NEWSLETTER
In early August 2012, the focus of a great deal of Chicago Cubs attention was squarely pointed at Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters. The two were, at the time, among the top legacy positional prospects in the organization, and they were certainly the two that were closest to the big leagues. Each was a former first round pick, and each was dreamed upon as a future piece for the big league team. When would they make their debut, we wondered, and more importantly: how would they fare?
On August 5 of that year, the two were called up on the same day, and, in a demonstration of what that 2012 season was like, the call-ups were met with overwhelming excitement. I tried my best to describe, as of that day, where things stood with the two prospects:
Jackson, 23, is ostensibly hitting decently at AAA Iowa: .256/.338/.479. But that line comes with a couple huge caveats. His BABIP is .372, which is higher than his career average (though, to be sure, Jackson will always have an elevated BABIP relative to the rest of the league, thanks to his speed, his left-handedness, and his high rate of line drives). And, relatedly, he’s striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances. I really can’t overstate how troubling that is. He does play quality outfield defense, and runs the bases extremely well, so there’s value there. But if he can’t get that strikeout rate down below 30%, he isn’t going to hit .225 in the bigs, and the value of his secondary skills becomes largely irrelevant (in other words, he becomes a slower Drew Stubbs).
Vitters, 22, is hitting .304/.356/.513 at AAA Iowa, where he is a bit young for the level. He’s walking more than ever, and showing more power than ever. Though you always have to take PCL numbers with a grain of salt, it’s fair to say Vitters is having the best offensive season of his career. The issue with him, however, has long been the defense at third base. Scouts say he just doesn’t have it – decent arm, but weak range and lead hands. I’m waiting to see for myself before passing judgment, but his 21 errors in just 95 games at third base this year certainly don’t impress.
Unfortunately, the well-founded concerns associated with Jackson and Vitters proved prescient, as so often is the case with prospects (always remember that!). Jackson continued to struggle with serious contact issues, both in his call-up and in the ensuing 2013 season. Vitters, who also struggled in his limited time in the bigs, was eventually moved off of third base, and enters 2014 as an outfielder. Each battled injuries in 2013, though it’s important to draw at least one distinction: when healthy, Vitters hit very well in 2013. Jackson, who dramatically reworked his swing, unfortunately did not.
And now the two former top prospects are linked once again, as each has arrived early to Spring Training with the hopes of securing a big league job (as outfielders, and with a crowded bench, they could actually now be in direct competition). Even before that, however, there’s merely a hope that they can show they’ve still got a future with the organization. Each is currently on the 40-man roster.
There are a handful of great write-ups on Jackson’s and Vitters’ offseasons, and where their minds are at right now as Spring Training begins: Patrick Mooney on Jackson here, Carrie Muskat on Jackson here, and Jesse Rogers on Vitters and Jackson here. Among the takeaways:
