Alabama vs. San Diego State Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Sweet 16

March 20, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (31-5) and the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs (29-6) will meet on Friday to compete for a spot in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. Alabama is favored by seven points in the Sweet 16 matchup, which begins at 6:30 PM on TBS. The matchup has an over/under of 137.5.

Alabama vs. San Diego State Odds

Alabama odds to win: -344
San Diego State odds to win: +271
Spread: Alabama (-7)
Total: 137.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, March 24, 2023
Time: 6:30 PM ET
TV: TBS
Where: Louisville, Kentucky
Venue: KFC Yum! Center

Who Will Win Alabama vs. San Diego State?

Alabama and San Diego State Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

Alabama has a 12-10 record against the spread in games it was favored by 7 points or more this season.

These teams average 154.2 points per game combined, 16.7 more than the total of 137.5.

Alabama and San Diego State have seen their opponents average a combined 6.2 fewer points per game than the point total of 137.5 set for this matchup.

The average total for Alabama’s games this season is 13 more points than the total of 137.5 in this game.

The average over/under in Aztecs games this season is 2.5 fewer points than the point total of 137.5 in this outing.

The Crimson Tide have a 21-15-0 record against the spread this season.

The Aztecs’ ATS record is 17-16-1 this season.

Alabama Stats & Insights

Alabama outscores opponents by 14.1 points per game (scoring 82.3 per game to rank fifth in college basketball while allowing 68.2 per outing to rank 122nd in college basketball) and has a +508 scoring differential overall.

Alabama records 40.9 rebounds per game (first in college basketball) while allowing 32.8 per outing to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 8.1 boards per game.

The Crimson Tide knock down 4.7 more threes per contest than the opposition, 10.1 (ninth-most in college basketball) compared to their opponents’ 5.4.

Alabama’s 97.5 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 81st in college basketball, and the 80.8 points it allows per 100 possessions rank fifth in college basketball.

The Crimson Tide score 89.5 points per game when playing at home, compared to 73.7 points per game in road games, a difference of 15.8 points per contest.

San Diego State Stats & Insights

San Diego State outscores opponents by 8.8 points per game (posting 71.9 points per game, 175th in college basketball, and giving up 63.1 per outing, 25th in college basketball) and has a +308 scoring differential.

San Diego State grabs 33.1 rebounds per game (95th in college basketball) while allowing 27.8 per outing to opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 5.3 boards per game.

San Diego State connects on 7.1 three-pointers per game (209th in college basketball) at a 34.9% rate (138th in college basketball), compared to the 6.4 its opponents make, shooting 28.8% from deep.

San Diego State averages 96.5 points per 100 possessions on offense (107th in college basketball), and allows 84.7 points per 100 possessions (28th in college basketball).

In 2022-23 the Aztecs are averaging 6.5 more points per game at home (75.4) than on the road (68.9).

Alabama Key Players to Watch

Brandon Miller leads the Crimson Tide in scoring and rebounding, accumulating 19.1 points and 8.2 boards per game.

Jahvon Quinerly is Alabama’s best passer, distributing 3.6 assists per game while scoring 8.7 PPG.

The Crimson Tide get the most three-point shooting production out of Miller, who makes 2.9 threes per game.

Mark Sears and Charles Bediako lead Alabama on the defensive end, with Sears leading the team in steals averaging 1.2 per game and Bediako in blocks averaging 1.9 per contest.

San Diego State Key Players to Watch

Matt Bradley is the top scorer for the Aztecs with 13 points per game. He also adds 3.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game to his scoring output.

Nathan Mensah puts up a stat line of 5.9 rebounds, 6.1 points and 0.6 assists per game for San Diego State to take the top rebound spot on the team. Lamont Butler holds the top spot for assists with 3.3 per game, adding 8.6 points and 2.7 rebounds per matchup.

Adam Seiko is the top shooter from the three-point line for the Aztecs, hitting 1.6 threes per game.

San Diego State’s leader in steals is Butler (1.5 per game), and its leader in blocks is Mensah (1.5 per game).