Early May sure is full of these name days. Right before the month begins, people do that “It’s Gonna Be May” thing. May 1 is May Day. Then there’s the ‘Star Wars’ day on May 4, and then you’ve got Cinco de Mayo right after. And who could forget National Lost Sock Memorial Day on May 9?!
I am headed to Chicago this evening to be there for tomorrow’s series opener against the Yankees in the bleachers. If you’re going to be around at the game tomorrow, come say hey. I’ll be out there in right field somewhere …
[adinserter block=”1″]
Dayn Perry at CBS ranked the top 100 players in baseball right now based solely on their performance through the first month of the season. In other words, no projections, no explaining things away, and no contracts. Just who have been the best 100 players so far this year. Is it surprising or unfair to learn that the Cubs have just two players on the list? Anthony Rizzo is 81st, and Kris Bryant is 17th. I could make an argument that Rizzo should be a lot higher (but he’s slipped a little bit in terms of results so far this year, with a 122 wRC+, 60th in baseball). Outside of that, though, who would you say belongs on the list? By WAR, Jason Heyward and Addison Russell (90 and 91) are the only other positional Cubs in the top 100, but you have to factor in pitchers, too, when creating an overall top 100. On the pitching side, Jon Lester is 56th in WAR, and John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks are also in the top 100, but each has been worth only 0.1 WAR. Not exactly top 100 performance material.
The only Cubs pitcher reasonably high on the WAR list is last night’s starter, Jake Arrieta, who is 36th. He doesn’t show up in the CBS rankings, though, and I can’t really argue with it – by results, Arrieta has a 4.63 ERA, and always seems to be giving up early runs that put the Cubs in a hole. As an outsider, you don’t look at that and say this guy has been a top 100 performer this year.
But – and last night was another perfect example – I actually still think Arrieta’s looked pretty good this season. We’ve talked ad nauseum (and partly explained away) the velocity stuff, and to my eye, his command has looked overall much better this year than last. His strikeout rate is up 4 percentage points from last year to a whopping 27.9% (15th best in baseball). His walk rate is down to a ridiculous 6.1% (22nd best). Those numbers alone tell me he’s doing some very good things. His results have been blown up by a .333 BABIP (up nearly 100 points from last year, and 15th highest in baseball), a 69.2% LOB rate (22nd lowest), and a 17.6% HR/FB ratio (21st highest). Normally, you’d see the fantastic K/BB numbers with the terrible other numbers, and you’d say this is the clearest case of small sample bad luck results ever. I’ll leave open the possibility that pitching more in the zone, with less velocity, has yielded more hard contact for Arrieta and that has increased BABIP, reduced LOB, and increased HR/FB. Totally possible to explain SOME of the changes in those numbers. But then again, Arrieta is 5th in baseball in soft contact. He’s 46th in hard contact, which is not good – and we’ve definitely seen him give up some very hard-hit balls on elevated pitches – and, again, that could be some of this. But, on the whole, my eyes and these numbers tell me Arrieta’s been pretty good this year, results be damned.
(Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
[adinserter block=”2″]
Again, though, circling back to a very fair set of top 100 rankings that feature very few Cubs: it’s good that, despite that, the Cubs are 15-12 and in first place in the NL Central.
Aw, old friends Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney have love for each other:
Meanwhile in the AL East, the Red Sox and Orioles were still feuding, with Kevin Gausman ejected from last night’s game after hitting a Red Sox batter with a curveball. Probably no intent there? Sure. But this is what happens when things get out of hand.
Statcast had that at 468 feet, which is a massive bomb, but doesn’t that seem like it had to be even further? I know the way the Trop is laid out is deceiving on the distance, but good God. That thing was unbelievable.
Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here.
Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.
Happy Mother's Day to the mothers among you, and to the mothers in my life! I'll be doing some extra family stuff today, so I'm gonna cruise through these Bullets ... Up front, because this was certainly the thing most...
The Sunday TBD has been D'd, and it's going to be Kyle Hendricks coming back an outing early. Instead of making another rehab start at Iowa, Hendricks is going to be activated from the IL to rejoin the rotation tomorrow:...
The Cubs came within 90 feet of keeping that ridiculous game going. No dice. Stupid game. Early on, it just kinda seemed like the Cubs might lose a perfectly normal - bad, but normal - game. Justin Steele did not...
CUBS LINEUP — After a little tease yesterday, Seiya Suzuki is actually, officially in the Cubs lineup today. And he'll be greeted with a tough matchup against the top pitching prospect in Major League Baseball. Welcome back! Chicago Cubs Lineup:...
Today the Chicago Cubs placed reliever Yency Almonte on the Injured List with a right shoulder strain. Jose Cuas has been recalled from Iowa to take his place in the bullpen. Almonte, together with Mark Leiter Jr., had been performing...
How did I not know that the Aurora Borealis was going to be visible last night?!?!? I woke up this morning to all these awesome pictures from friends and other people in the area, and I'm MISERABLE ABOUT IT. With...
In 2015, Kyle Schwarber hit a monster home run onto the top of the right field scoreboard at Wrigley Field, where it stayed for the remainder of the postseason. Watching the game live, I remember thinking "Dang, he got all...
Usually, I like to use this space to celebrate a great game from a top Cubs prospect, but sometimes, it's important to note when the other thing happens. Last night, Cade Horton had his very first really bad start. He...
Although I'm sure Craig Counsell would've preferred not to have to use Ben Brown today, just in case Jameson Taillon can't go on Sunday. But *if* you were going to have to use Brown today, that was an absolute best-case...
Brief Delay: https://twitter.com/Pirates/status/1789062764675150018 CUBS LINEUP — In case you missed the good news/bad news report, Seiya Suzuki is BACK, but Dansby Swanson is on the injured list. The Cubs simply cannot catch an injury break this season, it's really wild....
The oddsmakers give the edge to the Colorado Avalanche on home ice (-135) over the Dallas Stars (+114) when they play on Monday, May 13 at 9:30 PM ET.Watch the NHL on Fubo!Avalanche vs. Stars Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Avalanche (-135)Underdog:...
The Carolina Hurricanes are slight favorites (-118) versus the New York Rangers (-102) on Monday at 7:00 PM ET, at Madison Square Garden.Watch the NHL on Fubo!Hurricanes vs. Rangers Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Hurricanes (-118)Underdog: Rangers (-102)Total: 5.5Best Hurricanes vs. Rangers...
Happy Mother's Day to all of the wonderful moms out there. My sons are incredibly fortunate to have a great mom and two wonderful grandmas still in their lives. We hear Blackhawks players talk about hot much they appreciate their...
Happy Mother's Day to the mothers among you, and to the mothers in my life! I'll be doing some extra family stuff today, so I'm gonna cruise through these Bullets ... Up front, because this was certainly the thing most...
Two of the league's top power hitters meet Sunday when the Seattle Mariners (21-19) and Oakland Athletics (19-22) take the field at 4:10 PM ET, live on NBCS-CA. Caleb Raleigh has 10 home runs for the Mariners (-244 favorites on...
Jo Adell leads the Los Angeles Angels (15-25) into Sunday's matchup with the Kansas City Royals (24-17) on a two-game homer streak. His Angels are underdogs for the contest, however, with bookmakers naming the Royals as -136 moneyline favorites. The...
The Los Angeles Dodgers (27-14) visit the San Diego Padres (21-21) at 4:10 PM ET Sunday in a meeting between two of the league's best hitters. Shohei Ohtani is batting .352 this year (second in the league) for the favored...
The San Francisco Giants (18-23) host the Cincinnati Reds (17-22) Sunday to close out a three-game series. The Giants are favored (-131) to win the rubber match, which starts at 4:05 PM ET from Oracle Park.Kyle Harrison will get the...
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs, it'll be the Indiana Pacers against the New York Knicks -- with Pascal Siakam needing to connect only once from beyond the arc...
The Indiana Pacers meet the New York Knicks on Sunday at 3:30 PM ET in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA playoffs, and if the Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton makes four 3-pointers, he'll beat his prop.Tyrese Haliburton's Three-Pointer...
NEWSLETTER
