NEWSLETTER
I’d be foolish not to recognize my own bias. As someone who cares far too much about the Chicago Bulls organization, I may be able to talk myself into things that others can’t. With that being the case, I understand that I’m far more likely than some to make the following remark: People are too low on the Chicago Bulls right now.
Again, considering I’m someone who types words daily about this frustrating team, some aren’t going to put much stock into that comment. But let me also say that obsessors like me can often be the harshest critics. I haven’t hesitated to call this team out on their inconsistent play and stress significant concerns about the trajectory of the franchise in the past. Doubling down on a core of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic doesn’t at all feel like the wisest long-term move, which is why I was disappointed not to see greater change over these past few months.
At the same time, we can’t let these thoughts on the long-term outlook keep us from honestly evaluating this specific 2023-24 season. In other words, we have to look at this upcoming year in a vacuum, and I’m not sure some were doing this in earnest when making their predictions. I’m talking about you, ESPN.
ESPN recently released their win-loss predictions for every team in the Eastern Conference. Not only did they have the Chicago Bulls winning three fewer games than last season with a record of 37-45, but they had them missing the Play-In Tournament altogether. This also comes just a few weeks after they released their post-free-agency power rankings, where they put the Bulls 22nd overall and 10th in the East.
Fanduel Sportsbook currently lists the Bulls over/under win total at just 36.5, while the Draftkings Sportsbook isn’t much more forgiving with their over/under (37.5). Tie in things like the Action Network’s recent Top-100 players list that features Zach LaVine at 37th, as well as The Athletic’s player tiers that placed LaVine in the 4C tier behind guys like Austin Reaves and Nic Claxton, and the lack of optimism for anything Chicago Bulls is overwhelming.
To be clear, I’m not even trying to claim the Chicago Bulls deserve significantly more respect. I found the NBA dot com’s power rankings that placed them 8th in the East to be pretty reasonable! This acknowledged that they still have an uphill battle ahead of them, but that they also added some nice pieces that should have them fighting for a playoff spot as opposed to a “Play-In” spot.
The argument against Chicago, of course, is that we just watched them struggle to stay afloat and need a 14-9 stretch over the final few weeks to grab the last Play-In Tournament spot. This is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and what the Bulls have done isn’t all that impressive.
But my rebuttal to that would be that we saw this same core finish top 6 in the East just two seasons ago. Not to mention, they came out of the All-Star break strong last season and were only a handful of minutes away from becoming the first 10-seed to claim a playoff spot. I know, I know, I sound like the Bulls’ front office! But that truly is context we can’t completely throw out the window.
The same can be said about the additions of both Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig. Those are two players who come from winning organizations and will immediately enter the rotation. Both are above-average defenders and 3-point shooters. Carter can also push the pace in transition, while Craig gives the team another option on the glass. Is either a massive needle mover? No. But they are upgrades who should help this team play more balanced basketball.
Let’s also not forget that Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and All-Defensive First Team member Alex Caruso are good players! While we can criticize the fit of the “Big 3” all we want, talent is talent. In my opinion, these players at least give the Bulls a floor that is higher than a handful of teams around the league. This is especially true when we consider LaVine will enter the season fully healthy after needing a little over a month into last season to find his groove again post-surgery. We talked more about that here.
And, hey, what if young players like Coby White and Patrick Williams continue to improve? White played the best basketball of his career last season, while Williams is in a contract year and fresh off playing 82 games. The expectation for young players like that is a gradual improvement, so we shouldn’t forget to consider the potential impact of that.
For those reasons, my immediate instinct is that the Chicago Bulls should at least be able to reach the 40-win threshold this season. Do they end up many games better than a .500 team? I’m not sure yet! And, even if they do, it’s hard for me to have them winning a first-round series at the moment. Projecting they finish in the mid-30s and outside the Play-In, however, just feels like undervaluing what this veteran team can do. Barring any sort of trade deadline blow-up, I think this team has enough talent and experience to be – at worst – painfully average.
Who knows, maybe I’ll eat my words.
