viewed similarly to how fans talked about Brent Sopel’s contract back before the Blackhawks made the leap up the standings. Love the player, love the potential fit. Not a huge fan of more than two years here (I would be willing to offer an elevated dollar amount if necessary to avoid a third year).
