The Javier Baez Promotion: Reactions, Expectations, Fun, Etc.

javier baez featureWhen big things happen, people have thoughts. The people …

  • Writing at Baseball Prospectus, Mauricio Rubio and Jordan Gorosh emphasize patience when it comes to observing Javier Baez in the early going. A selection from the lengthy piece: “It’s no secret that Baez is going to have a steeper learning curve than most prospects. His game is still raw, and the approach at the plate needs a lot of work. It’s partly a pitch recognition issue, coupled with a violent swing that leaves him exposed to pitches down and out of the zone. Right now, falling behind in the count is a near automatic out, so he’ll need to stay in fastball counts or ambush early. Pitchers know this and will likely try the ‘hard in/soft away’ method. With his current plan of attack, that seems to be the most logical idea. The adjustment to major-league offspeed offerings is going to be the biggest hurdle for Baez, as he’s likely going to be eaten alive for the first go around the league. He’s a mistake hitter – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, because 30 or 40 mistakes a year could go into orbit – but well executed sequencing is going to cause Baez to scuffle. While it’s fair to be hopeful thanks to Baez’s aforementioned ability to adjust, adapting to major-league pitching is a whole different animal. Temper expectations, because it could take 1,000 PA before it starts to come together.”
  • Over at Baseball America, J.J. Cooper has a similar take. A selection from the piece (which includes fun videos and GIFs): “What he doesn’t have yet is a consistent understanding as to how to handle pitchers who can locate quality secondary stuff in the zone. Baez’s power comes with a lot of swing and miss. His 30 percent strikeout rate this season is the third worst in the Pacific Coast League. Baez does not tone down his swing when he gets behind in the count, and his aggressiveness ensures that crafty pitchers can get him to expand his zone and chase. He’s dead last among PCL qualifiers in swinging-strike percentage (source: Minor League Central) and also dead last in swing-and-miss percentage (37 percent of all swings).”
  • Keep in mind on both of those reads, even as your instinct may be the fear that they skew negative, they are saying Baez’s potential is otherworldly. But he’s a 21-year-old with – at least until very recently – an aggressive approach, and a history of too eagerly swinging at everything that starts near the zone. No one is saying don’t be excited – they’re just saying that it could take time for the real fruits to come.
  • Sahadev Sharma was on the Effectively Wild podcast to discuss the Baez call-up, and I think just about everything he said was spot-on.
  • Ryan Parker digs in deep on Baez’s swing mechanics, with big league comps, and a discussion of minor adjustments that could benefit the slugger.
  • If you want to do something really stupid to yourself, check out what the Oliver projections (which often skew optimistic, if I’m remembering correctly) are saying about Baez’s next five years. The short version? Home runs increasing from 35 to 46, wOBAs increasing from .337 to .385, and WARs increasing from 4.3 to 6.7. Nope. Won’t let myself believe that. Not right now.
  • Matt Spiegel does an excellent job of summing up what the Cubs universe can be like in situations like this:
  • Fun, fun, fun:
  • Fun, fun, fun part 2:
  • https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks/status/496638256977813504

  • And one more from me: I don’t think you can draw bright lines – nothing is fundamentally different in the Cubs’ organization today from yesterday – but this promotion is another in a series of moments that we’ll look back on in future years, when the Cubs are competing, and we’ll know it was all happening then.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 5, Pirates 4 – May 12, 2024

    It's Mother's Day. I'm hanging with the family. I don't feel like being as pissed off as a game like that threatened to make me. So I am QUITE relieved by that 10th inning (and the fact that the Cubs...

    Christopher Morel Kicks Off Mother’s Day With Some Love

    I'll just presume he was sending this one out for mom. And I'll also presume that the knee is indeed feeling good. Home run number nine on the season for Christopher Morel: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1789713524052087082

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Pirates (12:35 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs have played thirteen series so far this season, and this is already their eighth rubber match. Let's see if Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs can bring this one in. Chicago Cubs Lineup: Nico Hoerner, SS...

    Cubs Roster Move: Kyle Hendricks Activated to Start Today

    No surprises here, as the decision to start Kyle Hendricks this afternoon against the Pirates was made yesterday, but the news has officially hit the wire, and here it is. Kyle Hendricks Activated Kyle Hendricks is returning from his short...

    Horrible History, Morel’s Knee, Almonte’s Shoulder, Hoerner, Wesneski, Hendricks, Mervis, and Other Cubs Bullets

    Happy Mother's Day to the mothers among you, and to the mothers in my life! I'll be doing some extra family stuff today, so I'm gonna cruise through these Bullets ... Up front, because this was certainly the thing most...

    Kyle Hendricks Will Start for the Big League Cubs Tomorrow

    The Sunday TBD has been D'd, and it's going to be Kyle Hendricks coming back an outing early. Instead of making another rehab start at Iowa, Hendricks is going to be activated from the IL to rejoin the rotation tomorrow:...

    Enhanced Box Score: Pirates 10, Cubs 9 – May 11, 2024

    The Cubs came within 90 feet of keeping that ridiculous game going. No dice. Stupid game. Early on, it just kinda seemed like the Cubs might lose a perfectly normal - bad, but normal - game. Justin Steele did not...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Pirates (3:05 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — After a little tease yesterday, Seiya Suzuki is actually, officially in the Cubs lineup today. And he'll be greeted with a tough matchup against the top pitching prospect in Major League Baseball. Welcome back! Chicago Cubs Lineup:...

    Oh, Good, Yency Almonte is Now Also Hurt

    Today the Chicago Cubs placed reliever Yency Almonte on the Injured List with a right shoulder strain. Jose Cuas has been recalled from Iowa to take his place in the bullpen. Almonte, together with Mark Leiter Jr., had been performing...

    Credit to Assad, Huge Ups to Brown, Hopes for Taillon, Happ’s Bat and Glove, Bellinger History, and Other Cubs Bullets

    How did I not know that the Aurora Borealis was going to be visible last night?!?!? I woke up this morning to all these awesome pictures from friends and other people in the area, and I'm MISERABLE ABOUT IT. With...

    Latest News

    How to Watch Mariners Games: Full 2024 Schedule, Live Stream and More

    The summer sun is heating up Seattle, and so are the Seattle Mariners! With the 2024 MLB season in full swing, the M's are battling for a playoff berth, and the remaining games promise to be electric. Whether you're a...

    Astros vs. Athletics: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

    In a series opener on Monday, Spencer Arrighetti will take the mound for the Houston Astros (15-25) against Ross Stripling and the Oakland Athletics (19-23), with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 PM ET at Minute Maid Park.Keep reading to see...

    How to Watch Brewers vs. Pirates: Live Stream or on TV

    William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers (24-16) host Connor Joe and the Pittsburgh Pirates (18-23) on Monday, with first pitch at 7:40 PM ET.Keep scrolling to find out all the details on how to watch Milwaukee take on Pittsburgh live.When...

    How to Watch Rangers vs. Guardians: Live Stream or on TV

    The Texas Rangers (22-20), led by Marcus Semien, host Josh Naylor and the Cleveland Guardians (25-16) on Monday at 8:05 PM ET.The article below will provide you with everything you need to watch Texas take on Cleveland.When is Rangers vs....

    How to Watch Braves vs. Cubs: Live Stream or on TV

    The Atlanta Braves (24-12), led by Marcell Ozuna, host Nico Hoerner and the Chicago Cubs (24-17) at 7:20 PM ET on Monday.Keep reading to find out how to watch the Atlanta-Chicago matchup below.When is Braves vs. Cubs and when does...

    Phillies vs. Mets: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

    Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies (28-13) when they visit starting pitcher Sean Manaea and the New York Mets (18-20) at 7:10 PM ET on Monday.The article below will give you everything you need to watch Philadelphia...

    How to Watch Nationals vs. White Sox: Live Stream or on TV

    C.J. Abrams and the Washington Nationals (19-20) visit Gavin Sheets and the Chicago White Sox (12-29) at 7:40 PM ET on Monday.Keep reading to find out all the details on how to watch Washington square off against Chicago live.When is...

    Tigers vs. Marlins: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    The Detroit Tigers (20-20), with Kenta Maeda on the mound, host the Miami Marlins (11-31) who will hand the ball to Sixto Sanchez, at 6:40 PM ET on Monday in a series opener.Find out how to watch the Detroit-Miami matchup...

    How to Watch Orioles vs. Blue Jays: Live Stream or on TV

    Gunnar Henderson and the Baltimore Orioles (26-13) host Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) on Monday in a series opener, with first pitch at 6:35 PM ET.The article below will give you everything you need to know...

    How to Watch Red Sox vs. Rays: Live Stream or on TV

    In a series opener on Monday, Kutter Crawford will start for the Boston Red Sox (21-19) against Zach Eflin and the Tampa Bay Rays (20-21), with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET at Fenway Park.If you're planning on watching...

    more cubs news